- Record: found
- Abstract: found
- Article: found
The Arab Spring: A Quantitative Analysis
Abstract
The quantitative analysis of the Arab Spring events is a rather difficult task. Respective difficulties are related to the variety of factors affecting social instability, and to individual peculiarities of historical, cultural, socio-economic, and political processes in the region. As a result of the research, we found out that the processes of social and political destabilization in the countries of Arab Spring were caused by a complex set of factors. The most significant factors that tended to reduce the scale of sociopolitical destabilization during the Arab Spring have turned out to be the following: the ability of the government to reduce social tensions and the presence of “immunity” to internal conflicts. However, such indicators as structural and demographical characteristics and external influences turned out to be less significant in the context of the Arab Spring. It should be mentioned that the significance of the external influences indicator notably increases when the model is used to account for the death toll resultant from anti-government protests. We also discuss the possibility of applying the developed model of sociopolitical destabilization to forecast sociopolitical upheavals in future.
Content
Author and article information
Notes
Tukey, J., “Exploratory Data Analysis,” Quarterly of Applied Mathematics 30 (1972), 51–65; Tukey, J., “Exploratory Data Analysis,” American Statistics 34 (1980), 23–25.
Kotz, S., Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences , Vol. 3 (Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2005), 2151–2154.
Goldstone, J., “Towards a Fourth Generation of Revolutionary Theory,” Annual Review of Political Science 4 (2001), 139–187.
Goldstone, J. and Epstein, D., “A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability,” American Journal of Political Science 54:1 (2010), 190–208.
Tsirel', S. V., “Usloviya vozniknoveniya revolyutsionnyh situatsiy v arabskih stranah,” in A. V. Korotayev, Y. V. Zin'kina and A. S. Khodunov, Red., Sistemnyy monitoring global'nyh i regional'nyh riskov: Arabskaya vesna 2011 (Moskva: Izdatel'stvo LKI/URSS, 2012), 162–171.
Tsirel', “Usloviya vozniknoveniya revolyutsionnyh situatsiy v arabskih stranah,” 162.
Korotayev, A. V., Issaev, L. M., Malkov, S. Yu. and Shishkina, A. R., “Toward the Development of Methods of Estimation of the Current State and Forecast of Social Instability,” Central European Journal of International and Security Studies 7:4 (2013), 247–283; Malkov, S. Yu., Korotayev, A. V., Isaev, L. M. and Kouzminova, E. V., “O Metodike Otsenki Tekushchego Sosotoyaniya i Prognoza Sotsial'noi Nestabil'nosti: Opyt Kolichestvennogo Analiza Sobytii Arabskoi Vesny,” Polis: Politicheskie Issledovaniya 4 (2013), 103–127.
See, e.g., Goldstone, J., Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1991); Goldstone and Epstein, “A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability,” 190; Korotayev, A. V., Zinkina, J., Kobzeva, S., Bogevolnov, J., Khaltourina, D., Malkov, A. and Malkov, S., “A Trap at the Escape from the Trap? Demographic-Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modern Africa and West Asia,” Cliodynamics: The Journal of Theoretical and Mathematical History 2:2 (2011), 276–303; Korotayev, A. and Zinkina, J., “Egyptian Revolution: A Demographic Structural Analysis,” Entelequia. Revista Interdisciplinar 13 (2011), 139–169; Zin'kina Yu. V., “Tendentsii politico-demograficheskoy dinamiki i perspektivy sohraneniya politicheskoy nestabil'nosti v stranah Blizhnego i Srednego Vostoka i Vostochnoy Afriki s tochki zreniya strukturno-demograficheskoy teorii,” in A. V. Korotayev, D. A. Khalturina and Yu. V. Zin'kina, Red., Sistemnyy monitoring global'nyh I regional'nyh riskov (Moskva: LKI/URSS, 2011), 141–283; Goodwin, J., No Other Way Out: States and Revolutionary Movements, 1945–1991 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001); Grinin, L. E., “Mal'tuziansko-marksova “lovushka” i russkie revolyutsii,” in L. E. Grinin, A. V. Korotayev and S. Yu. Malkov, Red., O prichinah russkoy revolyutsii (Moskva: LKI/URSS, 2010), 198–224.
Truevtsev, K. M., God 2011—novaya demokraticheskaya volna? (Moskva: Izdatel'stvo VSHE, 2011).
Goldstone, Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World ; Goldstone J., “Population and Security: How Demographic Change Can Lead to Violent Conflict,” Journal of International Affairs 56:1 (2002), 3–22.
Isaev, L. M. and Shishkina, A. R., Egipetskaya smuta XXI veka (Moskva: Librokom, 2012).
Truevtsev, God 2011 .
Demchenko, A. V., “Zatyanuvshayasya “vesna” v Iordanii,” in A. V. Korotayev, L. M. Isaev and A. R. Shishkina, Red., Sistemnyy monitoring global'nyh I regional'nyh riskov: Arabskiy mir posle Arabskoy vesny (Moskva: Lenand, 2013), 85–106.
