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Uncertainty over the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action: Iran, the European Union and the United States
Abstract
One of the most significant developments of the year 2018 was US President Trump's decision to pull out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or Iran Nuclear Deal, a multilateral agreement signed between Iran and China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, plus Germany (P5+1). While the US has withdrawn from the deal and the other signatories to the deal are trying to keep Iran in the deal, Iran sees little return in remaining part of the deal. Hence, there is uncertainty about its survival. To study the future of JCPOA, the paper analyzes the future course of action of Iran, the EU and the US vis-à-vis the deal. It looks at US efforts to scuttle the deal, the internal and external pressures on Iran to abide or abandon the deal, and the EU's attempts to appease the US while keeping Iran in the deal. Furthermore, it looks at the bilateral relations between stakeholders and predicts the consequences of the course of action taken by each stakeholder.
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Footnotes
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