The December 2012 presidential and parliamentary elections were again conducted under the terms of the 1992 Fourth Republican Constitution and as in 2008 were held on the same day – this time, Friday 7 December. The main contenders were the ruling National Democratic Congress (NDC) with John Dramani Mahama as its presidential candidate and the New Patriotic Party (NPP) with Nana Akuffo Addo as its flag-bearer. The list of eight candidates was completed by Kwesi Nduom of the Progressive Peoples Party (PPP), Abu Sakara for the Convention Peoples Party (CPP), Hassan Ayariga for the Peoples National Convention (PNC), Henry Lartey for the Great Consolidated Popular Party (GCPP), Kwesi Addai for the United Front Party (UFP) and Osei Yeboah, an Independent candidate. However, in the election build-up, only three of the minor parties’ presidential candidates seemed to be capable of having some impact on the overall results – Paa Kwesi Nduom was using his riches and effervescent personality to give publicity to the newly formed PPP, Abu Sakara of the CPP in televised presentations was displaying extensive knowledge and understanding of the issues facing Ghana, and the PNC had a national poster campaign and was now led by the younger and apparently more dynamic Hassan Ayariga in place of the four times loser Dr Edward Mahama.
The political background to the election was that the NDC had been elected for two terms in the 1990s in rather controversial circumstances following the transfer from military rule in 1992 (what the NPP termed ‘the Stolen Election’ and ‘the Bought Election’) with the NPP winning in 2000 and 2004. In 2008 the NDC very narrowly won both the parliamentary and presidential elections, the latter after a second ballot and a further vote in one constituency (Tain in Brong Ahafo Region) which had failed to hold a second ballot and which had an electorate larger than the majority of the leading candidate. In the event Professor John Evans Atta Mills was declared the winner with John Mahama as the Vice President. This victory fulfilled Samuel Huntington's requirement for a consolidated democratic polity – a second turnover of power, which indicates the recognition by both the political elite and public that when things go wrong it is the rulers and not the regime which need to be changed (Huntington 1993, 267).
The build-up to the election
Predicting election results in Ghana is a very hazardous exercise as the electorate is so varied between a highly educated elite and growing middle class, urban dwellers facing the economic and social difficulties of living in a low-wage economy, and rural people who to varying extents live on the margins of national society and who may be much more concerned with traditional family and village rivalries than the prospects of the national economy. However, the indications in the early part of 2012 were that the NDC would find it difficult to retain power. The 2008 election had essentially been won on the success of the NDC maintaining its support base in the Volta, Northern and two Upper Regions and by extending its appeal in the Greater Accra Region by exploiting the discontent of urban workers at the state of the economy and land issues, and in the Central Region by garnering support more effectively than in 2004 for their own son Professor Mills. By 2012, however, there was an atmosphere of disappointment that the oil production off the coast of the Western Region was not apparently providing tangible benefits for workers, living costs were continuing to rise with predictions of double-digit inflation by the end of 2012 (Daily Guide, 27 August 2012), allegations of government corruption were rife, and President Mills was largely invisible and believed to be ineffective because of ill-health. This situation suddenly changed with the death of 68-year-old President Mills in July 2012 and his replacement by the generally well-liked and more dynamic John Mahama. Two opinion polls prior to the election indicated just how uncertain the presidential election was:
The ‘big questions’ of the election
- 1.
