The Impacts of Heatwaves on Mortality Differ with Different Study Periods: A Multi-City Time Series Investigation

There is no author summary for this article yet. Authors can add summaries to their articles on ScienceOpen to make them more accessible to a non-specialist audience.

Abstract

Background

Different locations and study periods were used in the assessment of the relationships between heatwaves and mortality. However, little is known about the comparability and consistency of the previous effect estimates in the literature. This study assessed the heatwave—mortality relationship using different study periods in the three largest Australian cities (Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney).

Methods

Daily data on climatic variables and mortality for the three cities were obtained from relevant government agencies between 1988 and 2011. A consistent definition of heatwaves was used for these cities. Poisson generalised additive model was fitted to assess the impact of heatwaves on mortality.

Results

Non-accidental and circulatory mortality significantly increased during heatwaves across the three cities even with different heatwave definitions and study periods. Using the summer data resulted in the largest increase in effect estimates compared to those using the warm season or the whole year data.

Conclusion

The findings may have implications for developing standard approaches to evaluating the heatwave-mortality relationship and advancing heat health warning systems. It also provides an impetus to methodological advance for assessing climate change-related health consequences.

Related collections

Most cited references 14

Record: found
Abstract: found
Article: found

Is Open Access

Heat Waves in the United States: Mortality Risk during Heat Waves and Effect Modification by Heat Wave Characteristics in 43 U.S. Communities

G Anderson, Michelle L. Bell (2010)

Background Devastating health effects from recent heat waves, and projected increases in frequency, duration, and severity of heat waves from climate change, highlight the importance of understanding health consequences of heat waves. Objectives We analyzed mortality risk for heat waves in 43 U.S. cities (1987–2005) and investigated how effects relate to heat waves’ intensity, duration, or timing in season. Methods Heat waves were defined as ≥ 2 days with temperature ≥ 95th percentile for the community for 1 May through 30 September. Heat waves were characterized by their intensity, duration, and timing in season. Within each community, we estimated mortality risk during each heat wave compared with non-heat wave days, controlling for potential confounders. We combined individual heat wave effect estimates using Bayesian hierarchical modeling to generate overall effects at the community, regional, and national levels. We estimated how heat wave mortality effects were modified by heat wave characteristics (intensity, duration, timing in season). Results Nationally, mortality increased 3.74% [95% posterior interval (PI), 2.29–5.22%] during heat waves compared with non-heat wave days. Heat wave mortality risk increased 2.49% for every 1°F increase in heat wave intensity and 0.38% for every 1-day increase in heat wave duration. Mortality increased 5.04% (95% PI, 3.06–7.06%) during the first heat wave of the summer versus 2.65% (95% PI, 1.14–4.18%) during later heat waves, compared with non-heat wave days. Heat wave mortality impacts and effect modification by heat wave characteristics were more pronounced in the Northeast and Midwest compared with the South. Conclusions We found higher mortality risk from heat waves that were more intense or longer, or those occurring earlier in summer. These findings have implications for decision makers and researchers estimating health effects from climate change.

0 comments Cited 354 times – based on 0 reviews      Review now

Bookmark

Record: found
Abstract: found
Article: not found

Modifiers of the temperature and mortality association in seven US cities.

M O'Neill (2003)

This paper examines effect modification of heat- and cold-related mortality in seven US cities in 1986-1993. City-specific Poisson regression analyses of daily noninjury mortality were fit with predictors of mean daily apparent temperature (a construct reflecting physiologic effects of temperature and humidity), time, barometric pressure, day of the week, and particulate matter less than 10 micro m in aerodynamic diameter. Percentage change in mortality was calculated at 29 degrees C apparent temperature (lag 0) and at -5 degrees C (mean of lags 1, 2, and 3) relative to 15 degrees C. Separate models were fit to death counts stratified by age, race, gender, education, and place of death. Effect estimates were combined across cities, treating city as a random effect. Deaths among Blacks compared with Whites, deaths among the less educated, and deaths outside a hospital were more strongly associated with hot and cold temperatures, but gender made no difference. Stronger cold associations were found for those less than age 65 years, but heat effects did not vary by age. The strongest effect modifier was place of death for heat, with out-of-hospital effects more than five times greater than in-hospital deaths, supporting the biologic plausibility of the associations. Place of death, race, and educational attainment indicate vulnerability to temperature-related mortality, reflecting inequities in health impacts related to climate change.

0 comments Cited 161 times – based on 0 reviews      Review now

Bookmark

Record: found
Abstract: found
Article: not found

Has the impact of heat waves on mortality changed in France since the European heat wave of summer 2003? A study of the 2006 heat wave.

