The Keystone XL (KXL) pipeline is one of the most polarised examples of contemporary American energy politics. The pipeline policy process has not been stable, so it should be analysed over time via a holistic, historical view of interacting dimensions. Robert Cox’s theoretical notions of the “materials–ideas–institutions” balance are drawn upon to understand how actors’ motivations behind policy development were re-shaped through temporal processes over nearly two decades. A critical feature identified is how such interacting dimensions became significant according to specific US presidential administrations: each, in turn, shifting the direction of decision-making around KXL. The article’s originality lies in operationalising the theory to give an alternative, dynamic explanation for policy motivations around the KXL while also establishing a novel theoretical lens to generally view such policy development.
M. AlvessonK. Sköldberg. 2009. Reflexive Methodology: New Vistas for Qualitative Research. 2nd ed. London: SAGE Publications Ltd.
R. Aminzade 1992. “ Historical Sociology and Time.” Sociological Methods & Research 20 ( 4): 456– 480.
AICAPP (Anderson Insight for the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers). 2012. Research Results: American Opinions about Canadian Oil. Accessed July 4, 2018. https://www.capp.ca/~/media/capp/customer-portal/documents/216936.pdf?la=en&modified=20150309152318.
API (American Petroleum Institute). 2015. “ President Obama Should Follow Congress’ Lead on KXL.” Accessed July 4, 2018. http://www.api.org/news-policy-and-issues/news/2015/01/09/president-obama-should-follow-congress-l.
S. Avery 2013. The Pipeline and the Paradigm: Keystone XL, Tar Sands, and the Battle to Defuse the Carbon Bomb. Washington, DC: Duka Press.
H. M. Babcock 2020. “ Issuance of the Keystone XL Permit: Presidential Prerogative or Presidential ‘Chutzpah.’” Montana Law Review 81 ( 1): 1– 54.
A. Barry 2013. Material Politics: Disputes along the Pipeline. Oxford: Wiley-Blackwell.
BBC . 2019. “ Trans Mountain: Canada Approves $5.5bn Oil Pipeline Project.” Accessed June 21, 2019. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-48641293.
BP. 2019. “ BP Annual Report.” Accessed June 21, 2019. https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/investors/results-and-reporting/annual-report.html.
E. A. Bradshaw 2015. “ Blockadia Rising: Rowdy Greens, Direct Action and the Keystone XL Pipeline.” Critical Criminology 23 ( 4): 433– 448.
G. BridgeB. ÖzkaynakE. Turhan. 2018. “ Energy Infrastructure and the Fate of the Nation: Introduction to Special Issue.” Energy Research & Social Science 41: 1– 11.
J. M. Budd 2008. “ Critical Theory.” In The SAGE Encyclopaedia of Qualitative Research Methods, edited by L. M. Given, 174– 179. Thousand Oaks: SAGE Publications.
Bush Center. 2015. “ Disappointment in Obama Administration’s Rejection of the Keystone XL Pipeline.” Accessed July 4, 2018. http://www.bushcenter.org/about-the-center/newsroom/press-releases/2015/11/disappointment-in-obama-administrations-rejection-of-the-keystone-xl-pipeline-.html.
CAPP (Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers). 2017. “ Crude Oil Forecast, Markets and Transportation.” Accessed July 13, 2018. http://www.oscaalberta.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/CAPP-2017-Crude-Oil-Forecast.pdf.
A. CheonJ. Urpelainen. 2018. Activism and the Fossil Fuel Industry. Oxon: Routledge.
CNN & ORC. 2014. “ Poll.” Accessed July 13, 2018. http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/01/14/keystone.pdf.
Congress of the United States. 2009. “ H.R.2454—American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009.” Accessed July 3, 2018. https://www.congress.gov/bill/111th-congress/house-bill/2454.
Congress of the United States. 2011. “ H.R.1938—North American-Made Energy Security Act.” Accessed July 3, 2018. https://www.congress.gov/bill/112th-congress/house-bill/1938/text.
Congress of the United States. 2014. “ H.R.5682—To Approve the Keystone XL Pipeline.” Accessed July 4, 2018. https://www.congress.gov/bill/113th-congress/house-bill/5682.