A Northern president? The death of President Mills and the succession of his deputy John Mahama to the presidency meant that, for the first time since the short-lived Third Republic regime (1979–1981) of President Limann from Gwollu in the present Upper West Region, a Northerner was interim President with a real possibility of being elected for a full term. In early November he appealed to the chiefs and people of Nakpanduri in the Northern Region to end the sequence of Northern Vice-Presidents and enable him to ‘make them proud’ (www.Dagbon.net, accessed 3 November 2012). There had been one earlier attempt to break this syndrome in 2008 when Alhaji Mahama Iddrissu from Wa in the Upper West Region had unsuccessfully contested to be the NDC flag-bearer. To many educated Northerners this was a pleasing prospect, although the issue was rather confused by the fact that the CPP and PNC presidential candidates were also Northerners (Abu Sakara a fellow Gonja from Damongo and Hassan Ayariga from Bawku with a Mamprusi mother and Kusasi father). Moreover, any undue emphasis placed on this could alienate Southerners who are far more numerous and therefore prove counter-productive. Additionally the North is full of its own internal divisions, one of which is between the so-called ‘dominant’ tribes (the Gonja, Dagomba, Mamprusi and Nanumba) who had their own kingdoms in the pre-colonial period and were bolstered by the British when they tried to strengthen chiefly power in the era of ‘indirect rule’ and the ‘minority’ tribes (in terms of power rather than numbers), such as the Konkomba, Lobi and Nawuri who were dominated and sometimes exploited by the dominant tribes. The fact that Mahama is a Gonja should have garnered support from his fellow tribesmen but could possibly have the opposite effect among the latter groups, with a history of disputes between them and Gonja chiefs. Mahama explicitly addressed this in a rally in Saboba when he referred to a rumour that he as a Gonja head of state would ‘oppress Konkombas who had fought Gonjas in the past’ (http://ghanareview.com, accessed 15 October 2012).
- 2.
The death of President Mills. In 2008 the NDC had successfully gained the support of the Central Region from which Mills hailed. The succession of Mahama to the presidency was followed by the selection of another Central Region candidate to the post of Vice President and later as Vice-Presidential candidate for the election – Kwesi Amissah-Arthur – who had been Governor of the Central Bank of Ghana. Would this be sufficient to maintain Central Region support for the NDC? Also Mills’ death did create a great deal of both national sympathy and criticism of him and his regime was temporarily muted, so it was felt by many that prospects for the NDC's electoral victory were actually enhanced by his death.
- 3.
The Ya Naa affair. Divisions among the Dagomba of the Northern Region date back well over a century to disputes between the Abudu and Andani branches of the ruling family over succession to the paramountcy, and in recent elections this had been reflected in Andani support for the NDC and Abudu support for the NPP. The paramount chief of the Dagomba (Ya Naa Yakubu Andani II) was brutally murdered and beheaded in March 2002 when members of a rival family (the Abudu) attacked his palace in Yendi and set it ablaze. The NDC had gained a great deal of support in that region because of alleged links of leading NPP figures to his murder and the NDC's pledge to bring his murderers to account. This the government had failed to do, with the acquittal of a group of suspects in September 2010. The CPP had some long-standing support in the Dagomba area and there was a threat that they or some other party could capitalise on this failure, with a CPP rally in Tamale in early November making a strong appeal for support (www.dagbon.net, accessed 7 November 2012). Tensions between the Andani and Abudu families remained very strong throughout 2012 with one headline suggesting that ‘Yendi sits on a time bomb’ (www.dagbon.net, accessed 25 April 2012), so the potential for electoral impact remained strong.
- 4.
Other traditional rivalries. While there are numerous traditional disputes over chieftaincy, ethnicity and land in other parts of the country, the most violent, long-lasting and potentially the most politically significant lie in the Northern, Upper East and Upper West Regions of the country (for detailed explanations and discussions of this, see Awedoba 2011; Kelly and Bening 2007). In Bawku in the Upper East Region the chieftaincy dispute between the Mamprusi and Kusasi dates back to at least the beginnings of colonial rule. In 2008 the NPP with particular support from the Mamprusi community had won the constituency of Bawku Central, with the successful candidate later being arrested and finally jailed over questions of dual nationality. As in the past violent incidents occurred in election year with a local NPP Assemblyman from the nearby village of Badoor being shot in February 2012 when returning home from Bawku (www.dagbon.net, accessed 25 February 2012). In Nakpanduri in the Northern Region, land disputes between the Bimoba and Konkomba led to several gun battles and the burning of houses in June 2012 (www.dagbon.net, accessed 6 June 2012. In Bimbilla, also in the Northern Region, tensions between the Nanumba and Konkomba threatened a repeat of the devastating 1994 tribal war (www.dagbon.net, accessed 29 September 2012). In Wa in the Upper West Region a long-standing dispute over succession to the paramountcy had finally resulted in the selection of a member of the Pelpuo family to be Wa Naa. However this was not readily accepted by other contestants, with particular resentment that the chief's brother was the sitting MP, therefore further consolidating the power of that family over its rivals (see www.dagbon.net, accessed 3 January 2012). All of these disputes had the potential to influence both parliamentary and presidential election results in their particular areas, with the significance being enhanced by the candidature of a fellow Northerner as President.
