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Political Change in North Africa and the Arab Middle East: Constitutional Reforms and Electoral Processes
Abstract
The aim of this study is to examine, from a comparative focus, the processes of political change, which have come about as a result of the revolutions and upheavals in North Africa and the Arab Middle East countries since December 2010. Previous experiences have shown that democracies tend to emerge in waves. Nevertheless, our hypothesis is that we cannot generalize by referring to a new wave of democratization in this region, but rather, we need to focus on processes of change of a different political nature (the establishment of democracy, political liberalization, and in some cases, the immobility of authoritarian regimes). In this research, we describe the constitutional and legal reforms, and the elections held to date. Finally, we evaluate the scope of these processes and assess their impact on the nature of political regimes in the Arab world.
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Notes
Huntington identified three waves of democratization. He included, within the third wave, processes of change that occurred in Central and Eastern European countries after the fall of the Berlin wall in 1989. Thus, several authors have referred to current changes in the Arab world as the “fourth wave of democratization” (Diamond, 2011; Dobson, 2011; Gershman, 2011; Grand, 2011; Priego, 2011). However, we believe it is more appropriate to point out that these post-communist transitions opened up a fourth wave that is distinct from the one which shook southern Europe and Latin America in the 1970s and 1980s (Doorenspleet, 2005; Landman, 2008; McFaul, 2002).
See López-García et al. (1991), Korany et al. (1998), Camau (2002), Schmitter (2002), Brumberg (2002, 2005), Ottaway et al. (2002), Albrecht and Schlumberger (2004) and Ottaway and Choucair-Vizoso (2008).
See Bellin (2004), Posusney (2004, 2005), Ghalioun (2004), Tessler (2002a, 2002b), Stepan and Robertson (2003, 2004), Lakoff (2004), Tessler and Gao (2005: 83), Aaouzi (2006), Schlumberger (2007), King (2009), Storm (2009), Diamond (2010) and Parejo (2010).
Within this third, a 50 percent quota of seats is still reserved for farmworkers and laborers, as occurred under the previous regime. In addition, the new rules make it compulsory to include women in each voting list, which does not guarantee that they be elected because they are not necessarily at the head of the list. This has meant a step backward in comparison to Mubarak's previous legislation which reserved 13 percent of seats for women. Similarly, three seats (out of a total of 508) have been reserved for Copts and ten have been appointed in the Lower House.
The opposition parties are clamoring for a proportional electoral system and candidatures of lists, which will strengthen political groups in a system in which tribal and clan relations are the norm. In addition, they are demanding the direct election of the Senate.
In the elections of February 2012, the Islamist opposition boycotted the elections.
In contrast, the two government's parties won the overwhelming majority of seats in Algeria: National Liberation Front (220 seats, 47.6% total seats) and the National Democratic Rally (69 seats, 14.7% total seats).
Yebali resigned, on February, 19 2013, since the other parties rejected his intention to form a technocratic government after the crisis that followed the murder of a prominent member of the opposition.
The Istiqlal Party ministers resigned on July 9, 2013 after months of disputes between Benkirane and the leader of the Istiqlal Party, Hamid Chabat.
The military coup in Egypt, on July 3, 2013, and the Islamist refusal to participate in the new transition process raise doubt about the Egyptian democratization.