The outlook for Nigerian oil: 1985–2000: four scenarios

Okugu, Bright Erakpoweri

doi:10.1080/03056248608703696

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Review of African Political Economy

Volume 13, Issue 37

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The outlook for Nigerian oil: 1985–2000: four scenarios

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Author(s): Bright Erakpoweri Okugu

Publication date (Print): December 1986

Journal: Review of African Political Economy

Publisher: Review of African Political Economy

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Abstract

Based on some recent forecasts of world oil demand and price in the years up to 2000, this paper looks at the probable demand for OPEC oil, Nigeria's market shares, and its revenues from oil. This is done under four scenarios: continued weak markets, optimistic, OPEC successfully defends ‘its market share’ and total breakdown in current market arrangements. The results point to continued difficulties, especially up to 1990, and probably beyond. This increases the potential for greater social conflict, as tighter austerity measures are introduced. The glut once again highlights the futility of total dependence on oil. Oil which had masked bad economic policies in the past, can no longer be relied upon to play this dubious role. Increased emphasis on agricultural production, and some adjustments in the operation of the Nation's Public Finance are suggested, among other policies, to cope with the transition to a post oil‐boom Nigeria.

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Journal

Journal ID (publisher-id): crea20

Journal ID (archive): CREA

Title: Review of African Political Economy

Publisher: Review of African Political Economy

ISSN (Print): 0305-6244

ISSN (Electronic): 1740-1720

Publication date (Print): December 1986

Volume: 13

Issue: 37

Pages: 11-23

Article

Publisher ID: 8703696 Coden ID: Review of African Political Economy, Vol. 13, No. 37, December 1986, pp. 11-23

DOI: 10.1080/03056248608703696

SO-VID: 1f3ececc-fa92-4acb-bbc2-e9452c620fbc

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All content is freely available without charge to users or their institutions. Users are allowed to read, download, copy, distribute, print, search, or link to the full texts of the articles in this journal without asking prior permission of the publisher or the author. Articles published in the journal are distributed under a http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Figures: 0, Tables: 0, References: 29, Pages: 13

Bibliographic note

Abba A.. 1985. . The Nigerian Economic Crisis: Causes and Cures . , Zaria : : ASUU. .
Akinbobola A. . 1979. . Should Nigeria Be in OPEC? . , (NIIA Monograph series). Lagos :
Bangura Y. . 1984. . “‘Overcoming some Basic Misconceptions of the Nigerian Economic Crisis’. ”. In Debate on the Nigerian Economic Crisis . , Nigerian Political Science Association. .
Clough P and Williams G.. 1983. . Decoding Berg: The World Bank in Rural Northern Nigeria . , Q.E.H Oxford. .
Eckbo P.L. . 1976. . The Future of World Oil . , Cambridge : : Mass, Ballinger. .
Ezzati A. . 1976. . ‘Future OPEC price and production strategies as affected by its capacity to absorb oil revenues’. . European Economic Review . , Vol. 8:
Friedman M. . 1974. . Newsweek . , March;
Griffin J.M and Teece D.J. . 1982. . OPEC Behavior and World Oil Prices . , George Allen and Unwin. .
Hotelling H. . 1931. . The Economics of Exhaustible Resources’. . Journal of Political Economy . , April;
Johany A.D. . 1980. . The Myth of the OPEC Cartel . , New York : : John Wiley and Sons. .
Kouris G.. 1983. . ‘Energy demand elasticities in Industrialised Countries: A survey’. . The Energy Journal . , Vol. 4((3))
Krugman P and Taylor L.. 1978. . ‘Contractionary effects of devaluation’. . Journal of International Economics . , August;
Mead W.J.. 1979. . ‘The performance of government energy regulations’. . American Economic Review . , May;
Nwankwo G.O.. 1983. . Nigeria and OPEC: To Be or Not to Be . , African University Press. .
Odell P.R. . 1983. . ‘An alternative view of the outlook for the International oil market’. . Petroleum Economist . , October;
Odell P.R and Rosing D.E.. 1985. . ‘East‐West differ on estimates’. . The Petroleum Economist . , September;
B.E. Okogu ( 1985 ): ‘Nigeria and OPEC: The Next Few Years’ , text of address given to the Oxford University Nigeria society at St Antony's College Oxford , 22nd May 1985.
Okogu B.E. . “‘OPEC and Nigeria's Foreign Policy Objectives’. ”. In OPEC and Nigeria's International Economic Relations . Edited by: Osagie E..
Okogu B.E.. 1986. . ‘Counter‐trade, and The World Oil Market’. . OPECReview . , Vol. x((2)) Summer;
B.E. Okogu ( 1985 ): ‘Nigeria's oil counter‐trade: Rationale, Issues and Policies’ , Memorandum submitted to the Presidential committee on Countertrade, Lagos , Nigeria , ( October , 1985).
Onoh. . 1983. . The Nigerian Oil Economy . , Croom Helm. .
Pindyck R.S. . 1978. . ‘OPEC's Threat to the West’. . Foreign Policy . , Spring;
Porter R.C and Ranney S.I.. 1982. . ‘An ecclectic model of recent LDC macroeconomic policy analysis’. . World Development . , September;
Renshaw E. . 1985. . ‘Saudi oil Policy: A supply side perspective’. . OPEC Bulletin . , July/August;
Usman Y.B.. 1982. . ‘Behind the oil smokescreen’. . The Nigerian Standard . , 5–7 May;
Y.B. Usman ( 1984 ): ‘Middlemen, Consultants, Contractors and the Solution to the Current Economic Crisis’ , in Debate on the Nigerian Economic Crisis ’, Published by the Nigerian Political Science Association .
1977. . Global Prospects 1985–2000 . , McGraw Hill. .
Yamani A.Z.. 1979. . “The Changing Pattern Of World Oil Supplies’. ”. In Papers on the Economics of Oil . , Edited by: Abdel‐Fadil M.. Oxford University Press. .
‘Nigerian Economy and Society Since the Berlin conference: 1884–1985’ held at the Ahmadu Bellow University , Zaria, Nigeria from November 11–15th , 1985 .