- 5.
Economic matters. Appreciation of development projects is to some extent in the eyes of the beholder in Ghana. Whenever opposition supporters are consulted, even the most visible projects are denied to have taken place, while government supporters hail massive developments that are not readily apparent. In reality, the four years of NDC rule had seen a concerted attempt to improve the road network and new school buildings and electricity supplies were evident in all regions of the country. Public sector workers had seen significant increases in their salaries. However, for many people costs were rising faster than incomes, unemployment and under-employment remained as significant problems and there were few discernible benefits from oil production. This could prove very significant, particularly in the Greater Accra Region where the election could be won and lost.
- 6.
The Rawlings factor. Jerry Rawlings founded the NDC as his party of transformation from military to civilian rule for the elections of 1992, having led the PNDC from the overthrow of the Third Republic under President Limann in 1981. Having served as President from 1992 until 2000 he stood down and was replaced as presidential candidate by his former Vice President Professor Mills. Relations between them were strained from the outset but became noticeably so after Mills’ election to the presidency in 2004. Although Mills originally promised to consult Rawlings on a daily basis, the NDC was divided between those who saw Rawlings as their role model and others who feared he was an electoral liability in some parts of the country. Rawlings became increasingly critical of the alleged inactivity and corruption of the regime, culminating in the candidature of his wife, Nana Konadu Rawlings in the presidential primary of the NDC. In the event she secured a humiliating 3.1% of the votes of party delegates, leading to her estrangement from the party and her establishment of the National Democratic Party (NDP) as a rival. She submitted nomination papers for the presidential elections but these were rejected by the Electoral Commission as incomplete (http://ghanareview.com, accessed 19 October 2012). Nevertheless the NDP was registered for the parliamentary elections with candidates in over half the constituencies throughout the country. Rawlings himself remained in the public limelight making speeches urging peaceful elections but not explicitly endorsing either the NDC or NDP. Although the NDP was given little chance of winning, the fear for the NDC was that votes for them could be split to the benefit of the NPP.
The mood of the election
Although there were some incidents of violence in particular ‘hotspots’ of Ghana in 2012 and during the election period that could at least in part be attributed to local political rivalries, such as the shooting near Bawku referred to above, these were relatively few compared to previous elections (see Kelly 2004, 2008). Both main parties realised this would be a close struggle and smaller parties expressed some optimism of their chances of making an impact. Declarations were made on all sides to maintain the peace and to eschew violence. The mood was significantly lightened in the televised presidential debates by the performance of the PNC candidate Hassan Ayariga whose perceived lack of knowledge and gravitas led to a member of the audience in the first debate suggesting he should use his option to ‘ask the audience’ or ‘phone a friend’ (http://ghanareview, accessed 7 November 2012). In a subsequent debate he joked and coughed his way through it much to the apparent delight of those present and the television audience.
During the debates the candidates of the NDC, NPP and CPP were all in their own ways impressive. Abu Sakara showed he was on top of his brief, Akuffo Addo answered questions with confidence which to some bordered on arrogance, while John Mahama appeared knowledgeable, calm and perhaps presidential. However, to many voters in the rural areas such discussions were of marginal relevance, with local concerns and personalities being of much greater significance.
All however remained calm until Saturday 8 December, when contrary to regulations the NPP staged a press conference to claim victory. This was followed by a ban on any party holding such briefings until the evening of Sunday 9 December, when the Chair of the Electoral Commission announced the election on the first ballot of President John Mahama, followed by the declaration of the NPP that there had been serious electoral fraud with the connivance of senior officials of the Electoral Commission to ensure a Mahama victory (see for example Daily Guide, 11 December 2012).
