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      Prediction of Overoptimistic Predictions

      1 , 2 , 2

      10th International Conference on Evaluation and Assessment in Software Engineering (EASE) (EASE)

      Evaluation and Assessment in Software Engineering (EASE)

      10 - 11 April 2006

      Effort prediction, optimism, ASQ, LOT-R

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          Abstract

          Overoptimistic predictions are common in software engineering projects, e.g., the average software project cost overrun is about 30%. This paper examines the use of two popular general tests of optimism (the ASQ and the LOT-R test) to select software engineers that are less likely to provide overoptimistic predictions. A necessary, but not sufficient, condition for this use is that there is a strong relationship between optimism score, as measured by the ASQ and LOT-R tests, and predictions. We report from two experiments on this topic. The experiments suggest that the relation between optimism score as measured by ASQ or LOT-R and predictions is too weak to enable a use of these optimism measurement instruments to select more realistic estimators in software organizations. Our results also suggest that a person’s general level of optimism and over-optimistic predictions of performance are, to a large extent, unrelated.

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          Most cited references 13

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          Illusion and well-being: a social psychological perspective on mental health.

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            Are we all less risky and more skillful than our fellow drivers?

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Conference
                April 2006
                April 2006
                : 1-10
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Simula Research Laboratory, P.O. Box 134, NO-1325 Lysaker, Norway
                [2 ]Hedmark University, Rena, Norway
                10.14236/ewic/EASE2006.5
                © Magne Jørgensen et al. Published by BCS Learning and Development Ltd. 10th International Conference on Evaluation and Assessment in Software Engineering (EASE), Keele University, UK

                This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

                10th International Conference on Evaluation and Assessment in Software Engineering (EASE)
                EASE
                10
                Keele University, UK
                10 - 11 April 2006
                Electronic Workshops in Computing (eWiC)
                Evaluation and Assessment in Software Engineering (EASE)
                Product
                Product Information: 1477-9358 BCS Learning & Development
                Self URI (journal page): https://ewic.bcs.org/
                Categories
                Electronic Workshops in Computing

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