Isaev, L. M., “Plemennaya revolyutsiya po-yemenski,” Neprikosnovennyy zapas 4 (2012), 178–187; Isaev, L. M. and Truevtsev, K. M., “Yemen: konets epohi Saleha,” in A. V. Korotayev, L. M. Isaev and A. R. Shishkina, Red., Sistemnyy monitoring global'nyh I regional'nyh riskov: Arabskiy mir posle Arabskoy vesny (Moskva: Lenand, 2013), 138–167.
Suhov, N. V., “Politicheskaya vesna v Morokko,” in A. V. Korotayev, L. M. Isaev and A. R. Shishkina, Red., Sistemnyy monitoring global'nyh i regional'nyh riskov: Arabskiy mir posle Arabskoy vesny (Moskva: Lenand, 2013), 237–266; Dolgov, B. V., “Alzhirskiy opyt Aabskoy vesny,” in A. V. Korotayev, L. M. Isaev and A. R. Shishkina, Red., Sistemnyy monitoring global'nyh I regional'nyh riskov: Arabskiy mir posle Arabskoy vesny (Moskva: Lenand, 2013), 21–39.
Truevtsev, God 2011 .
Shishkina, A. R., “Transformatsiya sotsial'no-politicheskogo prostranstva v kontekste sobytiy 2011–2012 v Sirii,” in Sotsiologiya i obshchestvo: global'nye vyzovy i regional'noe razvitie. Materialy IV Ocherednogo Vserossiyskogo kongressa sotsiologov (Moskva: ROS, 2012), 1581–1589; Shishkina, A. R., “Siria: sekrety stoykosti regima,” in A. V. Korotayev, L. M. Isaev and A. R. Shishkina, Red., Sistemnyy monitoring global'nyh i regional'nyh riskov: Arabskiy mir posle Arabskoy vesny (Moskva: Lenand, 2013), 323–353.
See: Artzrouni, M. and Komlos, J., “Population Growth through History and the Escape from the Malthusian Trap: A Homeostatic Simulation Model,” Genus 41:3–4 (1985), 21–39; Kögel, T. and Prskawetz, A., “Agricultural Productivity Growth and Escape from the Malthusian Trap,” Journal of Economic Growth 6 (2001), 337–357; Komlos, J. and Artzrouni, M., “Mathematical Investigations of the Escape from the Malthusian Trap,” Mathematical Population Studies 2 (1990), 269–287; Steinmann, G., Prskawetz, A. and Feichtinger, G., “A Model on the Escape from the Malthusian Trap,” Journal of Population Economics 11(1998), 535–550; Korotayev, Zinkina, Kobzeva, Bogevolnov, Khaltourina, Malkov and Malkov, “A Trap at the Escape from the Trap?” 276.
Moller, H., “Youth as a Force in the Modern World,” Comparative Studies in Society and History 10 (1968), 238–260; Goldstone, “Towards a Fourth Generation of Revolutionary Theory,” 137; Goldstone, “Towards a Fourth Generation of Revolutionary Theory,” 139; Goldstone, “Population and Security,” 3; Korotayev, A. V., Khodunov, A. S., Burova, A. N., Malkov, S. Yu., Khalturina, D. A. and Zin'kina Yu. V., “Sotsial'no-demograficheskiy analiz Arabskoy vesny,” in A. V. Korotayev, Yu.V. Zin'kina and A. S. Khodunov, Red., Sistemnyy monitoring global'nyh i regional'nyh riskov: Arabskaya vesna 2011 (Moskva: LKI/URSS, 2012), 128–161; Korotayev, A. V., Khalturina, D. A., Kobzeva, S. V. and Zin'kina Yu. V., “Lovushka na vyhode iz lovushki? O nekotoryh osobennostyah politico-demograficheskoy dimaniki moderniziruyushchihsya sistem,” in A. A. Akaev, A. V. Korotayev, G. G. Malinetskiy and S. Yu. Malkov, Red., Proekty i riski budushchego. Kontseptsii, modeli, instrumenty, prognozy (Moskva: Krasand/URSS, 2011), 45–88; Korotayev, A. V., Bozhevol'nov Yu. V., Grinin, L. E., Zin'kina Yu. V. and Malkov, S. Yu., “Lovushka na vyhode iz lovushki. Logicheskie i matematicheskie modeli,” in A. A. Akaev, A. V. Korotayev, G. G. Malinetskiy and S. Yu. Malkov, Red., Proekty i riski budushchego. Kontseptsii, modeli, instrumenty, prognozy (Moskva: Krasand/URSS, 2011), 138–164; Korotayev, Zinkina, Kobzeva, Bogevolnov, Khaltourina, Malkov and Malkov, “A Trap at the Escape from the Trap?” 276; Korotayev and Zinkina, “Egyptian Revolution,” 139.
Goldstone, “Population and Security,” 3; Korotayev, Zinkina, Kobzeva, Bogevolnov, Khaltourina, Malkov and Malkov, “A Trap at the Escape from the Trap?” 276; Korotayev and Zinkina, “Egyptian Revolution,” 139; Korotayev, Bozhevol'nov, Grinin, Zin'kina and Malkov, “Lovushka na vyhode iz lovushki. Logicheskie i matematicheskie modeli,” 138; Goldstone, Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World ; Moller, “Youth as a Force in the Modern World,” 238.