The declared results
The presidential election
| John Mahama | NDC | 5,574,761 | 50.70% |
| Nana Akufo-Addo | NPP | 5,248,898 | 47.74% |
| Kwesi Nduom | PPP | 64,223 | 0.59% |
| Henry Lartey | GCPP | 38,223 | 0.35% |
| Hassan Ayariga | PNC | 24,617 | 0.22% |
| Abu Sakara | CPP | 20,323 | 0.18% |
| Osei Yeboah | IND | 15,201 | 0.14% |
| Kwesi Addai | UFP | 8877 | 0.08% |
| Source: Adapted from http:ghanaelections.peacefmonline.com |
As the requirement for winning presidential elections in Ghana's Fourth Republic is obtaining 50% plus one of total valid votes cast, the Chairman of the Electoral Commission, Dr Afari Djan, formally declared John Mahama to be the President-Elect on the evening of Sunday 9 December after consultation with the parties and various civic groups. The NPP leadership immediately declared their intention to take the matter to the Supreme Court in line with their constitutional rights.
The parliamentary election
Despite a number of individual complaints about electoral malpractices in a number of constituencies (including a personal one to one of the authors of this article from the defeated NPP candidate Kofi Adda in Navrongo Central in the Upper East Region), much less attention was paid by either the political parties or the press to these results. These provided a clear victory for the NDC with the NPP only gaining a majority of seats in Ashanti and the Eastern Region, the home of Akufo Addo its presidential candidate. The PNC retained just one seat – Builsa South in the Upper East, and the other parties gained no seats (the CPP lost Jomoro in the Western Region and the PNC Sissala West in the Upper West Region). However, the CPP did win an early by-election victory in Kumbungu in the Dagomba area when the sitting NDP MP Alhaji Mohammed Mumuni was appointed to be the Secretary General of the African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) group of states, and so the party regained a presence in Parliament. The three Independents elected were all former NDC members disgruntled at the outcome of the party's primary elections held earlier in the year.
The NPP's argument
For the 2012 election all counts took place at the individual polling stations. Candidates or their representatives were given copies of the results and were asked to sign their agreement to them. Once this was done the results were then passed on pink sheets to the constituency for collation before being sent to the Electoral Commission in Accra for the formal announcement of the presidential poll to be made. The NPP alleged that the figures for the presidential election were distorted at the constituency level before being sent on to Accra. Ten constituencies were initially named with distortions totalling 51,325 votes (Daily Dispatch, 12 December 2012). The NPP submitted its electoral petition to the Supreme Court on Tuesday 16 April 2013, and as the case progressed three key elements were spelt out in it: over-voting, pink sheets with the same identification numbers, and voting without biometric verification. More than 11,000 polling stations were cited and the demand was that three million votes should be declared invalid. The NPP argued that if the court were to find in favour of its petition, its candidate – Akufo Addo – would be declared the victor.
At the time of writing no court decision on these claims had been reached, although the NDC had counter-alleged over-voting in NPP areas such as Asokwa in the Ashanti Region. Moreover all the international observers and civil society groups who had monitored the elections had declared themselves satisfied that the elections had been freely and fairly conducted (see for example Daily Graphic, 10 December 2012).
The significance of the results
The state of Ghanaian democracy. The 2012 elections certainly revealed some flaws in the reputation of Ghana's democratic system. The authors of this article were informed of a number of instances of payment for votes in various rural areas. Even before the elections had taken place there was a view among NPP supporters that the NDC and Electoral Commission were manipulating the system through the introduction of the biometric system and the creation of an additional 50 constituencies in the run-up to the elections. Unquestionably the difficulties some voters had in having their identities accepted by the electronic machines, allegations made by some candidates that their particular supporters were being discriminated against, and the refusal of several of the opposition parties to accept the legitimacy of the declared results do indicate that there are flaws in the system and its operation. This is evidenced by the number of rejected ballots largely resulting from the use of the biometric system, reaching over 250,000 or 2.24% of those cast (Daily Graphic, 11 December 2012), and this is a major source of concern to all.
Nonetheless, the peaceful conduct of the campaign and the comments by all the groups of international observers indicate that Ghana has progressed a long way towards the establishment of free and fair elections. Furthermore, the very fact that the NPP was able to challenge the fairness of the results by gathering written evidence from polling stations is indicative that the basic system is intact, enabling careful scrutiny to be undertaken. The financial resources at the disposal of the governing party inevitably provide an advantage, but the fact that governments could be overturned in 2000 and 2008 and that the presidential election at least in 2012 proved to be so close do indicate that Ghana remains a beacon of democracy in Africa.