Comments

Comment on this article

[1] Abba A.. 1985. . The Nigerian Economic Crisis: Causes and Cures . , Zaria : : ASUU. .

[2] Akinbobola A. . 1979. . Should Nigeria Be in OPEC? . , (NIIA Monograph series). Lagos :

[3] Bangura Y. . 1984. . “‘Overcoming some Basic Misconceptions of the Nigerian Economic Crisis’. ”. In Debate on the Nigerian Economic Crisis . , Nigerian Political Science Association. .

[4] Clough P and Williams G.. 1983. . Decoding Berg: The World Bank in Rural Northern Nigeria . , Q.E.H Oxford. .

[5] Eckbo P.L. . 1976. . The Future of World Oil . , Cambridge : : Mass, Ballinger. .

[6] Ezzati A. . 1976. . ‘Future OPEC price and production strategies as affected by its capacity to absorb oil revenues’. . European Economic Review . , Vol. 8:

[7] Friedman M. . 1974. . Newsweek . , March;

[8] Griffin J.M and Teece D.J. . 1982. . OPEC Behavior and World Oil Prices . , George Allen and Unwin. .

[9] Hotelling H. . 1931. . The Economics of Exhaustible Resources’. . Journal of Political Economy . , April;

[10] Johany A.D. . 1980. . The Myth of the OPEC Cartel . , New York : : John Wiley and Sons. .

[11] Kouris G.. 1983. . ‘Energy demand elasticities in Industrialised Countries: A survey’. . The Energy Journal . , Vol. 4((3))

[12] Krugman P and Taylor L.. 1978. . ‘Contractionary effects of devaluation’. . Journal of International Economics . , August;

[13] Mead W.J.. 1979. . ‘The performance of government energy regulations’. . American Economic Review . , May;

[14] Nwankwo G.O.. 1983. . Nigeria and OPEC: To Be or Not to Be . , African University Press. .

[15] Odell P.R. . 1983. . ‘An alternative view of the outlook for the International oil market’. . Petroleum Economist . , October;

[16] Odell P.R and Rosing D.E.. 1985. . ‘East‐West differ on estimates’. . The Petroleum Economist . , September;

[17] B.E. Okogu ( 1985 ): ‘Nigeria and OPEC: The Next Few Years’ , text of address given to the Oxford University Nigeria society at St Antony's College Oxford , 22nd May 1985.

[18] Okogu B.E. . “‘OPEC and Nigeria's Foreign Policy Objectives’. ”. In OPEC and Nigeria's International Economic Relations . Edited by: Osagie E..

[19] Okogu B.E.. 1986. . ‘Counter‐trade, and The World Oil Market’. . OPECReview . , Vol. x((2)) Summer;

[20] B.E. Okogu ( 1985 ): ‘Nigeria's oil counter‐trade: Rationale, Issues and Policies’ , Memorandum submitted to the Presidential committee on Countertrade, Lagos , Nigeria , ( October , 1985).

[21] Onoh. . 1983. . The Nigerian Oil Economy . , Croom Helm. .

[22] Pindyck R.S. . 1978. . ‘OPEC's Threat to the West’. . Foreign Policy . , Spring;

[23] Porter R.C and Ranney S.I.. 1982. . ‘An ecclectic model of recent LDC macroeconomic policy analysis’. . World Development . , September;

[24] Renshaw E. . 1985. . ‘Saudi oil Policy: A supply side perspective’. . OPEC Bulletin . , July/August;

[25] Usman Y.B.. 1982. . ‘Behind the oil smokescreen’. . The Nigerian Standard . , 5–7 May;

[26] Y.B. Usman ( 1984 ): ‘Middlemen, Consultants, Contractors and the Solution to the Current Economic Crisis’ , in Debate on the Nigerian Economic Crisis ’, Published by the Nigerian Political Science Association .

[27] 1977. . Global Prospects 1985–2000 . , McGraw Hill. .

[28] Yamani A.Z.. 1979. . “The Changing Pattern Of World Oil Supplies’. ”. In Papers on the Economics of Oil . , Edited by: Abdel‐Fadil M.. Oxford University Press. .

[29] ‘Nigerian Economy and Society Since the Berlin conference: 1884–1985’ held at the Ahmadu Bellow University , Zaria, Nigeria from November 11–15th , 1985 .

Review of African Political Economy

The outlook for Nigerian oil: 1985–2000: four scenarios

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