Trends in maternal and neonatal mortality in South Africa: a systematic review

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Abstract

Background

Measuring and monitoring progress towards Millennium Development Goals (MDG) 4 and 5 required valid and reliable estimates of maternal and child mortality. In South Africa, there are conflicting reports on the estimates of maternal and neonatal mortality, derived from both direct and indirect estimation techniques. This study aimed to systematically review the estimates made of maternal and neonatal mortality in the period from 1990 to 2015 in South Africa and determine trends over this period.

Methods

Nationally-representative studies reporting on maternal and neonatal mortality in South Africa were included for synthesis. Literature search for eligible studies was conducted in five electronic databases: Medline, Africa-Wide Information, Scopus, Web of Science and CINAHL. Searches were restricted to articles written in English and presenting data covering the period between 1990 and 2015. Reference lists of retrieved articles were screened for additional publications, and grey literature was searched for relevant documents for the review. Three independent reviewers were involved in study selection, data extractions and achieving consensus.

Results

In total, 969 studies were retrieved and 670 screened for eligibility yielding 25 studies reporting data on maternal mortality and 14 studies on neonatal mortality. Most of the studies had a low risk of bias. Estimates from the institutional reporting differed from the international metrics with wide uncertainty/confidence intervals. Moreover, modelled estimates were widely divergent from estimates obtained through empirical methods. In the last two decades, both maternal and neonatal mortality appear to have increased up to 2009, followed by a decrease, more pronounced in the care of maternal mortality.

Conclusion

Estimates from both global metrics and institutional reporting, although widely divergent, indicate South Africa has not achieved MDG 4a and 5a goals but made a significant progress in reducing maternal and neonatal mortality. To obtain more accurate estimates, there is a need for applying additional estimation techniques which utilise available multiple data sources to correct for underreporting of these outcomes, perhaps the capture-recapture method.

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PROSPERO CRD42016042769

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The online version of this article (10.1186/s13643-019-0991-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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Most cited references 27

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Global, regional, and national levels and causes of maternal mortality during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Nicholas J. Kassebaum, Amelia Bertozzi-Villa, Megan S Coggeshall … (2014)

The fifth Millennium Development Goal (MDG 5) established the goal of a 75% reduction in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR; number of maternal deaths per 100,000 livebirths) between 1990 and 2015. We aimed to measure levels and track trends in maternal mortality, the key causes contributing to maternal death, and timing of maternal death with respect to delivery. We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to analyse a database of data for 7065 site-years and estimate the number of maternal deaths from all causes in 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. We estimated the number of pregnancy-related deaths caused by HIV on the basis of a systematic review of the relative risk of dying during pregnancy for HIV-positive women compared with HIV-negative women. We also estimated the fraction of these deaths aggravated by pregnancy on the basis of a systematic review. To estimate the numbers of maternal deaths due to nine different causes, we identified 61 sources from a systematic review and 943 site-years of vital registration data. We also did a systematic review of reports about the timing of maternal death, identifying 142 sources to use in our analysis. We developed estimates for each country for 1990-2013 using Bayesian meta-regression. We estimated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all values. 292,982 (95% UI 261,017-327,792) maternal deaths occurred in 2013, compared with 376,034 (343,483-407,574) in 1990. The global annual rate of change in the MMR was -0·3% (-1·1 to 0·6) from 1990 to 2003, and -2·7% (-3·9 to -1·5) from 2003 to 2013, with evidence of continued acceleration. MMRs reduced consistently in south, east, and southeast Asia between 1990 and 2013, but maternal deaths increased in much of sub-Saharan Africa during the 1990s. 2070 (1290-2866) maternal deaths were related to HIV in 2013, 0·4% (0·2-0·6) of the global total. MMR was highest in the oldest age groups in both 1990 and 2013. In 2013, most deaths occurred intrapartum or postpartum. Causes varied by region and between 1990 and 2013. We recorded substantial variation in the MMR by country in 2013, from 956·8 (685·1-1262·8) in South Sudan to 2·4 (1·6-3·6) in Iceland. Global rates of change suggest that only 16 countries will achieve the MDG 5 target by 2015. Accelerated reductions since the Millennium Declaration in 2000 coincide with increased development assistance for maternal, newborn, and child health. Setting of targets and associated interventions for after 2015 will need careful consideration of regions that are making slow progress, such as west and central Africa. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Neonatal, postneonatal, childhood, and under-5 mortality for 187 countries, 1970-2010: a systematic analysis of progress towards Millennium Development Goal 4.

