Despite being intertwined by geographical, linguistic, regional, religious and ethnic knots, Pakistan and Afghanistan have experienced upheavals in their bilateral relations. Changing regional and international political interests have further complicated their relations. Besides confronting traditional security challenges, Pakistan and Afghanistan are facing a severe non-traditional security threat, i.e., the issue of shared waters without any regulatory mechanism. Despite efforts of international organizations in the past, both countries have failed to reach an agreement over the shared waters. Currently, they are following a unilateral water strategy. Afghanistan-India joint water projects further complicate the situation as Pakistan is already facing issues with the latter due to the increasing number of Indian projects on western rivers. Though water may be critical for the recovery of Afghanistan's agriculture based economy, the projects on Kabul River may have serious implications on downstream irrigation and initiatives, the ecology and bilateral relations between the two riparian countries, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Linked closely to the conflicts among states and societies, water as an environmental security issue must be dealt with the same urgency as traditional security challenges. This paper analyzes the security perceptions in Pakistan and Afghanistan and contends that the probability of a future conflict over shared water has not been duly attended. There is a need to develop an integrated mechanism based on the fundamental principle of benefit-sharing instead of dividing waters or any unilateral decisions.
Marketa Hulpachova and Alex Macbeth, eds., Orphan River: Water Management of the Kabul River Basin in Afghanistan and Pakistan, report (Berlin: Media in Cooperation and Transition, 2015), https://mict-international.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/MiCT_SIWI_Orphan-River_Final.pdf.
Ashfaq Mahmood, “Prospects for Benefit Sharing in the Trans-Boundary Kabul River Basin: Investigating the Social, Economic and Political Opportunities and Constraints” (paper 36, Leadership for Environment and Development (LEAD) Pakistan, Islamabad, 2017), http://bit.ly/2M04TZI.
Peter H. Gleick, “Water and Conflict: Fresh Water Resources and International Security,” International Security 18, no. 1 (1993): 79–112, DOI: 10.2307/2539033.
Quoted in, Bill Cosgrove, “Assessing the Future of Water,” Options, June 25, 2013, http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/resources/mediacenter/FeatureArticles/Water-Meeting-Report.en.html.
Justin Chapman, “Conflict and Climate Exacerbate South Asia's Water Crisis” (Los Angeles: Pacific Council on International Policy, 2017), https://www.pacificcouncil.org/newsroom/conflict-and-climate-exacerbate-south-asia%E2%80%99s-water-crisis; and Iffat Pervaz and Sheharyar Khan, “Brewing Conflict over Kabul River: Policy Options for Legal Framework,” ISSRA Papers 6, no. 2 (2014): 17–38, https://ndu.edu.pk/issra/issra_pub/articles/issra-paper/ISSRA_Papers_Vol6_IssueII_2014/03-Brewing-Conflict-over-Kabul-River.pdf.
UN Water, “Water Security and the Global Water Agenda” (brief, United Nations University, Ontario, 2013), https://www.unwater.org/publications/water-security-global-water-agenda/.
Shabir Ahmad Khan and Muhammad Nafees, “Construction of Dams on Kabul River and its Socio-Economic Implications for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan,” Central Asia Journal 83, no. 1 (2018): 1:18, http://www.asc-centralasia.edu.pk/Issue_83/01%20Shabir%20&%20Nafees%20(l-18).pdf. h. The Amu and the Syr Darya are major common water sources in Central Asian states. These rivers feed the Aral Sea. The riparians are in a state of conflict over the shared waters of the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya, with no visible solution.7 The records show a balance in favor of cooperation over conflict in water related dispute. These bilateral legal regimes in the form of treaties have endured wars in many cases.
Shakeel Azam, “Kabul River Treaty: A Necessity for Peace-n-Security between Afghanistan and Pakistan, and Peace in South Asia,” Gomal University Journal of Research 31, no. 2 (2015):134-145, http://www.gu.edu.pk/New/GUJR/December_2015_PDF/_13_%20Azam_%20KABUL%20RIVER%20TREATY%20A%20NECESSITY%20FOR%20PEACE-N-SECURITY%20BETWEEN%20AFGHANISTAN%20AND%20PAKISTAN,%20AND%20PEACE%20IN%20SOUTH%20ASIA.pdf.
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Mahmood, “Prospects for Benefit Sharing in the Trans-Boundary Kabul River Basin: Investigating the Social, Economic and Political Opportunities and Constraints.”
