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      Uncertainty over the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action: Iran, the European Union and the United States

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            Abstract

            One of the most significant developments of the year 2018 was US President Trump's decision to pull out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or Iran Nuclear Deal, a multilateral agreement signed between Iran and China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, plus Germany (P5+1). While the US has withdrawn from the deal and the other signatories to the deal are trying to keep Iran in the deal, Iran sees little return in remaining part of the deal. Hence, there is uncertainty about its survival. To study the future of JCPOA, the paper analyzes the future course of action of Iran, the EU and the US vis-à-vis the deal. It looks at US efforts to scuttle the deal, the internal and external pressures on Iran to abide or abandon the deal, and the EU's attempts to appease the US while keeping Iran in the deal. Furthermore, it looks at the bilateral relations between stakeholders and predicts the consequences of the course of action taken by each stakeholder.

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            Author and article information

            Journal
            10.2307/j50009730
            polipers
            Policy Perspectives
            Pluto Journals
            1812-1829
            1812-7347
            1 January 2019
            : 16
            : 1 ( doiID: 10.13169/polipers.16.issue-1 )
            : 23-39
            Affiliations
            The author is a Researcher at the Institute of Policy Studies and teaches at the University of Management and Technology (UMT), Sialkot, Pakistan.
            Article
            polipers.16.1.0023
            10.13169/polipers.16.1.0023
            c2ba7b36-d019-4f15-89b2-1b0da718c853
            © 2019, Institute of Policy Studies

            All content is freely available without charge to users or their institutions. Users are allowed to read, download, copy, distribute, print, search, or link to the full texts of the articles in this journal without asking prior permission of the publisher or the author. Articles published in the journal are distributed under a http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

            History
            Custom metadata
            eng

            Education,Religious studies & Theology,Social & Behavioral Sciences,Law,Economics
            SWIFT,US Sanctions,European Union,Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps,JCPOA,UN Resolution 2231,Iran Nuclear Deal

            Footnotes

            1. William A. Galston, “Hillary Clinton on the Iran Nuclear Deal: ‘Distrust and Verify’,” Markaz, September 9, 2015, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/markaz/2015/09/09/hillary-clinton-on-the-iran-nuclear-deal-distrust-and-verify/.

            2. ICG, How Europe can Save the Iran Nuclear Deal, report N° 185 (Brussels: International Crisis Group, 2018), https://d2071andvip0wj.cloudfront.net/185-how-europe-can-save-the-iran-nuclear-deal.pdf.

            3. Cornelius Adebahr, “Trump, the EU, and Iran Policy: Multiple Pathways Ahead,” Carnegie Europe, January 31, 2017, https://carnegieeurope.eu/2017/01/31/trump-eu-and-iran-policy-multiple-pathways-ahead-pub-67836.

            4. Kenneth M. Pollack, “Containing Iran,” in The Iran Primer: Power, Politics, and U.S. Policy, ed. Robin Wright (Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace Press, 2010).

            5. Ben Rhodes, “On Nowruz, President Obama Speaks to the Iranian People,” White House, March 20, 2012, https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2012/03/20/nowruz-president-obama-speaks-iranian-people.

            6. Sanam Vakil, “Under Pressure: US-Iranian Relations in the Age of Trump,” in Post Vote Iran: Giving Engagement a Chance, eds. Paolo Magri and Annalisa Perteghella (Milan: Ledizioni LediPublishing, 2017), 81–87.

            7. Wendy Sherman, “How We Got the Iran Deal, and Why We'll Miss it,” Foreign Affairs 97, no. 5 (2018), https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2018-08-13/how-we-got-iran-deal.

            8. Rouzbeh Parsi, “EU-Iran Relations: Building Bridges in Stormy Waters,” in Post Vote Iran: Giving Engagement a Chance, eds. Paolo Magri and Annalisa Perteghella (Milan: Ledizioni LediPublishing, 2017), 112.

            9. Cornelius Adebahr, “Squaring the Triangle: The EU between Rouhani and Trump,” in Post Vote Iran: Giving Engagement a Chance, eds. Paolo Magri and Annalisa Perteghella (Milan: Ledizioni LediPublishing, 2017), 126.