Polyakov, K. I. and Sigalyov, M. V., “Arabskaya vesna i Respublika Sudan,” in A. V. Korotayev, L. M. Isaev and A. R. Shishkina, Red., Sistemnyy monitoring global'nyh i regional'nyh riskov: Arabskiy mir posle Arabskoy vesny (Moskva: Lenand, 2013), 354–377.
Korotayev, A. V. and Isaev, L. M., “Livan: ray na vulkane,” in A. V. Korotayev, L. M. Isaev and A. R. Shishkina, Red., Sistemnyy monitoring global'nyh I regional'nyh riskov: Arabskiy mir posle Arabskoy vesny (Moskva: Lenand, 2013), 187–213.
Demchenko, “Zatyanuvshayasya “vesna” v Iordanii,” 85.
Isaev, L. M., “Faktory destabilizatsiy arabskih respublikanskih rezhimov v hode Arabskoy vesny,” in Sotsiologiya i obshchestvo: global'nye vyzovy i regional'noe razvitie. Materialy IV Ocherednogo Vserossiyskogo kongressa sotsiologov (Moskva: ROS, 2012), 1467–1477.
Isaev, “Faktory destabilizatsiy arabskih respublikanskih rezhimov v hode Arabskoy vesny,” 1467.
Davies, J., “Toward a Theory of Revolution,” in B. McLaughlin, ed., Studies in Social Movements: A Social Psychological Perspective (New York: Free Press, 1969), 85–108.
Korotayev, Zinkina, Kobzeva, Bogevolnov, Khaltourina, Malkov and Malkov, “A Trap at the Escape from the Trap?” 276; Korotayev and Zinkina, “Egyptian Revolution,” 139; Korotayev, A. V. and Zin'kina Yu. V., “Demograficheskie korni Egipetskoy revolyutsii,” Demoskop , March 21-April 3, 2011, Number 459–460, http://www.demoscope.ru/weekly/2011/0459/tema01.php; Korotayev, A. V. and Zin'kina Yu. V., “Egipetskaya revolyutsiya 2011 g,” Aziya i Afrika segodnya 6:647 (2011), 10–16; Korotayev, A. V. and Zin'kina Yu. V., “Egipetskaya revolyutsiya 2011 g. Strukturno-demograficheskiy analiz,” Aziya i Afrika segodnya 7:648 (2011), 15–21; Korotayev, A. V., Zin'kina Yu. V. and Khodunov, A. S., (eds.), Arabskaya vesna 2011 goda. Sistemnyy monitoring global'nyh i regional'nyh riskov (Moskva: LKI/URSS, 2012); Isaev and Shishkina, Egipetskaya smuta XXI veka ; Isaev, L. M. and Shishkina, A. R., Siriya i Yemen: neokonchennye revolyutsii (Moskva: Librokom, 2012).
Davies, “Toward a Theory of Revolution,” 85.
Korotayev, Zinkina, Kobzeva, Bogevolnov, Khaltourina, Malkov and Malkov, “A Trap at the Escape from the Trap?” 276; Korotayev and Zinkina, “Egyptian Revolution,” 139; Sadovnichiy, V. A., Akaev, A. A., Korotayev, A. V. and Malkov, S. Yu., Modelirovanie i prognozirovanie mirovoy dinamiki (Moskva: ISPI RAN, 2012).
Note that there are grounds to maintain that the high level of correlation in this case is entirely coincidental.
Tsirel', S. V., “Revolyutsii, volny revolyusiy i Arabskaya vesna,” in A. V. Korotayev, Yu. V. Zin'kina and A. S. Khodunov, Red., Sistemnyy monitoring global'nyh i regional'nyh riskov: Arabskaya vesna 2011 (Moskva: LKI/URSS, 2011), 128–161; Goldstone, J., Gurr, T., Harff, B., Levy, M., Marshall, M., Bates, R., Epstein, D., Kahl, C., Surko, P., Ulfelder, J., Unger, Jr. and Unger, A., State Failure Task Force Report: Phase III Findings (McLean, VA: Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), 2003); Truevtsev, God 2011 .
Korotayev and Isaev, “Livan: ray na vulkane,” 187.
See, e.g., Korotayev, Zinkina, Kobzeva, Bogevolnov, Khaltourina, Malkov and Malkov, “A Trap at the Escape from the Trap?” 276; Korotayev and Zinkina, “Egyptian Revolution,” 139; Korotayev, Zin'kina and Khodunov, (eds.), Arabskaya vesna 2011 goda .
See, e.g., Korotayev and Zinkina, “Egyptian Revolution,” 139; Korotayev, Zin'kina and Khodunov, (eds.), Arabskaya vesna 2011 goda ; Isaev and Shishkina, Egipetskaya smuta XXI veka ; Isaev and Shishkina, Siriya i Yemen .
Korotayev, Zin'kina and Khodunov, (eds.), Arabskaya vesna 2011 goda ; Isaev and Shishkina, Egipetskaya smuta XXI veka ; Isaev and Shishkina, Siriya i Yemen .