Congress of the United States. 2015. “ H.R.3—Keystone XL Pipeline Act.” Accessed July 4, 2018. https://www.congress.gov/bill/114th-congress/house-bill/3/actions.
R. W. Cox 1981. “ Social Forces, States and World Orders: Beyond International Relations Theory.” Millennium: Journal of International Studies 10 ( 2): 126– 155.
R. W. Cox 1992. “ Multilateralism and World Order.” Review of International Studies 18 ( 2): 161– 180.
R. W. Cox 1993a. “ Towards a Post-Hegemonic Conceptualisation of World Order: Reflections on the Relevancy of Ibn Khaldun.” In Gramsci, Historical Materialism and International Relations, 1st ed., edited by S. Gill, 132– 159. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
R. W. Cox 1993b. “ Gramsci, Hegemony and International Relations: An Essay in Method.” In Gramsci, Historical Materialism and International Relations, 1st ed., edited by S. Gill, 49– 66. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
R. W. CoxM. G. Schechter. 2002. The Political Economy of a Plural World: Critical Reflection on Power, Morals and Civilisation. London: Routledge.
J. H. Cushman Jr. 2014. Keystone & Beyond: Tar Sands and the National Interest in the Era of Climate Change. Brooklyn, NY: Inside Climate News.
DOS (Department of State). 2004. “ Executive Order 13337: Issuance of Permits with respect to Certain Energy-Related Facilities and Land Transportation Crossings on the International Boundaries of the United States.” Accessed July 2, 2018. https://www.state.gov/p/wha/rls/95020.htm.
DOS. 2008a. “ Record of Decision and National Interest Determination: TransCanada Keystone Pipeline.” Accessed July 2, 2018. https://puc.sd.gov/commission/dockets/hydrocarbonpipeline/2007/hp07-001/111908/signed.pdf.
DOS. 2008b. “ United States Department of State Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Keystone Oil Pipeline Project.” Accessed July 2, 2018. https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2015/08/f25/EIS-0410-FEIS-2008-Sections_1-5.pdf.
DOS. 2012. “ Report to Congress: Under the Temporary Payroll Tax Cut Continuation Act of 2011 Section 501(b)(2).” Accessed July 17, 2018. https://2009–2017.state.gov/e/eb/esc/iec/permit/keystonexl/182277.htm.
DOS. 2013. “ Keystone XL Pipeline Evaluation Process Factsheet 2013.” Accessed July 3, 2018. https://keystonepipeline-xl.state.gov/documents/organization/205761.pdf.
EDF (Environmental Defense Fund). 2019. “ How Cap and Trade Works.” Accessed July 13, 2018. https://www.edf.org/climate/how-cap-and-trade-works.
EIA (Energy Information Administration). 2019. “ Petroleum & Other Liquids.” Accessed July 13, 2018. https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/data.php#crude.
EIA. 2020a. “ Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB.” Accessed October 6, 2020. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=RWTC&f=A.
EIA. 2020b. “ U.S. Net Imports of Crude Oil.” Accessed October 6, 2020. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRNTUS2&f=A.
EIA. 2020c. “ U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil.” Accessed October 6, 2020. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS2&f=A.
EPA (Environmental Protection Agency). 2013. “ Comments on Draft Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement.” Accessed July 3, 2018. https://alternativeenergy.procon.org/sourcefiles/keystone-xl-project-epa-comment-letter-apr-2013.pdf.
P. EricksonM. Lazarus. 2014. “ Impact of the Keystone XL Pipeline on Global Oil Markets and Greenhouse Gas Emissions.” Nature Climate Change 4 ( 1): 778– 781.
A. Fair 2014. “ Labour, Environmentalism and the Keystone XL Pipeline: Strategies for Economic Justice and Union Renewal.” Accessed June 21, 2019. https://www.global-labour-university.org/fileadmin/GLU_conference_2014/papers/ElyFair-KeystonePipelineSubmission.pdf.
Frontiers of Freedom. 2015. “ Letters of Support S.1. Keystone Act.” Accessed July 4, 2018. https://archives-energycommerce.house.gov/news-center/letters/letters-support-s-1-keystone-xl-pipeline-approval-act.