            10. Parsi, “EU-Iran Relations: Building Bridges in Stormy Waters,” 113.

            11. Krishnadev Calamur, “Trump Goes from Threatening Iran to Threatening the World,” Atlantic, August 7, 2018, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/08/trump-iran-tweet/566948/.

            12. “US Withdraws from Iran Nuclear Deal” EY.com, May 14, 2018, https://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/US_withdraws_from_Iran_Nuclear_Deal/$FILE/2018G_02862-181Gbl_Indirect_US%20withdraws%20from%20Iran%20Nuclear%20Deal.pdf.

            13. Katrina Manson, “US Exempts Eight Countries from Iran Oil Sanctions,” Financial Times, November 5, 2018, https://www.ft.com/content/90adbl02-el01-lle8-8e70-5e22a430clad.

            14. Jarrett Blanc, “Unanswered Questions about US Policy towards Iran,” commentary (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2018), https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/ll/05/unanswered-questions-about-u.s.-policy-toward-iran-pub-77644.

            15. Ibid. Also see, Karim Sadjadpour, ‘“Three Birds with One Stone,” Diwan, November 9, 2018, https://carnegie-mec.org/diwan/77682.

            16. Blanc, “Unanswered Questions about US Policy Towards Iran;” and Sadjadpour, “Three Birds with One Stone.”

            17. Suzanne Nossel, “This is What Will Happen if Congress Blows Up the Iran Nuclear Deal,” Foreign Policy, July 30, 2015, https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/07/30/congress-iran-nuclear-deal-obama-veto-kerry-mccain/.

            18. Adebahr, “Trump, the EU, and Iran Policy: Multiple Pathways Ahead.”

            19. Sanam Vakil in “Judy Asks: Can the Iran Nuclear Deal be Saved?” Judy Dempsey's Strategic Europe, November 8, 2018, https://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/77672.

            20. Ilan Goldenberg and Eric Brewer, “The Next US President Should Join the Iran Nuclear Deal,” Foreign Policy, February 12, 2019, https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/02/12/the-next-u-s-president-should-rejoin-the-iran-nuclear-deal/.

            21. Ibid.

            22. Max Shafron and Jeffrey Rathke, “On a Mission, Macron and Merkel Come to Washington” (Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2018), https://www.csis.org/analysis/mission-macron-and-merkel-come-washington.

            23. Julian Borger, “Donald Trump likely to Scrap Iran Deal Amid ‘Insane’ Changes of Stance, Says Macron,” Guardian, April 26, 2018, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/25/macron-goes-against-trump-on-paris-climate-deal-and-iran-nuclear-accord.

            24. Parsi, “EU-Iran Relations: Building Bridges in Stormy Waters,” 114–116.

            25. ICG, “Saving the Iran Nuclear Deal without the U.S.,” (Washington, D.C.: International Crisis Group, 2018), https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/gulf-and-arabian-peninsula/iran/saving-iran-nuclear-deal-without-us.

            26. Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi, Thierry Coville and David Ramin Jalilvand, “Better Together: Brexit, The E3, and the Future of Europe's Approach towards Iran” (Berlin: Freidrich-Ebert-Stiftung, 2018), https://www.iris-france.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Brexit-the-E3-and-the-Future-of-Europe%E2%80%99s-Approach-towards-Iran-FS-IRIS-RUSI.pdf; and Barbara Slavin, “Europe Needs to Persuade Iran, not just Trump, to Save the Nuclear Deal,” New Atlanticist, April 23, 2018, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/europe-needs-to-persuade-iran-not-just-trump-to-save-the-nuclear-deal.

            27. Ted Regencia and Alia Chughtai, “Major Milestones of Iran's Nuclear Program,” Al Jazeera, November 5, 2018, https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/interactive/2018/05/major-milestones-iran-nuclear-programme-180508105047809.html.

            28. ICG, “Saving the Iran Nuclear Deal without the U.S.”

            29. Donald Trump and Emmanuel Macron, “Remarks by President Trump and President Macron of France in Joint Press Conference” (speeches, Washington, D.C., April 24, 2018), White House, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-president-macron-france-joint-press-conference/.