The continued development of a two-party system. The NDC and NPP between them won 271 of the 275 parliamentary seats and their presidential candidates similarly won in every constituency. The resources at the disposal of the two parties dwarfed anything that could be mustered by the alternative parties and candidates. In mainly rural constituencies where local factors played a significant role, it was possible for the party machine to be beaten, although in most cases this was by the other party machine. The derisory votes obtained by the CPP, PNC and PPP presidential candidates (each receiving less than 1%) demonstrates that in the eyes of voters this was certainly a two-party race.
The end of the Nkrumah, Limann and Rawlings traditions? Abu Sakara of the CPP obtained 0.18% of the presidential votes despite appearing as a serious presidential contender in the televised debates. This placed him in fifth place behind Kwesi Nduom (PPP), Henry Lartey (GCPP) and Hassan Ayariga (PNC). While Nduom conducted a national poster campaign, Ayariga had essentially been regarded as a joke candidate after his performances in the presidential debates, and Lartey had been essentially invisible. In the only seat formerly held by the CPP (Jomoro in Nkrumah's home area in the Western Region), Nkrumah's daughter Samia Yaba Nkrumah was clearly defeated by the NDC's Francis Anaman by over 3500 votes. The PNC also claims to be part of the Nkrumah tradition but its success has in the past been mainly in the Upper Regions where Hilla Limann, President between 1979 and 1981 hailed from (Gwollu in the Sissala area of the Upper West). However the party lost its Sissala West seat and failed to regain Sissala East (lost in 2008), with its candidates actually coming third in both.
Less definite but nonetheless sign-posted is the possible end of the Rawlings tradition. His failure to explicitly support the NDC in the election followed by that party's success, and the lack of impact of his wife's NDP in the parliamentary elections may prove to be very significant. The party came last in over half the seats it contested and only managed one second place – Agotime Ziope in the Volta Region, with just 10.53% of the votes cast (http:ghanaelections.peacefmonline.com, accessed 13 January 2013). Sections of the NDC still hold Rawlings in great esteem and many people in the Volta and Upper/Northern Regions recognise the contributions to development his regime made. However, the NDC has shown that it can prosper without his support and it may prove very difficult for him to rebuild his influence within the party.
The continued importance of ‘traditional’ disputes and rivalries: The solid support given by the Volta Region to the NDC presidential candidate (85.4%) and by Ashanti to the NPP candidate (70.86%) indicates the maintenance of the Ewe/Ashanti rivalry which has characterised Ghanaian politics. In the Dagomba area the NPP was victorious in the two solidly Dagomba constituencies in which support for the Abudu family has been particularly strong (Yendi and Tolon) while the NDC won in the rest of the Dagomba heartland. The message conveyed by numerous respondents to the authors of this article was that any choice between the party of the murderers of the Ya Naa and that of those who had failed to bring the murderers to justice could only result in support for the latter. The Konkomba/ Bimoba dispute in Nakpanduri contributed to the defeat of the NDC candidate in Bunkpurugu and Kusasi/Mamprusi rivalry still dominated the Bawku Central election. However, the NDC candidate in Wa Central confounded predictions that the chieftaincy dispute would cost him his seat, retaining it with a majority of almost 6000 and 49.31% of the poll. Rivalry between the ‘dominant’ and ‘minority’ tribes undoubtedly contributed to the success of NPP candidates in Bimbilla, Kpandai, Tatale/Sanguli and Zabzugu, although the personalities and family relationships of particular candidates were also important (for details of the results, see http:ghanaelections.peacefmonline.com).
‘Skirt and blouse’. This is the term used in Ghana in reference to voters supporting the presidential candidate of one party and the parliamentary candidate of another. Excluding the three Independent and one PNC MPs (whose four constituencies all supported the NDC presidential candidate) seven constituencies voted for Akufo Addo and an NDC parliamentarian while 15 voted for Mahama and an NPP parliamentarian.