S. R. GillD. Law. 1989. “ Global Hegemony and the Structural Power of Capital.” International Studies Quarterly 33 ( 4): 475– 499.
T. B. GravelleE. Lachapelle. 2015. “ Politics, Proximity and the Pipeline: Mapping Public Attitudes toward Keystone XL.” Energy Policy 83 ( 1): 99– 108.
J. Hämäläinen 2013. Cross-National Research of Social Work: Designing Comparative Studies. Accessed June 21, 2019. http://www.iuc.hr/IucAdmin/Server/downloads/Juha_Hamalainen_Cross_national_Research_of_Social_Work.pdf.
M. Hoffman 1987. “ Critical Theory and the Inter-paradigm Debate.” Millennium: Journal of International Studies 16 ( 2): 231– 249.
A. Janzwood 2020. “ Explaining Variation in Oil Sands Pipeline Projects.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 53 ( 3): 1– 20.
B. Jessop 2010. “ Cultural Political Economy and Critical Policy Studies.” Critical Policy Studies 3 ( 3–4): 336– 356.
S. Kalen 2012. “ Thirst for Oil and the Keystone XL Pipeline.” Creighton Law Review 46 ( 1): 1– 26.
E. D. Kojola 2015. “ (Re)constructing the Pipeline: Workers, Environmentalists and Ideology in Media Coverage of the Keystone XL Pipeline.” Critical Sociology 43 ( 6): 1– 25.
M. LazarusH. van Asselt. 2018. “ Fossil Fuel Supply and Climate Policy: Exploring the Road Less Taken.” Climate Change 150 ( 1): 1– 13.
D. L. LevyP. Newell. 2005. “ A Neo-Gramscian Approach to Business in International Environmental Politics: An Interdisciplinary, Multi-level Framework.” In The Business of Global Environmental Governance, edited by D. L. LevyP. J. Newell, 47– 69. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
H. W. Maull 2019. “ The Once and Future Liberal Order.” Survival: Global Politics and Strategy 61 ( 2): 7– 32.
J. McCormick 2014. “ Ben Carson Not Convinced on Global Warming.” Accessed July 4, 2018. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014–11-26/ben-carson-not-convinced-on-global-warming.
NAM (National Association of Manufacturers). 2015. “ Letters of Support S.1. Keystone Act.” Accessed July 4, 2018. https://archives-energycommerce.house.gov/news-center/letters/letters-support-s-1-keystone-xl-pipeline-approval-act.
NEB (National Energy Board). 2005. “ NEB Intervenor Information Request for Mackenzie Gas Project.” Accessed July 2, 2018. https://www.neb-one.gc.ca/pplctnflng/mjrpp/mcknzgsxtnsn/index-eng.html#s1].
NEB. 2006. “ Keystone Pipeline Project: Preliminary Information Package.” Accessed July 2, 2018. https://docs2.neb-one.gc.ca/ll-eng/llisapi.dll/fetch/2000/90464/90552/418396/418493/417881/A0U9A7_-_Preliminary_Information_Package.pdf?nodeid=417885&vernum=-2.
NEB. 2013. “ Market Diversification for Canadian Oil and Gas.” Accessed June 25, 2019. http://www.neb-one.gc.ca/pplctnflng/mjrpp/kstnxl2/index-eng.html.
NEB. 2019. “ Energy Information Program—Glossary.” Accessed June 25, 2019. http://www.neb-one.gc.ca/nrg/tl/glssr-eng.html.
National Geographic . 2010. “ Heat Wave: 2010 to Be One of Hottest Years on Record.” Accessed July 13, 2018. https://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2010/07/100726-heat-wave-hottest-year-2010-global-warming-science-environment/.
National Geographic Blog. 2014. “ Cowboys and Indians Stand Together against Keystone XL.” Accessed July 13, 2018. https://blog.nationalgeographic.org/2014/05/14/cowboys-and-indians-stand-together-against-keystone-xl/.
New York Times . 2012. “ Hillary Clinton Says She Opposes Keystone Pipeline.” Accessed July 13, 2018. https://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/09/22/hillary-clinton-says-she-opposes-keystone-pipeline/?mtrref=undefined&gwh=5759B0E76FC8D7091A341EE201244862&gwt=pay.
