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      Cenários de mudanças climáticas e seus impactos na produção leiteira em estados nordestinos Translated title: Climate change scenarios and their impacts on milk production in northeastern states of Brazil

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          Abstract

          A pecuária leiteira é uma atividade de grande importância no nordeste brasileiro, podendo ser afetada de forma direta e indireta, caso as atuais previsões climáticas sejam confirmadas até o final do século. O objetivo deste trabalho foi estimar os impactos das mudanças climáticas sobre a produção leiteira nos estados de Alagoas, Bahia e Sergipe. Os valores do índice de temperatura e umidade (ITU), do declínio da produção de leite (DPL) e da redução do consumo alimentar (RCA) de vacas leiteiras foram calculados para os cenários climáticos B1 e A1F1 do IPCC. Utilizou-se um modelo multiplicativo para estimar o efeito das alterações de temperatura sobre os valores normais da umidade relativa do ar. Com base em ambos os cenários do IPCC, as regiões produtoras, situadas no norte e litoral do estado da Bahia e áreas litorâneas dos estados de Alagoas e Sergipe, serão afetadas expressivamente em decorrência do aumento do estresse térmico, com reduções marcantes na produção de leite e no consumo alimentar, especialmente de animais com alto potencial genético de produção. Este cenário pode afetar as atuais regiões produtoras dos estados nordestinos, de forma que a exploração leiteira seja limitada aos animais com baixo desempenho produtivo.

          Translated abstract

          Milk production is an activity of great importance in the Brazilian context, and it may be directly and indirectly affected if current climate predictions are confirmed until the end of this century. The objective of this work was to estimate climate change impacts on milk production in the states of Alagoas, Bahia and Sergipe. Values of the temperature humidity index (THI), decline in milk production (DMP) and decline in feed intake (DFI) of dairy cows were calculated for the B1 and A1F1 climate scenarios, described by the IPCC. A multiplicative model was used to estimate the effect of temperature change on the normal values of relative humidity. Based on both IPCC scenarios, production regions, located in the north and coast of the Bahia state and coastal areas of the states of Alagoas and Sergipe, will be adversely affected due to thermal stress, with profound reduction in milk production and feed intake, especially in case of animals with high genetic production potential. This scenario may affect the current producing in the northeastern states of Brazil, in such a way that milk production be limited only to animals with low productive performance.

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          Most cited references 41

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            Effects of heat-stress on production in dairy cattle.

             Bruce West (2003)
            The southeastern United States is characterized as humid subtropical and is subject to extended periods of high ambient temperature and relative humidity. Because the primary nonevaporative means of cooling for the cow (radiation, conduction, convection) become less effective with rising ambient temperature, the cow becomes increasingly reliant upon evaporative cooling in the form of sweating and panting. High relative humidity compromises evaporative cooling, so that under hot, humid conditions common to the Southeast in summer the dairy cow cannot dissipate sufficient body heat to prevent a rise in body temperature. Increasing air temperature, temperature-humidity index and rising rectal temperature above critical thresholds are related to decreased dry matter intake (DMI) and milk yield and to reduced efficiency of milk yield. Modifications including shade, barns which enhance passive ventilation, and the addition of fans and sprinklers increase body heat loss, lowering body temperature and improving DMI. New technologies including tunnel ventilation are being investigated to determine if they offer cooling advantages. Genetic selection for heat tolerance may be possible, but continued selection for greater performance in the absence of consideration for heat tolerance will result in greater susceptibility to heat stress. The nutritional needs of the cow change during heat stress, and ration reformulation to account for decreased DMI, the need to increase nutrient density, changing nutrient requirements, avoiding nutrient excesses and maintenance of normal rumen function is necessary. Maintaining cow performance in hot, humid climatic conditions in the future will likely require improved cooling capability, continued advances in nutritional formulation, and the need for genetic advancement which includes selection for heat tolerance or the identification of genetic traits which enhance heat tolerance.
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              The Discomfort Index

               E. Thom (1959)
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                Author and article information

                Affiliations
                [1 ] Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco Brazil
                [2 ] Embrapa Semiárido Brazil
                [3 ] Universidade Federal de Viçosa Brazil
                [4 ] Universidade Federal do Vale do São Francisco Brazil
                Contributors
                Role: ND
                Role: ND
                Role: ND
                Role: ND
                Role: ND
                Role: ND
                Journal
                rbeaa
                Revista Brasileira de Engenharia Agrícola e Ambiental
                Rev. bras. eng. agríc. ambient.
                Departamento de Engenharia Agrícola - UFCG (Campina Grande )
                1807-1929
                2010
                : 14
                : 8
                : 863-870
                S1415-43662010000800011 10.1590/S1415-43662010000800011

                http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

                Product
                Product Information: SciELO Brazil
                Categories
                AGRICULTURAL ENGINEERING
                ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

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