| Constituency | Region | Presidential % | Parliamentary % |
| Agona West | Central | NPP 49.83 v 48.69 | NDC 52.29 v 44.86 |
| Ahafo North | Ashanti | NPP 50.66 v 48.44 | NDC 50.37 v 49.24 |
| Ahanta West | Western | NPP 53.88 v 42.86 | NDC 45.74 v 43.49 |
| Akan | Volta | NDC 73.27 v 23.60 | IND 30.81 v 28.31 |
| Akwatia | Eastern | NPP 51.61 v 47.72 | NDC 50.44 v 49.07 |
| Amenfi East | Western | NPP 49.55 v 49.25 | NDC 59.42 v 40.18 |
| Asuagyman | Eastern | NDC 54.19 v 45.16 | NPP 51.79 v 46.55 |
| Ayawaso West | Greater Accra | NDC 49.86 v 49.05 | NPP 50.36 v 47.63 |
| Builsa South | Upper East | NDC 59.13 v 19.40 (NPP) | PNC 46.96 v 36.19 |
| Bunkpurugu | Northern | NDC 64.01 v 48.87 | NPP 38.85 v 36.41 |
| Effutu | Central | NDC 49.26 v 48.87 | NPP 55.68 v 44.86 |
| Ejura Sekyedume | Ashanti | NDC 55.79 v 43.24 | NPP 49.78 v 49.10 |
| Hemang Lr Denkyira | Central | NPP 49.27 v 48.82 | NDC 50.06 v 49.94 |
| Jaman North | Brong Ahafo | NDC 57.46 v 40.81 | NPP 50.34 v 49.66 |
| Jirapa | Upper West | NDC 78.25 v 12.82 (NPP) | IND 48.39 v 41.90 |
| KEEA | Central | NDC 55.57 v 34.45 | NPP 38.17 v 26.80(IND) |
| Kpandai | Northern | NDC 58.43 v 37.93 | NPP 42.48 v 36.12 |
| Nkoranza North | Brong Ahafo | NDC 49.69 v 48.94 | NPP 50.00 v 46.49 |
| Offinso North | Ashanti | NDC 49.57 v 49.42 | NPP 50.36 v 48.56 |
| Talensi | Upper East | NDC 63.35 v 26.36 | NPP 41.46 v 33.22 |
| Tamale North | Northern | NDC 75.36 v 22.69 (NPP) | IND 38.67 v 36.35 |
| Tano South | Brong Ahafo | NPP 51.62 v 47.44 | NDC 51.49 v 47.79 |
| Tatale | Northern | NDC 49.02 v 43.33 | NPP 33.10 v 32.93 (IND) |
| Tema East | Greater Accra | NDC 50.73 v 48.43 | NPP 47.69 v 47.68 |
| Wenchi | Brong Ahafo | NDC 50.11 v 48.37 | NPP 50.90 v 45.49 |
| Source: Adapted from http:ghanaelections.peacefmonline.com |
These results are very significant for Ghanaian democracy in that electors in all regions of the country indicated an awareness to vote for the local candidate of their choice while selecting a president on the basis of party affiliation and perceived suitability. The party machines might be powerful but local issues and opinions can clearly resist them. The above table shows that in some constituencies there was a significant rejection of the particular candidate chosen by the party. In Kpandai, Nabdam and Talensi there was a particular rejection of long-standing NDC MPs who had ‘chopped for too long’ (a phrase repeated in numerous interviews to the authors, meaning they had enjoyed the financial rewards of high office for many years and it was time for someone else to do so), while support for the presidential candidate remained strong.
The future
The significance of the failure to gain consensus on the Electoral Commission's declared results should not be underestimated and the continued gulf between the ethnic heartlands of the two main parties remains disturbing and a threat to political stability. The outcome of the Supreme Court's deliberations which are being televised has the potential to ignite intense conflict. ‘President’ Mahama and many other political leaders have indicated a willingness to accept whatever verdict is reached, but the rewards of links to the government are immense for many in society and a contrary court decision can be dire for many individuals and groups. Even if the court rules in the NDC's favour the NPP's petition has stimulated intense rivalry and resentment, and a precedent has been set for reaction to future election results.
However, the peaceful nature of the campaign, the resort to the courts rather than the streets, and the moderating influence of civil society organisations are certainly positive signs. The electoral system has shown itself to be robust and the electorate has in many places displayed a willingness to dispense with traditional voting patterns and resist the powerful party machines. Given events in elections under the Fourth Republic, any perceived failure of the NDC President and government to deliver may well be punished by the ‘two-term model’ that has been present since 1992.