China's nuclear threat perception, of which its nuclear weapons program is the by-product, is driven by the external strategic environment where the United States (US) is a key player. Chairman Mao Zedong, after the US nuclear intimidation during the Korean War and the Cross-Strait Crises, considered that nuclear weapons were central not only to deter their potential use against China but also to counter the nuclear threat. The geostrategic location of the country makes it vulnerable to a few nuclear powers. However, not all of these states constitute a key concern in Beijing's nuclear threat perception. In this regard, an analysis of the US nuclear weapons program and capabilities would help understand China's nuclear threat perception. The paper aims to explore the threat that China perceives from the US given the latter's growing focus against it, including through its nuclear arsenal. The study, after a brief historical background, begins with a cursory discussion on theoretical underpinnings for threat perception. The next section outlines the US nuclear weapon policy and capability that has a bearing on China's nuclear threat perception. The paper argues that with its intentions and excessive capability, the US is a primary actor in shaping China's nuclear threat perception and altering its long-standing nuclear weapons policy and modernization of its nuclear forces.
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ACA, “Current U.S. Missile Defense Programs at a Glance.”
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ACA, “Current U.S. Missile Defense Programs at a Glance.”
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Tong Zhao, Narrowing the U.S.-China Gap on Missile Defense: How to Help Forestall a Nuclear Arms Race, report (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2020), 5-58, https://carnegieendowment.org/files/Zhao_USChina_MissileDefense.pdf; Li Bin, “Tracking Chinese Strategic Mobile Missiles,” Science and Global Security 15, no. 1 (2007): 1–30, https://doi.org/10.1080/08929880701350197; Lieber and Press, “The New Era of Counterforce: Technological Change and the Future of Nuclear Deterrence”; Tong Zhao, “U.S. Nuclear Primacy and the Future of the Chinese Deterrent,” China Security (Winter 2007): 66–89, https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/29406/cs5_FULL.pdf; and Austin Long and Brendan Rittenhouse Green, “Stalking the Secure Second Strike: Intelligence, Counterforce, and Nuclear Strategy,” Journal of Strategic Studies 38, no. 1–2 (2015): 38–73, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01402390.2014.958150.
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Amy F. Woolf, Conventional Prompt Global Strike and Long-Range Ballistic Missiles: Background and Issues, report (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 2021), https://fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/R41464.pdf.
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GoUS, The National Military Strategy of the United States of America, (Government of United States, 2004), https://history.defense.gov/Portals/70/Documents/nms/nms2004.pdf?ver=UHt7ntCXi1EO3mgZSqFvNA%3d%3d.
Department of Defense, GoUS, Quadrennial Defense Review Report (Government of United States, 2006), 49-50, http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/policy/dod/qdr-2006-report.pdf.
Department of Defense, Quadrennial Defense Review Report (Government of United States, 2010), 32-33, https://history.defense.gov/Portals/70/Documents/quadrennial/QDR2010.pdf?ver=vVJYRVwNdnGb_00ixF0UfQ%3d%3d.
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Ibid.
Department of Defense, GoUS, Nuclear Posture Review Report 2010, 34.
Ibid.
Yao Yunzhu, “China Will Not Change Its Nuclear Policy,” China-U.S. Focus, April 22, 2013, http://www.chinausfocus.com/peace-security/china-will-not-change-its-no-first-use-policy; also see Woolf, Conventional Prompt Global Strike and Long-Range Ballistic Missiles: Background and Issues.
M. Taylor Fravel and Fiona S. Cunningham, “Assuring Assured Retaliation: China's Nuclear Posture and U.S.-China Strategic Stability,” International Security 40, no. 2 (2015): 7–50.(20-22, 44), https://doi.org/10.1162/ISEC_a_00215.
Ibid.
Amy F. Woolf, Conventional Prompt Global Strike and Long-Range Ballistic Missiles: Background and Issues, report (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 2019),https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6271735/Conventional-Prompt-Global-Strike-and-Long-Range.pdf.
Ibid, 4.
National Defense Authorization Act of 2013, Pub. L. No. 112–239—(2013), https://www.congress.gov/112/plaws/publ239/PLAW-112publ239.pdf.
Tong Zhao, “Conventional Counterforce Strike and Damage Limitation” (paper, Sam Nunn School of International Affairs, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, 2011), https://igcc.ucsd.edu/_files/PPNT/NuclearBriefing2presentation1.pdf.
Department of Defense, GoUS, Nuclear Posture Review 2018.
AMS, 战略学 [The Science of Military Strategy 2013], 171.