            30. Cornelius Adebahr, “Europe and Iran: The Economic and Commercial Dimensions of a Strained Relationship” (paper 18, Instituto Affari Internazionali, Rome, 2018), https://www.iai.it/sites/default/files/iaipl824.pdf.

            31. EEAS, “Iran Deal: EU Remains Committed to the Continued Implementation of the Nuclear Deal, Mogherini Says” (Brussels: European External Action Service, 2018), https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/44239/iran-deal-eu-remains-committed-continued-implementation-nuclear-deal-mogherini-says_en.

            32. Parsi, “EU-Iran Relations: Building Bridges in Stormy Waters,” 114.

            33. Erzsebet N. Rozsa, “The EU and the Iran Nuclear Deal: How to Proceed?” (brief 13, Middle East and North Africa Regional Architecture: Mapping Geopolitical Shifts, Regional Order and Domestic Transformations, Barcelona Center for International Affairs, Barcelona, 2018), 4.

            34. Werner Weidnefel, “The Intertwining of Security and Economics,” in Werner Weidenfeld, Caio K. Koch-Weser, C. Fred Bergsten, Walther Stutzle, John Hamre, From Alliance to Coalitions: The Future of Transatlantic Relations (Washington, D.C.: Bertelsmann Foundation Publishers, 2004), 11–15.

            35. Parsi, “EU-Iran Relations: Building Bridges in Stormy Waters,” 97–106.

            36. Ibid., 106–107.

            37. Britta Petersen, “Beyond JCPOA- Europe” (Washington, D.C.: Observer Research Foundation, 2018), https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/42650-jcpoa-europe/.

            38. Parsi, “EU-Iran Relations: Building Bridges in Stormy Waters,” 119.

            39. Ali Fathollah-Nejad, “Europe and the Future of Iran Policy: Dealing with a Dual Crisis” (brief, Brookings Doha Center, Doha, 2018), https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Europe-and-the-future-of-Iran-policy-Dealing-with-a-dual-crisis-English.pdf.

            40. Ibid.

            41. European Commission, “European Union, Trade in Goods with Iran,” factsheet, April 16, 2018, https://webgate.ec.europa.eu/isdb_results/factsheets/country/details_iran_en.pdf.

            42. “Iran Frustrated as EU Trade Channel Moves at Snail's Pace,” Press TV, March 5, 2019, https://www.presstv.com/DetailFr/2019/03/05/590230/Iran-EU-trade-channel-INSTEX-FATF-sanctions.

            43. Cornelius Adebahr, “Europe Cannot Save the Iran Deal But it Must Try,” New Atlanticist, September 4, 2018, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/europe-cannot-save-the-iran-deal-but-it-must-try.

            44. Naysan Rafati and Ali Vaez, “Europe Tests the Boundaries on Iran,” Foreign Affairs, February 4, 2019, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/iran/2019-02-04/europe-tests-boundaries-iran.

            45. Anwar Al Taqi and Esam Aziz, “The EU and Iran Sanctions: The Game behind INSTEX,” Oil and Gas Bulletin, March 4, 2019, https://www.oilandgasbulletin.com/the-eu-and-iran-sanctions-the-game-behind-instex/.

            46. Michael Young, “Can the Impendings U.S. Embargo on Iranian Oil Alter Tehran's Behavior throughout the Middle East?” Diwan, October 25, 2018, https://carnegiemec.org/diwan/77552.

            47. Ibid.

            48. Saeid Golkar, “Ebrahim Raisi: The Cleric Who could End Iranian Hopes for Change,” Al Jazeera, January 5, 2019, https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/ebrahim-raisi-cleric-iranian-hopes-change-190101105530417.html.

            49. Julian Lee and Alex Longley, “Iran’s Tracked Oil Exports Hit 2 1/2 Year Low before Sanctions,” Bloomberg, October 1, 2018, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-01/iran-s-tracked-oil-exports-hit-2-l-2-year-low-before-sanctions.

            50. Michael Young, “Does Iran have the Means to Further Expand its Influence throughout the Middle East?” Diwan, January 17, 2019, https://carnegie-mec.org/diwan/78129.

