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Abstract
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<p id="p0005">Mean city centre winter UHI intensity was +2.3 °C reaching maximum of
+9.9 °C.</p>
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<p id="p0010">Winter UHI reduces cold-related mortality by 15% (266 deaths avoided).</p>
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<p id="p0015">This compares with increased mortality of 36% (96 deaths) in summer.</p>
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<p id="p0020">Winter UHI continues to have a protective effect in future climate.</p>
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</p><p class="first" id="d3442159e187">Exposure to heat has a range of potential negative
impacts on human health; hot weather
may exacerbate cardiovascular and respiratory illness or lead to heat stroke and death.
Urban populations are at increased risk due to the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect
(higher urban temperatures compared with rural ones). This has led to extensive investigation
of the summertime UHI and its effects, whereas far less research focuses on the wintertime
UHI. Exposure to low temperature also leads to a range of illnesses, and in fact,
in the UK, annual cold-related mortality outweighs heat-related mortality. It is not
clearly understood to what extent the wintertime UHI may protect against cold related
mortality.
</p><p id="d3442159e189">In this study we quantify the UHI intensity in wintertime
for a heavily urbanized
UK region (West Midlands, including Birmingham) using a regional weather model, and
for the first time, use a health impact assessment (HIA) to estimate the associated
impact on cold-related mortality.
</p><p id="d3442159e191">We show that the population-weighted mean winter UHI intensity
was +2.3 °C in Birmingham
city center, and comparable with that of summer. Our results suggest a potential protective
effect of the wintertime UHI, equivalent to 266 cold-related deaths avoided (~15%
of total cold-related mortality over ~11 weeks). When including the impacts of climate
change, our results suggest that the number of heat-related deaths associated with
the summer UHI will increase from 96 (in 2006) to 221 in the 2080s, based on the RCP8.5
emissions pathway. The protective effect of the wintertime UHI is projected to increase
only slightly from 266 cold-related deaths avoided in 2009 to 280 avoided in the 2080s.
The different effects of the UHI in winter and summer should be considered when assessing
interventions in the built environment for reducing summer urban heat, and our results
suggest that the future burden of temperature-related mortality associated with the
UHI is likely to increase in summer relative to winter.
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