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      Elevated serum levels of Wisteria floribunda agglutinin-positive human Mac-2 binding protein predict the development of hepatocellular carcinoma in hepatitis C patients

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          Abstract

          The Wisteria floribunda agglutinin-positive human Mac-2-binding protein (WFA +-M2BP) was recently shown to be a liver fibrosis glycobiomarker with a unique fibrosis-related glycoalteration. We evaluated the ability of WFA +-M2BP to predict the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients who were infected with the hepatitis C virus (HCV). A total of 707 patients who had been admitted to our hospital with chronic HCV infection without other potential risk factors were evaluated to determine the ability of WFA +-M2BP to predict the development of HCC; factors evaluated included age, sex, viral load, genotypes, fibrosis stage, aspartate and alanine aminotransferase levels, bilirubin, albumin, platelet count, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), WFA +-M2BP, and the response to interferon (IFN) therapy. Serum WFA +-M2BP levels were significantly increased according to the progression of liver fibrosis stage ( P < 0.001). In each distinctive stage of fibrosis (F0-F1, F2, F3, and F4), the risk of development of HCC was increased according to the elevation of WFA +-M2BP. Multivariate analysis identified age >57 years, F4, AFP >20 ng/mL, WFA +-M2BP ≥4, and WFA +-M2BP 1-4 as well as the response to IFN (no therapy vs. sustained virological response) as independent risk factors for the development of HCC. The time-dependent areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve demonstrated that the WFA +-M2BP assay predicted the development of HCC with higher diagnostic accuracy than AFP. Conclusion: WFA +-M2BP can be applied as a useful surrogate marker for the risk of HCC development, in addition to liver biopsy. (H epatology 2014;60:1563–1570)

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          Management of hepatocellular carcinoma.

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            Time-dependent ROC curves for censored survival data and a diagnostic marker.

            ROC curves are a popular method for displaying sensitivity and specificity of a continuous diagnostic marker, X, for a binary disease variable, D. However, many disease outcomes are time dependent, D(t), and ROC curves that vary as a function of time may be more appropriate. A common example of a time-dependent variable is vital status, where D(t) = 1 if a patient has died prior to time t and zero otherwise. We propose summarizing the discrimination potential of a marker X, measured at baseline (t = 0), by calculating ROC curves for cumulative disease or death incidence by time t, which we denote as ROC(t). A typical complexity with survival data is that observations may be censored. Two ROC curve estimators are proposed that can accommodate censored data. A simple estimator is based on using the Kaplan-Meier estimator for each possible subset X > c. However, this estimator does not guarantee the necessary condition that sensitivity and specificity are monotone in X. An alternative estimator that does guarantee monotonicity is based on a nearest neighbor estimator for the bivariate distribution function of (X, T), where T represents survival time (Akritas, M. J., 1994, Annals of Statistics 22, 1299-1327). We present an example where ROC(t) is used to compare a standard and a modified flow cytometry measurement for predicting survival after detection of breast cancer and an example where the ROC(t) curve displays the impact of modifying eligibility criteria for sample size and power in HIV prevention trials.
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              Natural history of liver fibrosis progression in patients with chronic hepatitis C. The OBSVIRC, METAVIR, CLINIVIR, and DOSVIRC groups.

              Our aim was to assess the natural history of liver fibrosis progression in hepatitis C and the factors associated with this progression. We recruited 2235 patients from the Observatoire de l'Hépatite C (OBSVIRC) population, the Cohorte Hépatite C Pitié-Salpétrière (DOSVIRC) population, and the original METAVIR population. All the patients had a biopsy sample compatible with chronic hepatitis C as assessed by the METAVIR scoring system (grades the stage of fibrosis on a five-point scale, F0 = no fibrosis, F4 = cirrhosis, and histological activity on a four-point scale, A0 = no activity, A3 = severe activity). No patient had received interferon treatment before the liver biopsy sample was obtained. We assessed the effect of nine factors on fibrosis progression: age at biopsy; estimated duration of infection; sex; age at infection; alcohol consumption; hepatitis C virus C (HCV) genotype; HCV viraemia; cause of infection; and histological activity grade. We defined fibrosis progression per year as the ratio between fibrosis stage in METAVIR units and the duration of infection (1 unit = one stage, 4 units = cirrhosis). The median rate of fibrosis progression per year was 0.133 fibrosis unit (95% CI 0.125-0.143), which was similar to the estimates from previous studies (0.146 to 0.154). Three independent factors were associated with an increased rate of fibrosis progression: age at infection older than 40 years, daily alcohol consumption of 50 g or more, and male sex. There was no association between fibrosis progression and HCV genotype. The median estimated duration of infection for progression to cirrhosis was 30 years (28-32), ranging from 13 years in men infected after the age of 40 to 42 years in women who did not drink alcohol and were infected before the age of 40. Without treatment, 377 (33%) patients had an expected median time to cirrhosis of less than 20 years, and 356 (31%) will never progress to cirrhosis or will not progress for at least 50 years. The host factors of ageing, alcohol consumption, and male sex have a stronger association with fibrosis progression than virological factors in HCV infection.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Hepatology
                Hepatology
                hep
                Hepatology (Baltimore, Md.)
                BlackWell Publishing Ltd (Oxford, UK )
                0270-9139
                1527-3350
                November 2014
                02 October 2014
                : 60
                : 5
                : 1563-1570
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Clinical Research Center, National Hospital Organization, Nagasaki Medical Center Ōmura, Japan
                [2 ]Research Center for Medical Glycoscience, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology Tsukuba, Japan
                [3 ]The Research Center for Hepatitis and Immunology, National Center for Global Health and Medicine Ichikawa, Japan
                [4 ]Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Kumamoto University of Medicine Kumamoto Japan
                Author notes
                Address reprint requests to: Hiroshi Yatsuhashi, M.D., Ph.D., Clinical Research Center, National Hospital Organization, Nagasaki Medical Center, 2-1001-1 Kubara, Ōmura, Nagasaki 856-8562, Japan. E-mail: yatsuhashi@ 123456nagasaki-mc.com ; fax: +81 957 54 0292.

                This study was supported, in part, by Health and Labor Sciences Research Grants for Research on Hepatitis from the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare of Japan.

                Article
                10.1002/hep.27305
                4278450
                25042054
                0000929c-1340-407b-91e6-0c0498bbaf75
                © 2014 The Authors. H epatology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

                This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.

                History
                : 27 March 2014
                : 18 June 2014
                : 08 August 2014
                Categories
                Viral Hepatitis

                Gastroenterology & Hepatology
                Gastroenterology & Hepatology

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