Quantifying operational lifetimes for coal power plants under the Paris goals

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Abstract

A rapid transition away from unabated coal use is essential to fulfilling the Paris climate goals. However, many countries are actively building and operating coal power plants. Here we use plant-level data to specify alternative trajectories for coal technologies in an integrated assessment model. We then quantify cost-effective retirement pathways for global and country-level coal fleets to limit long-term temperature change. We present our results using a decision-relevant metric: the operational lifetime limit. Even if no new plants are built, the lifetimes of existing units are reduced to approximately 35 years in a well-below 2 °C scenario or 20 years in a 1.5 °C scenario. The risk of continued coal expansion, including the near-term growth permitted in some Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), is large. The lifetime limits for both 2 °C and 1.5 °C are reduced by 5 years if plants under construction come online and 10 years if all proposed projects are built.

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RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100

Allison M. Thomson, Katherine V. Calvin, Steven Smith … (2011)

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Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in China at a city level

Yan-Lin Zhang, Fang Cao (2015)

This study presents one of the first long term datasets including a statistical summary of PM2.5 concentrations obtained from one-year monitoring in 190 cities in China. We found only 25 out of 190 cities could meet the National Ambient Air Quality Standards of China, and the population-weighted mean of PM2.5 in Chinese cities are 61 μg/m3, ~3 times as high as global population-weighted mean, highlighting a high health risk. PM2.5 concentrations are generally higher in north than in south regions due to relative large PM emissions and unfavorable meteorological conditions for pollution dispersion. A remarkable seasonal variability of PM2.5 is observed with the highest during the winter and the lowest during the summer. Due to the enhanced contributions from dust particles and open biomass burning, high PM2.5 abundances are also found in the spring (in Northwest and West Central China) and autumn (in East China), respectively. In addition, we found the lowest and highest PM2.5 often occurs in the afternoon and evening hours, respectively, associated with daily variation of the boundary layer depth and anthropogenic emissions. The diurnal distribution of the PM2.5-to-CO ratio consistently displays a pronounced peak during the afternoon periods, reflecting a significant contribution of secondary PM formation.