FOLFIRI plus cetuximab versus FOLFIRI plus bevacizumab for metastatic colorectal cancer (FIRE-3): a post-hoc analysis of tumour dynamics in the final RAS wild-type subgroup of this randomised open-label phase 3 trial.

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Abstract

FIRE-3 compared first-line 5-fluorouracil, leucovorin, and irinotecan (FOLFIRI) plus cetuximab with FOLFIRI plus bevacizumab in patients with KRAS exon 2 wild-type metastatic colorectal cancer. The same study also reported an exploratory analysis of a subgroup of patients with tumours that were wild-type at other RAS genes (KRAS and NRAS exons 2-4). We report here efficacy results for the FIRE-3 final RAS (KRAS/NRAS, exons 2-4) wild-type subgroup. Moreover, new metrics of tumour dynamics were explored during a centralised radiological review to investigate how FOLFIRI plus cetuximab conferred overall survival benefit in the absence of differences in investigator-assessed objective responses and progression-free survival.

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Most cited references 14

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PEAK: a randomized, multicenter phase II study of panitumumab plus modified fluorouracil, leucovorin, and oxaliplatin (mFOLFOX6) or bevacizumab plus mFOLFOX6 in patients with previously untreated, unresectable, wild-type KRAS exon 2 metastatic colorectal cancer.

Lee S Schwartzberg, Fernando Rivera, Meinolf Karthaus … (2014)

To evaluate panitumumab plus modified fluorouracil, leucovorin, and oxaliplatin (mFOLFOX6) or bevacizumab plus mFOLFOX6 in patients with previously untreated wild-type (WT) KRAS exon 2 (codons 12 and 13) metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). A prespecified secondary objective was to assess treatment effects in an extended RAS analysis that included exons 2, 3, and 4 of KRAS and NRAS.

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Model-based prediction of phase III overall survival in colorectal cancer on the basis of phase II tumor dynamics.

Jan Fagerberg, Laurent Claret, Pascal Girard … (2009)

We developed a drug-disease simulation model to predict antitumor response and overall survival in phase III studies from longitudinal tumor size data in phase II trials. We developed a longitudinal exposure-response tumor-growth inhibition (TGI) model of drug effect (and resistance) using phase II data of capecitabine (n = 34) and historical phase III data of fluorouracil (FU; n = 252) in colorectal cancer (CRC); and we developed a parametric survival model that related change in tumor size and patient characteristics to survival time using historical phase III data (n = 245). The models were validated in simulation of antitumor response and survival in an independent phase III study (n = 1,000 replicates) of capecitabine versus FU in CRC. The TGI model provided a good fit of longitudinal tumor size data. A lognormal distribution best described the survival time, and baseline tumor size and change in tumor size from baseline at week 7 were predictors (P < .00001). Predicted change of tumor size and survival time distributions in the phase III study for both capecitabine and FU were consistent with observed values, for example, 431 days (90% prediction interval, 362 to 514 days) versus 401 days observed for survival in the capecitabine arm. A modest survival improvement of 39 days (90% prediction interval, -21 to 110 days) versus 35 days observed was predicted for capecitabine. The modeling framework successfully predicted survival in a phase III trial on the basis of capecitabine phase II data in CRC. It is a useful tool to support end-of-phase II decisions and design of phase III studies.

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Early tumour shrinkage (ETS) and depth of response (DpR) in the treatment of patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC).

Volker Heinemann, Sebastian Stintzing, Dominik Modest … (2015)

Response evaluation criteria in solid tumours (RECIST) are used to define degrees of response to anti-tumour agents. In retrospective analyses, early tumour shrinkage (ETS) has been investigated as an alternative early-on-treatment predictor of treatment efficacy with regard to progression-free and overall survival. While cut-off based analysis of ETS facilitates the categorisation of patients into responders and non-responders after a defined period of treatment, depth of response (DpR) serves as a continuous measure, which defines the nadir of tumour response.