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      Sensitivity of APSIM/ORYZA model due to estimation errors in solar radiation Translated title: Análise de sensibilidade do modelo APSIM/ORYZA na estimava de erros na radiação solar

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          Abstract

          Crop models are ideally suited to quantify existing climatic risks. However, they require historic climate data as input. While daily temperature and rainfall data are often available, the lack of observed solar radiation (Rs) data severely limits site-specific crop modelling. The objective of this study was to estimate Rs based on air temperature solar radiation models and to quantify the propagation of errors in simulated radiation on several APSIM/ORYZA crop model seasonal outputs, yield, biomass, leaf area (LAI) and total accumulated solar radiation (SRA) during the crop cycle. The accuracy of the 5 models for estimated daily solar radiation was similar, and it was not substantially different among sites. For water limited environments (no irrigation), crop model outputs yield, biomass and LAI was not sensitive for the uncertainties in radiation models studied here.

          Translated abstract

          Modelos de simulação de culturas são importantes para quantificar riscos climáticos. Esses modelos necessitam de dados climáticos como dados de entrada. Entretanto, dados diários de precipitação pluvial e temperatura são facilmente encontrados, enquanto dados de radiação solar (Rs) limitam-se à aplicação de modelos de simulação de culturas. O objetivo deste estudo foi estimar a Rs utilizando cinco modelos de estimativa de radiação solar com base na temperatura do ar e quantificar a propagação de erros na radiação simulada na produtividade, biomassa, área foliar e radiação solar acumulada durante o ciclo da cultura do arroz de terras altas simulados pelo modelo de simulação ORYZA/APSIM. A acurácia dos cinco modelos de estimativa da radiação solar foi similar e não foi diferente entre os diferentes locais. Para ambientes que ocorre estresse hídrico, as saídas do modelo ORYZA/APSIM produtividade, biomassa e índice de área foliar não foram sensíveis às incertezas provenientes da radiação solar estimadas neste estudo.

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          Most cited references 33

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          On the validation of model

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            On the validation of models

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              Estimation of solar radiation for use in crop modelling

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: ND
                Role: ND
                Role: ND
                Role: ND
                Journal
                brag
                Bragantia
                Bragantia
                Instituto Agronômico de Campinas (Campinas )
                1678-4499
                2012
                : 71
                : 4
                : 572-582
                Affiliations
                [1 ] Embrapa Brazil
                [2 ] Wageningen University Netherlands
                [3 ] SIMEHGO Brasil
                [4 ] Embrapa Brazil
                Article
                S0006-87052012000400016
                10.1590/S0006-87052012000400016
                Product
                Product Information: website
                Categories
                AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

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