P. Newell 2008. “ The Political Economy of Global Environmental Governance.” Review of International Studies 34 ( 3): 507– 529.
P. Newell 2019. “ Trasformismo or Transformation? The Global Political Economy of Energy Transitions.” Review of International Political Economy 26 ( 1): 25– 48.
P. NewellM. Paterson. 1998. “ A Climate for Business: Global Warming, the State and Capital.” Review of International Political Economy 5 ( 4): 679– 703.
P. W. ParfomakN. NerurkarL. LutherV. K. Burrows. 2011. “ Keystone XL Pipeline Project: Key Issues.” Congressional Research Service Report. Accessed July 3, 2018. https://digitalcommons.ilr.cornell.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1880&context=key_workplace.
Pew Research Center. 2013. “ Continued Support for Keystone XL Pipeline.” Accessed July 3, 2018. http://www.people-press.org/2013/09/26/continued-support-for-keystone-xl-pipeline/.
Pew Research Center. 2014. “ Little Enthusiasm, Familiar Division after the GOP’s Bid Midterm Victor: Most Expect Obama to Get Little Done over Next Two Years.” Accessed July 4, 2018. http://www.people-press.org/2014/11/12/little-enthusiasm-familiar-divisions-after-the-gops-big-midterm-victory/.
A. G. Price 1950. White Settlers and Native Peoples. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Priceofoil.org . 2017. “ 460,000+ Comments against Keystone XL Delivered to Nebraska Commission.” Accessed July 13, 2018. http://priceofoil.org/2017/08/10/keystone-xl-psc-comment-delivery/.
Protect the Sacred Gathering. 2013. “ Overview of the Protect the Sacred Gathering—Brave Heart Society Grandmother Faith Spotted Eagle.” [video.] Accessed July 13, 2018. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ZfCGtpQWGM.
M. Rubio 2012. “ Keystone Pipeline Should Move Forward.” Accessed July 4, 2018. https://www.rubio.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/fighting-for-florida?ID=79fea49f-935b-42f2-9864-b379a48c6fd0.
M. Rupert 1995. Producing Hegemony: The Politics of Mass Production and American Global Power. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
D. RusselD. Benson. 2014. “ Green Budgeting in an Age of Austerity: A Transatlantic Comparative Perspective.” Environmental Politics 23 ( 2): 243– 262.
B. Sanders 2012. “ Sanders Statement on Keystone XL Pipeline.” Accessed July 3, 2018. https://www.sanders.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/sanders-statement-on-keystone-xl-pipeline.
D. Sassoon 2010. “ EPA Slams State Department on Proposed Oil Pipeline.” Inside Climate News. Accessed July 3, 2018. https://insideclimatenews.org/news/20100727/epa-slams-state-department-proposed-oil-pipeline.
T. Schleifer 2015. “ Donald Trump Supports the Keystone Pipeline.” Accessed July 13, 2018. https://edition.cnn.com/2015/08/18/politics/donald-trump-keystone-pipeline-support/.
Senate of the United States. 2014. “ S.2280–A Bill to Approve the Keystone XL Pipeline.” Accessed July 17, 2018. https://www.congress.gov/bill/113th-congress/senate-bill/2280.
Senate of the United States. 2015. “ S.1–Keystone XL Pipeline Approval Act.” Accessed July 4, 2018. https://www.congress.gov/bill/114th-congress/senate-bill/1/actions.
T. J. Sinclair 2016. “ Robert W. Cox’s Method of Historical Structures Redux.” Globalizations 13 ( 5): 510– 519.
B. Stephan 2011. “ The Power in Carbon: A Neo-Gramscian Explanation for the EU’s Adoption of Emissions Trading.” Accessed November 10, 2020. https://epub.sub.uni-hamburg.de/epub/volltexte/2018/76965/pdf/wps_no04.pdf.
B. TernesJ. OrdnerD. H. Cooper. 2020. “ Grassroots Resistance to Energy Project Encroachment: Analysing Environmental Mobilisation against the Keystone XL Pipeline.” Journal of Civil Society 16 ( 1): 44– 60.
