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      Simplified climate modelling to size economic boundaries

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      research-article
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            Abstract

            Pencil-and-paper climate modelling is extracted from the comprehensive previous research on the inherently complex natural processes. A major goal is to mediate between general scientific knowledge and the wide-spread scepticism by identifying the driving forces, seeking simple descriptions, uncovering reproducibility, and thus contributing to transparency. The results of the shortcut model are in outstanding agreement with earlier measurement data and simulation studies. Two observations are fundamentally novel requiring scrutinization by the natural sciences community: (1) near-proportionality of atmospheric infrared absorption to particle densities and (2), temperature impact from human energy consumption. Independently, the presented framework allows for straightforward climate projections and risk assessment. As result, future economic growth is demanded to zero, even in a renewables (Green Growth) world.

            Content

            Author and article information

            Journal
            ScienceOpen Preprints
            ScienceOpen
            18 September 2020
            Affiliations
            [1 ] BHU Research
            Article
            10.14293/S2199-1006.1.SOR-.PPYDLMQ.v2
            c1979723-c21d-4608-90d2-c8dea3fc9b15

            This work has been published open access under Creative Commons Attribution License CC BY 4.0 , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Conditions, terms of use and publishing policy can be found at www.scienceopen.com .

            Funding
            No funding privided. No grant provided.

            The datasets generated during and/or analysed during the current study are available in the repository: https://c.gmx.net/@797062368830953113/H_00zuerSK22tA3S5PCUog
            Earth & Environmental sciences
            paleoclimate,climate modelling,atmospheric absorption,ocean-atmosphere interaction,ocean heat content,anthropogenic emission,energy consumption,risk assessment,climate projection,green growth

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