The global, regional, and national disease burden of breast cancer attributable to low physical activity from 1990 to 2019: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

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Abstract

Background

To assess the spatiotemporal variation in female breast cancer attributable to low physical activity (LPA) at a global scale from 1990 to 2019, which is essential to promote physical activity, as well as prevent and control breast cancer.

Methods

The number of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and the corresponding age-standardized rates (ASMR and ASDR) of LPA-related breast cancer in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019 were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 to measure the related breast cancer burden by age and region. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to quantify the secular trend in breast cancer burden rates.

Results

From 1990 to 2019, globally, both breast cancer deaths and DALYs attributable to LPA nearly doubled, although the corresponding ASMR and ASDR decreased slightly, with EAPC of -0.46 (95% confidence interval: -0.52, -0.40) and -0.44 (95% confidence interval: -0.49, -0.39), respectively. The LPA-related breast cancer burden varied considerably across the world, with the highest-burden rates in Oceania, Tropical Latin America and Caribbean, and the fastest growth in North Africa and Middle East. The ASMR and ASDR showed a logarithmic association with the Socio-demographic Index, and a temporally upward trend in most of 204 countries regardless of the Socio-demographic Index or the ASMR in 1990.

Conclusions

Despite a decline in LPA-related breast cancer burden achieved in many countries during the last 3 decades like Bermuda, Myanmar, USA and China, an increase still occurred in most of 204 countries and territories, such as Solomon Islands, Equatorial Guinea, Japan and India. The findings can bring greater awareness to the importance of promoting physical activity for the local government to control the attributable breast cancer burden.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12966-022-01283-3.

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Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Theo Vos, Stephen S Lim, Cristiana Abbafati … (2022)

Summary Background In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and development investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

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Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Christopher J L Murray, Aleksandr Y Aravkin, Peng Zheng … (2021)

Summary Background Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease. Methods GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk–outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk–outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk–outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden. Findings The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51–12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9–21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12–9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6–16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253–350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3–13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0–9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10–24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25–49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50–74 years and 75 years and older. Interpretation Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

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Worldwide trends in insufficient physical activity from 2001 to 2016: a pooled analysis of 358 population-based surveys with 1·9 million participants

Regina Guthold, Gretchen Stevens, Leanne Riley … (2018)

Insufficient physical activity is a leading risk factor for non-communicable diseases, and has a negative effect on mental health and quality of life. We describe levels of insufficient physical activity across countries, and estimate global and regional trends.

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All references

Author and article information

Contributors

Xiaolin Yin: yxlin2018@foxmail.com

Tongchao Zhang: zhangtongchao2011@163.com

Yuan Zhang: ebmzhangyuan@yeah.net

Jinyu Man: 18366116420@126.com

Xiaorong Yang:

ORCID: http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9866-3029

yangxiaorong@sdu.edu.cn

Ming Lu:

ORCID: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8685-6322

lvming@sdu.edu.cn

Journal

Journal ID (nlm-ta): Int J Behav Nutr Phys Act

Journal ID (iso-abbrev): Int J Behav Nutr Phys Act

Title: The International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity

Publisher: BioMed Central (London )

ISSN (Electronic): 1479-5868

Publication date (Electronic): 2 April 2022

Publication date PMC-release: 2 April 2022

Publication date Collection: 2022

Volume: 19

Electronic Location Identifier: 42

Affiliations

[1 ]GRID grid.27255.37, ISNI 0000 0004 1761 1174, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, , Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, ; Jinan, 250012 China

[2 ]GRID grid.452402.5, ISNI 0000 0004 1808 3430, Clinical Epidemiology Unit, , Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, ; 107 Wenhuaxi Road, Jinan, 250012 Shandong China

[3 ]GRID grid.27255.37, ISNI 0000 0004 1761 1174, Clinical Research Center of Shandong University, ; Jinan, 250012 China

Author information

Xiaorong Yang http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9866-3029

Ming Lu http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8685-6322

Article

Publisher ID: 1283

DOI: 10.1186/s12966-022-01283-3

PMC ID: 8977046

PubMed ID: 35366913

SO-VID: 0618835f-231c-4a4b-ba37-e35ca3fddac7

License:

Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver ( http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.

History

Date received : 21 September 2021

Date accepted : 29 March 2022

Funding

Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001809, National Natural Science Foundation of China;

Award ID: 81973116

Award ID: 82103912

Award ID: 82173591

Award Recipient : Xiaorong Yang Ming Lu

Funded by: The China Postdoctoral Science Foundation

Award ID: 2021M700080

Award Recipient : Xiaorong Yang

Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100007129, Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province;

Award ID: ZR2020QH302

Award Recipient : Xiaorong Yang

Funded by: National Key Research and Development Program of China

Award ID: 2021YFF1201101

Award Recipient : Ming Lu

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ScienceOpen disciplines: Nutrition & Dietetics

Keywords: physical activity,breast cancer,mortality,disability-adjusted life years,global burden of disease

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ScienceOpen disciplines: Nutrition & Dietetics

Keywords: physical activity, breast cancer, mortality, disability-adjusted life years, global burden of disease

The global, regional, and national disease burden of breast cancer attributable to low physical activity from 1990 to 2019: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

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Most cited references 34

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Worldwide trends in insufficient physical activity from 2001 to 2016: a pooled analysis of 358 population-based surveys with 1·9 million participants

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