            51. Ibid.

            52. Keith Johnson, “Iran’s Economy is Crumbling but Collapse is a Long Way Off,” Foreign Policy, February 13, 2019, https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/02/13/irans-economy-is-crumbling-but-collapse-is-a-long-way-off-jcpoa-waivers-sanctions/.

            53. Najmeh Bozorgmehr, “Iran Develops ‘Economy of Resistance,” Financial Times, September 10, 2012, https://www.ft.com/content/27ec70a6-f911-llel-8d92-00144feabdc0.

            54. “Ayatollah Khamenei: Iran Ready to Abandon Nuclear Deal,” Al Jazeera, August 30, 2018, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/08/ayatollah-khamenei-iran-ready-abandon-nuclear-deal-180829174718094.html.

            55. “Update 4-Iran‘s Khamenei Doubted Europe could Help Tehran against U.S. Sanctions,” Reuters, March 5, 2019, https://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL5N20R5EX.

            56. Dennis Ross, “If Trump Walks Away from the Iran Deal, Tehran will Win,” Washington Post, April 2, 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/if-trump-walks-away-from-the-iran-deal-tehran-will-win/2018/04/02/7e83f2b8-36aa-Ile8-9c0a-85d477d9a226_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.fbf3cac9efd4.

            57. ICG, The Iran Nuclear Deal at Two: A Status Report 181 (Washington, D.C.: International Crisis Group, 2018), https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/gulf-and-arabian-peninsula/iran/181-iran-nuclear-deal-two-status-report.

            58. Interview with Abouzar Nadimi in Sadeq Dehqan, “Iranian Expert: Diplomatic Team Well Aware of JCPOA Dimensions,” Iran Daily, February 12, 2019, http://www.iran-daily.com/News/238791.html.

            59. ICG, How Europe can Save the Iran Nuclear Deal.

            60. “Iran Says Moving Towards Readiness to Ramp up Nuclear Program,” Al-Monitor, January 23, 2019, https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2019/01/iran-nuclear-atomic-salehi-jcpoa-enrichment-arak-calandria.html; and Nasser Karimi and Amir Vahdat, “Iran President: Uranium Enrichment may Resume if Deal Fails,” AP News, May 9, 2018, https://apnews.com/b9487a3c9dd64fdd8a5fedllb86d6717.

            61. ICG, How Europe can Save the Iran Nuclear Deal.

            62. “Iran’s Withdrawal from the NPT can be the Price of the U.S. Withdrawal from the JCPOA,” Resalat, April 11, 2018; and Bozorgmehr Sharafedin, “Iran Warns Trump it might Withdraw from Non-Proliferation Treaty,” Reuters, April 24, 2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-rouhani/iran-warns-trump-it-might-withdraw-from-non-proliferation-treaty-idUSKBN1HV0MY.

            63. ICG, How Europe can Save the Iran Nuclear Deal.

            64. Sanam Vakil, “Under Pressure: US-Iranian Relations in the Age of Trump,” 95.

            65. David Ramin Jalilvand, “What’s Fueling Opposition to Iran's New Oil Contracts?” Al-Monitor, May 25, 2016, https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/05/iran-petroleum-contract-framework-delayed.html; and Cyrus Namjoo Moghadam, “Conflict between Rouhani and Iran's Revolutionary Guards intensifies,” Gulf News, July 31, 2017, https://gulfnews.com/opinion/op-eds/conflict-between-rouhani-and-irans-revolutionary-guards-intensifies-1.2066878.

            66. Najmeh Bozorgmehr, “Iran Cracks Down on Revolutionary Guards Business Network,” Financial Times, September 14, 2017, https://www.ft.com/content/43del388-9857-lle7-a652-cde3f882dd7b.

            67. “Judy Asks: Can the Iran Nuclear Deal be Saved?” Judy Dempsey's Strategic Europe, November 8, 2018, https://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/77672.

            68. Kian Tajbaksh, “Getting Real About Iran,” Foreign Affairs, March 19, 2019, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/iran/2019-03-19/getting-real-about-iran.

            69. Parsi, “EU-Iran Relations: Building Bridges in Stormy Waters,” 120.

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