A Fouillet, G. Rey, V. Wagner … (2008)

In July 2006, a lasting and severe heat wave occurred in Western Europe. Since the 2003 heat wave, several preventive measures and an alert system aiming at reducing the risks related to high temperatures have been set up in France by the health authorities and institutions. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of those measures, the observed excess mortality during the 2006 heat wave was compared to the expected excess mortality. A Poisson regression model relating the daily fluctuations in summer temperature and mortality in France from 1975 to 2003 was used to estimate the daily expected number of deaths over the period 2004-2006 as a function of the observed temperatures. During the 2006 heat wave (from 11 to 28 July), about 2065 excess deaths occurred in France. Considering the observed temperatures and with the hypothesis that heat-related mortality had not changed since 2003, 6452 excess deaths were predicted for the period. The observed mortality during the 2006 heat wave was thus markedly less than the expected mortality (approximately 4400 less deaths). The excess mortality during the 2006 heat wave, which was markedly lower than that predicted by the model, may be interpreted as a decrease in the population's vulnerability to heat, together with, since 2003, increased awareness of the risk related to extreme temperatures, preventive measures and the set-up of the warning system.

0 comments Cited 150 times – based on 0 reviews      Review now

Bookmark

All references

Author and article information

Contributors

Jeffrey Shaman: Role: Editor

Journal

Journal ID (nlm-ta): PLoS One

Journal ID (iso-abbrev): PLoS ONE

Journal ID (publisher-id): plos

Journal ID (pmc): plosone

Title: PLoS ONE

Publisher: Public Library of Science (San Francisco, CA USA )

ISSN (Electronic): 1932-6203

Publication date (Electronic): 28 July 2015

Publication date Collection: 2015

Volume: 10

Issue: 7

Electronic Location Identifier: e0134233

Affiliations

[1 ]School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia

[2 ]School of Population Health, Faculty of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia

[3 ]School of Public Health, Tropical Medicine and Rehabilitation Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia

[4 ]School of Clinical Sciences, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia

[5 ]Ecosystem Sciences, CSIRO, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

[6 ]Climate Adaptation and Sustainable Development, CSIRO, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Columbia University, UNITED STATES

Author notes

Competing Interests: The authors have read the journal's policy and the authors of this manuscript have the following competing interests: This study was partly funded by Horticulture Australia Limited using the Nursery Industry Levy (Project # NY 11013). There are no patents, products in development or marketed products to declare. This does not alter the authors' adherence to all the PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials.

Conceived and designed the experiments: ST XYW. Performed the experiments: XYW YG. Analyzed the data: XYW YG. Contributed reagents/materials/analysis tools: XYW YG. Wrote the paper: ST XYW. Contributed to the manuscript revision: YG GF PA VT DC XW.

* E-mail: s.tong@ 123456qut.edu.au

Article

Publisher ID: PONE-D-15-12477

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0134233

PMC ID: 4517756

PubMed ID: 26217945

SO-VID: 10713f4e-886e-4c06-9512-0bf3cb32fce2

License:

This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited

History

Date received : 23 March 2015

Date accepted : 6 July 2015

Page count

Figures: 0, Tables: 5, Pages: 11

Funding

This study was partly funded by the Australian Research Council (LP882699), Horticulture Australia Limited using the Nursery Industry Levy (Project # NY 11013) and CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship, the Queensland Department of Environment and Resources Management, Department of Community Safety, Queensland Health and the Environmental Protection Agency. ST was supported by a NHMRC research fellowship (#553043). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

Custom metadata

Data Availability Data cannot be made publicly available due to ethical restrictions. Meteorological data were acquired from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/. Mortality data were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics http://www.abs.gov.au/.

The Impacts of Heatwaves on Mortality Differ with Different Study Periods: A Multi-City Time Series Investigation

Read this article at

Abstract

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Related collections

Climate Change: Open Access

Most cited references 14

Heat Waves in the United States: Mortality Risk during Heat Waves and Effect Modification by Heat Wave Characteristics in 43 U.S. Communities

Modifiers of the temperature and mortality association in seven US cities.

Has the impact of heat waves on mortality changed in France since the European heat wave of summer 2003? A study of the 2006 heat wave.

Author and article information

Contributors

Journal

Affiliations

Author notes

Article

History

Page count

Funding

Categories

Custom metadata

Comments

Comment on this article

Similar content 660

Cited by 14

Most referenced authors 191