The Addition of C‐Reactive Protein and von Willebrand Factor to MELD‐Na Improves Prediction of Waitlist Mortality

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Abstract

<div class="section"> <a class="named-anchor" id="hep31838-sec-0001">  </a> <h5 class="section-title" id="d905712e588">Background and Aims</h5> <p id="d905712e590">Patients with cirrhosis on the liver transplant (LT) waiting list may die or be removed because of complications of portal hypertension (PH) or infections. von Willebrand factor antigen (vWF‐Ag) and C‐reactive protein (CRP) are simple, broadly available markers of these processes. </p> </div><div class="section"> <a class="named-anchor" id="hep31838-sec-0002">  </a> <h5 class="section-title" id="d905712e593">Approach and Results</h5> <p id="d905712e595">We determined whether addition of vWF‐Ag and CRP to the Model for End‐Stage Liver Disease‐Sodium (MELD‐Na) score improves risk stratification of patients awaiting LT. CRP and vWF‐Ag at LT listing were assessed in two independent cohorts (Medical University of Vienna [exploration cohort] and Mayo Clinic Rochester [validation cohort]). Clinical characteristics, MELD‐Na, and mortality on the waiting list were recorded. Prediction of 3‐month waiting list mortality was assessed by receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC‐AUC). In order to explore potential mechanisms underlying the prognostic utility of vWF‐Ag and CRP in this setting, we evaluated their association with PH, bacterial translocation, systemic inflammation, and circulatory dysfunction. In the exploration cohort (n = 269) vWF‐Ag and CRP both improved the predictive value of MELD‐Na for 3‐month waitlist mortality and showed the highest predictive value when combined (AUC: MELD‐Na, 0.764; MELD‐Na + CRP, 0.790; MELD‐Na + vWF, 0.803; MELD‐Na + CRP + vWF‐Ag, 0.824). Results were confirmed in an independent validation cohort (n = 129; AUC: MELD‐Na, 0.677; MELD‐Na + CRP + vWF‐Ag, 0.882). vWF‐Ag was independently associated with PH and inflammatory biomarkers, whereas CRP closely, and MELD independently, correlated with biomarkers of bacterial translocation/inflammation. </p> </div><div class="section"> <a class="named-anchor" id="hep31838-sec-0003">  </a> <h5 class="section-title" id="d905712e598">Conclusions</h5> <p id="d905712e600">The addition of vWF‐Ag and CRP—reflecting central pathophysiological mechanisms of PH, bacterial translocation, and inflammation, that are all drivers of mortality on the waiting list for LT—to the MELD‐Na score improves prediction of waitlist mortality. Using the vWFAg‐CRP‐MELD‐Na model for prioritizing organ allocation may improve prediction of waitlist mortality and decrease waitlist mortality. </p> </div>

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Hyponatremia and mortality among patients on the liver-transplant waiting list.

W Ray Kim, Scott Biggins, Walter K. Kremers … (2008)

Under the current liver-transplantation policy, donor organs are offered to patients with the highest risk of death. Using data derived from all adult candidates for primary liver transplantation who were registered with the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network in 2005 and 2006, we developed and validated a multivariable survival model to predict mortality at 90 days after registration. The predictor variable was the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score with and without the addition of the serum sodium concentration. The MELD score (on a scale of 6 to 40, with higher values indicating more severe disease) is calculated on the basis of the serum bilirubin and creatinine concentrations and the international normalized ratio for the prothrombin time. In 2005, there were 6769 registrants, including 1781 who underwent liver transplantation and 422 who died within 90 days after registration on the waiting list. Both the MELD score and the serum sodium concentration were significantly associated with mortality (hazard ratio for death, 1.21 per MELD point and 1.05 per 1-unit decrease in the serum sodium concentration for values between 125 and 140 mmol per liter; P<0.001 for both variables). Furthermore, a significant interaction was found between the MELD score and the serum sodium concentration, indicating that the effect of the serum sodium concentration was greater in patients with a low MELD score. When applied to the data from 2006, when 477 patients died within 3 months after registration on the waiting list, the combination of the MELD score and the serum sodium concentration was considerably higher than the MELD score alone in 32 patients who died (7%). Thus, assignment of priority according to the MELD score combined with the serum sodium concentration might have resulted in transplantation and prevented death. This population-wide study shows that the MELD score and the serum sodium concentration are important predictors of survival among candidates for liver transplantation. 2008 Massachusetts Medical Society

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Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and allocation of donor livers.

Russell Wiesner, Erick B Edwards, Richard Freeman … (2003)

A consensus has been reached that liver donor allocation should be based primarily on liver disease severity and that waiting time should not be a major determining factor. Our aim was to assess the capability of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score to correctly rank potential liver recipients according to their severity of liver disease and mortality risk on the OPTN liver waiting list. The MELD model predicts liver disease severity based on serum creatinine, serum total bilirubin, and INR and has been shown to be useful in predicting mortality in patients with compensated and decompensated cirrhosis. In this study, we prospectively applied the MELD score to estimate 3-month mortality to 3437 adult liver transplant candidates with chronic liver disease who were added to the OPTN waiting list at 2A or 2B status between November, 1999, and December, 2001. In this study cohort with chronic liver disease, 412 (12%) died during the 3-month follow-up period. Waiting list mortality increased directly in proportion to the listing MELD score. Patients having a MELD score or =40 had a mortality rate of 71.3%. Using the c-statistic with 3-month mortality as the end point, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for the MELD score was 0.83 compared with 0.76 for the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score (P < 0.001). These data suggest that the MELD score is able to accurately predict 3-month mortality among patients with chronic liver disease on the liver waiting list and can be applied for allocation of donor livers.