Ibid.
Switzerland, Germany, Netherland, France, Italy, Austria, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, & Belgium.
UN Water, “Water Security and the Global Water Agenda.”
Ibid.
Indus Waters Treaty 1960, India-Pak.-IBRD, September 19, 1960, 6032, https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTs/Volume%20419/volume-419-I-6032-English.pdf.
M. H. Bukhari and Ejaz Ahmad Sayal, “Emerging Climate Changes and Water Resource Situation in Pakistan,” Pakistan Vision 12, no. 2 (2011): 236–254, pu.edu.pk/images/journal/studies/PDF-FILES/Artical-8_V_12_No_2_Decll.pdf.
Azam, “Kabul River Treaty: A Necessity for Peace-n-Security Between Afghanistan and Pakistan, and Peace in South Asia,” 134–145.
Shaheen Akhtar, “Emerging Challenges to Indus Waters Treaty,” Regional Studies XXVIII, no. 4 (2010): 3–66, https://www.academia.edu/8046599/Emerging_Challenges_to_Indus_Waters_Treaty.
Kalbe Ali, “Dams have Lost 27pc of Storage Capacity: Wapda Report,” Dawn, July 17, 2012, https://www.dawn.com/news/734986.
Pakistan Water & Development Authority, Government of Pakistan, “WAPDA Chairman briefs NDU delegation on water challenges, development projects ‘WAPDA plans to add 20 MAF in water storage, 21000 MW power generation by 2030’,” press release, November 16, 2018, http://bit.ly/2JJ6WhK.
Apportionment of Waters of Indus River System Between the Provinces of Pakistan, Punjab-Sindh-NWFP-Balochistan, March 3, 1991, - http://pakirsa.gov.pk/WAA.aspx.
See Akhtar, “Emerging Challenges to Indus Waters Treaty.”
“Surface Water Resources of North Afghanistan,” CAWater-Info, accessed July 12, 2019, http://www.cawater-info.net/afghanistan/surface_water_e.htm.
Ministry of Water Resources and Environment, Afghanistan, “A Strategic Policy Framework for the Water Sector” (brief, Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan, Kabul, 2004), afghanwaters.net/wp-content/.../10/2004-Strategic-Policy-FW-for-Water-Sector.pdf.
Ibid.
Mahmood, “Prospects for Benefit Sharing in the Trans-Boundary Kabul River Basin: Investigating the Social, Economic and Political Opportunities and Constraints.”
Shahid Ahmad, “Towards Kabul Water Treaty: Water Cooperation for Managing Shared Water Resources: Policy Issues and Options” (paper, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources, Karachi, 2013), 7, http://www.cawater-info.net/afghanistan/pdf/towards_kabul_water_treaty.pdf.
Mahmood, “Prospects for Benefit Sharing in the Trans-Boundary Kabul River Basin: Investigating the Social, Economic and Political Opportunities and Constraints.”
Ibid.
Ibid.
Hulpachova and Macbeth, Orphan River: Water Management of the Kabul River Basin in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Waleed Majidyar, “Afghanistan and Pakistan's Looming Water Conflict,” Diplomat, December 15, 2018, https://thediplomat.com/2018/12/afghanistan-and-pakistans-looming-water-conflict/.
Ibid.
Khan and Nafees, “Construction of Dams on Kabul River and its Socio-Economic Implications for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.”
Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority, GoP, “Warsak” (Government of Pakistan, n.d.), accessed December 20, 2018, http://wapda.gov.pk/index.php/projects/hydro-power/o-m/warsak.
Majidyar, “Afghanistan and Pakistan's Looming Water Conflict.”
Abdur Razzak, “Policy: Water Scarcity May Disrupt Pak-Afghan Relations,” Dawn, November 25, 2018, https://www.dawn.com/news/1447512.
Hulpachova and Macbeth, Orphan River: Water Management of the Kabul River Basin in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
“Accord of Machalgho Dam Construction Signed,” Frontier Post, December 26, 2017, https://thefrontierpost.com/accord-machalgho-dam-construction-signed/.
Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority, GoP, “Kurram Tangi Dam” (Government of Pakistan, n.d.), accessed December 20, 2018, http://www.wapda.gov.pk/index.php/projects/hydro-power/under-construction/kurram-tangi-dam.
