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      CAMBIOS CLIMÁTICOS Y ENFERMEDADES INFECCIOSAS: NUEVOS RETOS EPIDEMIOLÓGICOS Translated title: CLIMATE CHANGES AND INFECTIOUS DISEASES: NEW EPIDEMIOLOGICAL CHALLENGES

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          Abstract

          El Niño / Oscilación Sur (ENSO) es el fenómeno mejor conocido que influye en la variabilidad del clima mundial en escalas de tiempo inter anuales. El término El Niño se refiere al fenómeno climático vinculado a un calentamiento periódico de las temperaturas superficiales del mar en la zona central y oriental del Pacífico ecuatorial central (aproximadamente entre la línea internacional y 120 grados de longitud oeste), y se refiere a veces como un episodio cálido del Pacífico. Lo contrario de lo que es La Niña, la fase fría del fenómeno ENSO. Debido al gran tamaño del Océano Pacífico, los cambios en los patrones de temperatura superficial del mar tienen gran influencia en la circulación atmosférica con efectos pronunciados en la precipitación tropical mundial y los patrones de temperatura. Se ha relacionado el ENSO con las anomalías climáticas y el incremento de las enfermedades infecciosas, especialmente las transmitidas por insectos, por lo que su conocimiento puede permitir ofrecer mejores predicciones a largo plazo de epidemias o epizootia.

          Translated abstract

          El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most well-known phenomenon influencing the global climate variability at inter annual time scales. The term El Niño refers to the largescale ocean-atmosphere climate phenomenon linked to a periodic warming in sea surface temperatures across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (between approximately the International Date line and 120 degrees west longitude), and thus represents the warm phase of the ENSO, and is sometimes referred to as a Pacific warm episode. The opposite of which is La Niña, a cold phase of ENSO. Given the large size of the Pacific Ocean, changes in the sea surface temperature patterns and gradients across the basin influence atmospheric circulation with pronounced impacts on global tropical precipitation and temperature patterns. Building evidence of the links between ENSO driven climate anomalies and infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted by insects, the knowlodgment could allow providing improved long range forecasts of an epidemic or epizootic

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          Most cited references28

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          Ecological responses to recent climate change.

          There is now ample evidence of the ecological impacts of recent climate change, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments. The responses of both flora and fauna span an array of ecosystems and organizational hierarchies, from the species to the community levels. Despite continued uncertainty as to community and ecosystem trajectories under global change, our review exposes a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems. Although we are only at an early stage in the projected trends of global warming, ecological responses to recent climate change are already clearly visible.
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            Effects of environmental change on emerging parasitic diseases.

            Ecological disturbances exert an influence on the emergence and proliferation of malaria and zoonotic parasitic diseases, including, Leishmaniasis, cryptosporidiosis, giardiasis, trypanosomiasis, schistosomiasis, filariasis, onchocerciasis, and loiasis. Each environmental change, whether occurring as a natural phenomenon or through human intervention, changes the ecological balance and context within which disease hosts or vectors and parasites breed, develop, and transmit disease. Each species occupies a particular ecological niche and vector species sub-populations are distinct behaviourally and genetically as they adapt to man-made environments. Most zoonotic parasites display three distinct life cycles: sylvatic, zoonotic, and anthroponotic. In adapting to changed environmental conditions, including reduced non-human population and increased human population, some vectors display conversion from a primarily zoophyllic to primarily anthrophyllic orientation. Deforestation and ensuing changes in landuse, human settlement, commercial development, road construction, water control systems (dams, canals, irrigation systems, reservoirs), and climate, singly, and in combination have been accompanied by global increases in morbidity and mortality from emergent parasitic disease. The replacement of forests with crop farming, ranching, and raising small animals can create supportive habitats for parasites and their host vectors. When the land use of deforested areas changes, the pattern of human settlement is altered and habitat fragmentation may provide opportunities for exchange and transmission of parasites to the heretofore uninfected humans. Construction of water control projects can lead to shifts in such vector populations as snails and mosquitoes and their parasites. Construction of roads in previously inaccessible forested areas can lead to erosion, and stagnant ponds by blocking the flow of streams when the water rises during the rainy season. The combined effects of environmentally detrimental changes in local land use and alterations in global climate disrupt the natural ecosystem and can increase the risk of transmission of parasitic diseases to the human population.
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              Potential effect of population and climate changes on global distribution of dengue fever: an empirical model.

              Existing theoretical models of the potential effects of climate change on vector-borne diseases do not account for social factors such as population increase, or interactions between climate variables. Our aim was to investigate the potential effects of global climate change on human health, and in particular, on the transmission of vector-borne diseases. We modelled the reported global distribution of dengue fever on the basis of vapour pressure, which is a measure of humidity. We assessed changes in the geographical limits of dengue fever transmission, and in the number of people at risk of dengue by incorporating future climate change and human population projections into our model. We showed that the current geographical limits of dengue fever transmission can be modelled with 89% accuracy on the basis of long-term average vapour pressure. In 1990, almost 30% of the world population, 1.5 billion people, lived in regions where the estimated risk of dengue transmission was greater than 50%. With population and climate change projections for 2085, we estimate that about 5-6 billion people (50-60% of the projected global population) would be at risk of dengue transmission, compared with 3.5 billion people, or 35% of the population, if climate change did not happen. We conclude that climate change is likely to increase the area of land with a climate suitable for dengue fever transmission, and that if no other contributing factors were to change, a large proportion of the human population would then be put at risk.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                mvz
                Revista MVZ Córdoba
                Rev.MVZ Cordoba
                Universidad de Córdoba - Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria y Zootecnia. (Córdoba, Montería, Colombia )
                0122-0268
                1909-0544
                September 2009
                : 14
                : 3
                : 1876-1885
                Affiliations
                [02] Montería orgnameUniversidad de Córdoba orgdiv1Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria y Zootecnia orgdiv2Departamento de Ciencias Pecuarias
                [01] Villavicencio orgnameUniversidad Cooperativa de Colombia orgdiv1Facultad de Medicina
                Article
                S0122-02682009000300012 S0122-0268(09)01400312
                0b16a14e-0a98-459f-9a96-754556a3f283

                This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

                History
                : 30 July 2009
                : 17 December 2008
                Page count
                Figures: 0, Tables: 0, Equations: 0, References: 28, Pages: 10
                Product

                SciELO Colombia

                Self URI: Texto completo solamente en formato PDF (ES)
                Categories
                Revisión de literatura

                El Niño,climate change,infectious diseases,cambio climático,enfermedades infecciosas

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