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      Tambora 1815 as a test case for high impact volcanic eruptions: Earth system effects

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          Abstract

          The eruption of Tambora (Indonesia) in April 1815 had substantial effects on global climate and led to the ‘Year Without a Summer’ of 1816 in Europe and North America. Although a tragic event—tens of thousands of people lost their lives—the eruption also was an ‘experiment of nature’ from which science has learned until today. The aim of this study is to summarize our current understanding of the Tambora eruption and its effects on climate as expressed in early instrumental observations, climate proxies and geological evidence, climate reconstructions, and model simulations. Progress has been made with respect to our understanding of the eruption process and estimated amount of SO 2 injected into the atmosphere, although large uncertainties still exist with respect to altitude and hemispheric distribution of Tambora aerosols. With respect to climate effects, the global and Northern Hemispheric cooling are well constrained by proxies whereas there is no strong signal in Southern Hemisphere proxies. Newly recovered early instrumental information for Western Europe and parts of North America, regions with particularly strong climate effects, allow Tambora's effect on the weather systems to be addressed. Climate models respond to prescribed Tambora‐like forcing with a strengthening of the wintertime stratospheric polar vortex, global cooling and a slowdown of the water cycle, weakening of the summer monsoon circulations, a strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, and a decrease of atmospheric CO 2 . Combining observations, climate proxies, and model simulations for the case of Tambora, a better understanding of climate processes has emerged. WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:569–589. doi: 10.1002/wcc.407

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            Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Paleoclimate

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          European seasonal and annual temperature variability, trends, and extremes since 1500.

          Multiproxy reconstructions of monthly and seasonal surface temperature fields for Europe back to 1500 show that the late 20th- and early 21st-century European climate is very likely (>95% confidence level) warmer than that of any time during the past 500 years. This agrees with findings for the entire Northern Hemisphere. European winter average temperatures during the period 1500 to 1900 were reduced by approximately 0.5 degrees C (0.25 degrees C for annual mean temperatures) compared to the 20th century. Summer temperatures did not experience systematic century-scale cooling relative to present conditions. The coldest European winter was 1708/1709; 2003 was by far the hottest summer.
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            Long-term aridity changes in the western United States.

            E. R. Cook (2004)
            The western United States is experiencing a severe multiyear drought that is unprecedented in some hydroclimatic records. Using gridded drought reconstructions that cover most of the western United States over the past 1200 years, we show that this drought pales in comparison to an earlier period of elevated aridity and epic drought in AD 900 to 1300, an interval broadly consistent with the Medieval Warm Period. If elevated aridity in the western United States is a natural response to climate warming, then any trend toward warmer temperatures in the future could lead to a serious long-term increase in aridity over western North America.
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              Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years

              Crowley (2000)
              Recent reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperatures and climate forcing over the past 1000 years allow the warming of the 20th century to be placed within a historical context and various mechanisms of climate change to be tested. Comparisons of observations with simulations from an energy balance climate model indicate that as much as 41 to 64% of preanthropogenic (pre-1850) decadal-scale temperature variations was due to changes in solar irradiance and volcanism. Removal of the forced response from reconstructed temperature time series yields residuals that show similar variability to those of control runs of coupled models, thereby lending support to the models' value as estimates of low-frequency variability in the climate system. Removal of all forcing except greenhouse gases from the approximately 1000-year time series results in a residual with a very large late-20th-century warming that closely agrees with the response predicted from greenhouse gas forcing. The combination of a unique level of temperature increase in the late 20th century and improved constraints on the role of natural variability provides further evidence that the greenhouse effect has already established itself above the level of natural variability in the climate system. A 21st-century global warming projection far exceeds the natural variability of the past 1000 years and is greater than the best estimate of global temperature change for the last interglacial.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Change
                Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Change
                10.1002/(ISSN)1757-7799
                WCC
                Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews. Climate Change
                John Wiley & Sons, Inc. (Hoboken, USA )
                1757-7780
                1757-7799
                02 June 2016
                Jul-Aug 2016
                : 7
                : 4 ( doiID: 10.1002/wcc.2016.7.issue-4 )
                : 569-589
                Affiliations
                [ 1 ] Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research University of Bern Bern Switzerland
                [ 2 ] Climate and Environmental Physics University of Bern Bern Switzerland
                [ 3 ] Institute of Geography University of Bern Bern Switzerland
                [ 4 ] Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter UK
                [ 5 ] Environmental Physics Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics ETH Zürich Zürich Switzerland
                [ 6 ] Geography Department Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Cambridge Cambridge UK
                [ 7 ] Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich UK
                [ 8 ] Department of Meteorology Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research, King Abdulaziz University Jeddah Saudi Arabia
                [ 9 ] Department of Geography, Climatology Climate Dynamics and Climate Change Justus Liebig University of Giessen Giessen Germany
                [ 10 ] Department of Environmental Sciences Rutgers University New Brunswick NJ USA
                [ 11 ] Department of Earth and Planetary Science University of California Berkeley CA USA
                [ 12 ] Department of Geology Padjadjaran University Bandung Indonesia
                [ 13 ] Max Planck‐Institute for Meteorology Hamburg Germany
                [ 14 ] Centre for International Development and Environmental Research Justus Liebig University Giessen Giessen Germany
                Author notes
                [*] [* ]Correspondence to: stefan.broennimann@ 123456giub.unibe.ch
                [†]

                These authors contributed equally.

                Article
                WCC407
                10.1002/wcc.407
                6686350
                31423155
                0aa4a03f-b16b-4e83-a946-c09078c24257
                © 2016 The Authors. WIREs Climate Change published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

                This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non‐commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.

                History
                : 01 August 2015
                : 24 March 2016
                : 31 March 2016
                Page count
                Pages: 21
                Funding
                Funded by: Swiss National Science Foundation Sinergia Project FUPSOL2
                Award ID: CRSII2‐147659
                Funded by: Swiss National Science Foundation Project TWIST
                Funded by: BMBF project MIKLIP
                Award ID: FKZ:01LP1130A
                Funded by: SNSF
                Award ID: Ambizione grant PZ00P2_142573
                Funded by: Joint UK DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme
                Award ID: GA01101
                Funded by: US National Science Foundation
                Award ID: AGS‐1430051
                Categories
                Paleoclimate
                Advanced Review
                Advanced Reviews
                Custom metadata
                2.0
                wcc407
                wcc407-hdr-0001
                July/August 2016
                Converter:WILEY_ML3GV2_TO_NLMPMC version:5.6.7 mode:remove_FC converted:05.08.2019

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