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      Simplified climate modelling to size economic boundaries

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          Abstract

          The broader public demand reproducibility of scientific results particularly related to hot societal topics. The present work applies the 80:20-rule to climate change, concentrating on the essentials from the readily observable and identifying the inherent relationships in their potential simplicity. Observations on 400 Mio. years of paleoclimate are found to well constrain the compound universal climate role of CO 2. Combined with observations on the industrial-era atmospheric CO 2 and ocean heat evolvement, climate risk assessment and projections on the economic boundaries are performed. Independently in conjunction with energy budget studies, simple models are presented for the fundamental natural processes related to: (i) water vapor and CO 2 effect on temperature; (ii) transient and equilibrium climate; (iii) heating from the V/R-T (vibrational/rotational to translational) energy transfer; (iv) Earth emissivity changing with surface temperature; (v) water vapor for Earths energy balance maintenance; (vi) rainfall pattern altering with temperature; (vii) natures reaction on the anthropogenic energy consumption. In conclusion, realistic estimates point at precluding positive economic growth for the foreseeable future if temperatures are to be given a reasonable chance to become sustainably contained within sensible limits.

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          Author and article information

          Journal
          ScienceOpen Preprints
          ScienceOpen
          21 December 2020
          Affiliations
          [1 ] BHU Research
          Article
          10.14293/S2199-1006.1.SOR-.PPYDLMQ.v3

          This work has been published open access under Creative Commons Attribution License CC BY 4.0 , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Conditions, terms of use and publishing policy can be found at www.scienceopen.com .

          Funding
          No funding privided. No grant provided.

          The datasets generated during and/or analysed during the current study are available in the repository: https://c.gmx.net/@797062368830953113/H_00zuerSK22tA3S5PCUog

          Earth & Environmental sciences

          energy budget, green growth, climate projection, risk assessment, energy consumption, anthropogenic emission, ocean heat content, atmospheric absorption, climate modelling, paleoclimate

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