Hulpachova and Macbeth, Orphan River: Water Management of the Kabul River Basin in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Mahmood, “Prospects for Benefit Sharing in the Trans-Boundary Kabul River Basin: Investigating the Social, Economic and Political Opportunities and Constraints.”
Daily Hydrological data obtained from Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority, GoP, “Daily Hydrological Data” (Government of Pakistan, April 8, 2015).
Khan and Nafees, “Construction of Dams on Kabul River and its Socio-Economic Implications for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.”
Khalid Aziz, “Need for a Pak-Afghan Treaty on Management of Joint Watercourses,” Criterion Quarterly 2, no. 4 (2013).
Ibid.
Ahmad, “Towards Kabul Water Treaty: Water Cooperation for Managing Shared Water Resources: Policy Issues and Options.”
Aziz, “Need for a Pak-Afghan Treaty on Management of Joint Watercourses.”
Mujib Mashal, “What Iran and Pakistan Want from the Afghans: Water,” Time, December 2, 2012, http://world.time.com/2012/12/02/what-iran-and-pakistan-want-from-the-afghans-water.
Jon Campbell, “Dry and Ravaged Land: Investigating Water Resources in Afghanistan,” Earth, January 4, 2015, https://www.earthmagazine.org/article/dry-and-ravaged-land-investigating-water-resources-afghanistan.
Raza Ullah and Farhad Zulfiqar, “Transboundary Water Issues between Pakistan and Afghanistan” (paper presented at XVI Biennial IASC Conference, Utrecht, July 10–14, 2017), https://www.iasc2017.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/13I_Raza-Ullah.pdf.
Ibid.
GIRoA, “Water Resource Management: 1387–1391 (2007/8-2012/13),“ in Afghanistan National Development Strategy, vol. 2 (Government of Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, 2008), http://www.cawater-info.net/afghanistan/pdf/wss08.pdf.
Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority, GoP, Hydro Potential in Pakistan, report (Government of Pakistan, 2012), http://climateinfo.pk/frontend/web/attachments/datatype/WAPDA%20(2012)%20Hydro%20Potential%20in%20Pakistan.pdf.
Khan and Nafees, “Construction of Dams on Kabul River and its Socio-Economic Implications for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.”
Noreen Naseer, “Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA): Impacts of Militarization and War Crimes on Tribal Women and Children,” Pakistan Journal of Criminology 7, no. 4 (2015): 129.
Elizabeth Hessami, “Afghanistan’s Rivers could be India's Next Weapon Against Pakistan,” Foreign Policy, November 13, 2018, https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/ll/13/afghanistans-rivers-could-be-indias-next-weapon-against-pakistan-water-wars-hydropower-hydrodiplomacy/.
Sudha Ramachandran, “India’s Controversial Afghanistan Dams,” Diplomat, August 20, 2018, https://thediplomat.com/2018/08/indias-controversial-afghanistan-dams/.
Ibid.
“Modi Threatens to Use Water as Weapon against Pakistan,” Dawn, November 26, 2016 https://www.dawn.com/news/1298707/. Indian PM, Narendra Modi has threatened to use water as a weapon against Pakistan in Nov, 2016 he said, “Now every drop of this water [of the Ravi, Beas and Sutlej] will be stopped and I will give that to the farmers of Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir. I am committed to this,” he added. “The water is India's right [but it’s] flowing into Pakistan and going [to] waste into the sea”.
Ullah and Zulfiqar, “Transboundary Water Issues between Pakistan and Afghanistan.”
Hulpachova and Macbeth, Orphan River: Water Management of the Kabul River Basin in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Pervaz and Khan, “Brewing Conflict over Kabul River: Policy Options for Legal Framework.”
Ullah and Zulfiqar, “Transboundary Water Issues between Pakistan and Afghanistan.”
Hulpachova and Macbeth, Orphan River: Water Management of the Kabul River Basin in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Ibid.
Bilal Khalid, Benefit of Sharing on Kabul River Basin: Afghanistan-Pakistan Stakeholders Consultations, report (Islamabad: Leadership for Environment and Development (LEAD) Pakistan, 2018), http://www.lead.org.pk/attachments/Pak-Afghan-Stakeholders-Consultation.pdf.
Mahmood, “Prospects for Benefit Sharing in the Trans-Boundary Kabul River Basin: Investigating the Social, Economic and Political Opportunities and Constraints.”
Ibid.
Such as 1992 Convention, 1997 UN Convention, Madrid Declaration, Helsinki Rules, Berlin Rules.