Impact of tax increases on illicit cigarette trade in Mongolia

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Abstract

Background

The Mongolian government increased import tobacco tax by 30% in May 2017 and excise tobacco tax by 10% in January 2018. To assess the impact of these tax increases on illicit cigarette trade, we estimate illicit trade before and after tax increases.

Methods

Discarded cigarette packs were collected in the capital city and in two provinces near China, the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan. Tax increases occurred between all three rounds (April 2017, August/September 2017, May/June 2018). Cigarette packs are identified as illicit if there is evidence that tax was not paid. This is deduced from the absence of the Mongolian excise tax stamp, or the absence of traces of a tax stamp (glue residue). Data are weighted to represent the areas sampled.

Results

In round 1, 15.4% (95% CI 14.6% to 16.2%) of the 7494 collected packs were illicit. This estimate decreased to 13.6% (95% CI 12.7% to 14.5%) in round 2 (5852 collected packs) and to 6.3% (95% CI 5.7% to 6.9%) in round 3 (6258 collected packs). Illicit cigarettes originated primarily from the Republic of Korea and Ukraine, but some were manufactured in Mongolia. While the majority of illicit products are supplied by global companies (Korea Tobacco & Ginseng, Imperial Tobacco and Philip Morris Kazakhstan), one local company, Mongol Tobacco SO, is also implicated.

Conclusions

The share of illicit cigarettes declined between rounds 1 and 2 despite the import tax increase, and this trend continued in round 3 despite the excise tax increase.

Related collections

Most cited references 2

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The impact of eliminating the global illicit cigarette trade on health and revenue.

Martin Raw, John Merriman, Luk Joossens … (2010)

The purpose of this study was to update global estimates of the illicit cigarette trade, based on recent data, and estimate how many lives could be saved by eliminating it and how much revenue governments would gain. Our estimates of illicit market share are based on formal and informal sources. Our method for estimating the effect of eliminating the illicit trade on tobacco related deaths is based on West et al. with some minor modifications, and involves calculating the size of the illicit cigarette trade; the effect of eliminating it on the price of cigarettes and thus on consumption; the revenue governments are losing because of it; and the number of tobacco-related premature deaths that would be avoided if this illicit trade were eliminated. According to available estimates, the size of the illicit trade varies between countries from 1% to about 40-50% of the market, 11.6% globally, 16.8% in low-income and 9.8% in high-income countries. The total lost revenue is about $40.5 billion a year. If this illicit trade were eliminated governments would gain at least $31.3 billion a year, and from 2030 onwards more than 164,000 premature deaths a year would be avoided, the vast majority in middle- and low-income countries. The burden of deaths and lost revenue caused by the illicit cigarette trade falls disproportionately on low- and middle-income countries. Eliminating this trade would avoid millions of premature deaths, and recover billions of dollars for governments.