The Heritage Foundation. 2001. “ Why President Bush Is Right to Abandon the Kyoto Protocol.” Accessed July 13, 2018. https://www.heritage.org/environment/report/why-president-bush-right-abandon-the-kyoto-protocol#pgfId=1137620.
United States District Court for Montana. 2018. “ In the United States District Court for the District of Montana Great Falls Division.” Accessed June 25, 2019. http://www.nacwa.org/docs/default-source/resources--public/montanavariancedecision032519.pdf?sfvrsn=2.
TransCanada. 2005. Annual Report: 2004. Accessed January 18, 2022. https://www.annualreports.com/Company/transcanada-corporation.
TransCanada. 2006a. Annual Report: 2005. Accessed January 18, 2022. https://www.annualreports.com/Company/transcanada-corporation.
TransCanada. 2006b. “ Keystone Pipeline Preliminary Information Package Cover Letter.” Accessed July 2, 2018. https://apps.neb-one.gc.ca/REGDOCS/Item/View/417881.
TransCanada. 2008. “ Keystone Pipeline to Expand to Serve the U.S. Gulf Coast.” Accessed July 2, 2018. https://www.transcanada.com/en/announcements/2008–07-16keystone-pipeline-to-expand-to-serve-the-u.s.-gulf-coast.
TransCanada. 2012. “ TransCanada Will Re-apply for a Keystone XL Permit.” Accessed July 3, 2018. https://www.transcanada.com/en/announcements/2012–01-18transcanada-will-re-apply-for-a-keystone-xl-permit/.
TransCanada. 2020. “ T. C. Energy to Build Keystone XL Pipeline.” Accessed October 6, 2020. https://www.transcanada.com/en/announcements/2012–01-18transcanada-will-re-apply-for-a-keystone-xl-permit/.
UCC (United States Chamber of Commerce). 2015. “ Letters of Support S.1. Keystone Act.” Accessed July 4, 2018. https://archives-energycommerce.house.gov/news-center/letters/letters-support-s-1-keystone-xl-pipeline-approval-act.
West Virginia University. 2015. “ Determinants of Voting Behaviour on the Keystone XL Pipeline.” Accessed July 4, 2018. https://business.wvu.edu/files/d/f14858a0-ebd5-4f73-a27c-f6e6c1ab37d1/15–35.pdf.
White House. 2011a. “ Statement by the President on the State Department’s Keystone XL Pipeline Announcement.” Accessed July 3, 2018. https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2011/11/10/statement-president-state-departments-keystone-xl-pipeline-announcement.
White House. 2011b. “ Readout by the Press Secretary on the President’s Meeting with Prime Minister Harper of Canada.” Accessed July 3, 2018. https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2011/11/13/readout-press-secretary-presidents-meeting-prime-minister-harper-canada.
White House. 2015a. “ Veto Message to the Senate: S.1, Keystone XL Pipeline Approval Act.” Accessed July 4, 2018. https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2015/02/24/veto-message-senate-s-1-keystone-xl-pipeline-approval-act.
White House. 2015b. “ Statement by the President on the Keystone XL Pipeline.” Accessed July 4, 2018. https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2015/11/06/statement-president-keystone-xl-pipeline.
White House. 2017. “ President Trump Takes Action to Expedite Priority Energy and Infrastructure Projects.” Accessed July 13, 2018. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/president-trump-takes-action-expedite-priority-energy-infrastructure-projects/.
White House. 2019. “ Presidential Permit.” Accessed July 13, 2018. https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/presidential-permit/.
White House. 2021. “ Executive Order on Protecting Public Health and the Environment and Restoring Science to Tackle the Climate Crisis.” Accessed July 13, 2018. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/01/20/executive-order-protecting-public-health-and-environment-and-restoring-science-to-tackle-climate-crisis/.
R. K. Yin 1994. Case Study Research Design and Methods: Applied Social Research and Methods Series. 2nd ed. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications Inc.
Q. Zhang 2020. “ Legal Options to Stop the Revival of Keystone XL Pipeline.” Environmental Claims Journal 32 ( 3): 201– 220.
H. Zichal 2012. “ Increasing Energy Security.” Accessed July 3, 2018. https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2012/01/18/increasing-energy-security.