Julie Knoll Rajaratnam, Jake R. Marcus, Abraham Flaxman … (2010)

Previous assessments have highlighted that less than a quarter of countries are on track to achieve Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4), which calls for a two-thirds reduction in mortality in children younger than 5 years between 1990 and 2015. In view of policy initiatives and investments made since 2000, it is important to see if there is acceleration towards the MDG 4 target. We assessed levels and trends in child mortality for 187 countries from 1970 to 2010. We compiled a database of 16 174 measurements of mortality in children younger than 5 years for 187 countries from 1970 to 2009, by use of data from all available sources, including vital registration systems, summary birth histories in censuses and surveys, and complete birth histories. We used Gaussian process regression to generate estimates of the probability of death between birth and age 5 years. This is the first study that uses Gaussian process regression to estimate child mortality, and this technique has better out-of-sample predictive validity than do previous methods and captures uncertainty caused by sampling and non-sampling error across data types. Neonatal, postneonatal, and childhood mortality was estimated from mortality in children younger than 5 years by use of the 1760 measurements from vital registration systems and complete birth histories that contained specific information about neonatal and postneonatal mortality. Worldwide mortality in children younger than 5 years has dropped from 11.9 million deaths in 1990 to 7.7 million deaths in 2010, consisting of 3.1 million neonatal deaths, 2.3 million postneonatal deaths, and 2.3 million childhood deaths (deaths in children aged 1-4 years). 33.0% of deaths in children younger than 5 years occur in south Asia and 49.6% occur in sub-Saharan Africa, with less than 1% of deaths occurring in high-income countries. Across 21 regions of the world, rates of neonatal, postneonatal, and childhood mortality are declining. The global decline from 1990 to 2010 is 2.1% per year for neonatal mortality, 2.3% for postneonatal mortality, and 2.2% for childhood mortality. In 13 regions of the world, including all regions in sub-Saharan Africa, there is evidence of accelerating declines from 2000 to 2010 compared with 1990 to 2000. Within sub-Saharan Africa, rates of decline have increased by more than 1% in Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Congo, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Swaziland, and The Gambia. Robust measurement of mortality in children younger than 5 years shows that accelerating declines are occurring in several low-income countries. These positive developments deserve attention and might need enhanced policy attention and resources. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Saving the lives of South Africa's mothers, babies, and children: can the health system deliver?

Mickey Chopra, Emmanuelle Daviaud, Robert Pattinson … (2009)

South Africa is one of only 12 countries in which mortality rates for children have increased since the baseline for the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in 1990. Continuing poverty and the HIV/AIDS epidemic are important factors. Additionally, suboptimum implementation of high-impact interventions limits programme effectiveness; between a quarter and half of maternal, neonatal, and child deaths in national audits have an avoidable health-system factor contributing to the death. Using the LiST model, we estimate that 11,500 infants' lives could be saved by effective implementation of basic neonatal care at 95% coverage. Similar coverage of dual-therapy prevention of mother-to-child transmission with appropriate feeding choices could save 37,200 children's lives in South Africa per year in 2015 compared with 2008. These interventions would also avert many maternal deaths and stillbirths. The total cost of such a target package is US$1.5 billion per year, 24% of the public-sector health expenditure; the incremental cost is $220 million per year. Such progress would put South Africa squarely on track to meet MDG 4 and probably also MDG 5. The costs are affordable and the key gap is leadership and effective implementation at every level of the health system, including national and local accountability for service provision.

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Author and article information

Contributors

Damian J. Damian:

ORCID: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2359-8768

dmndam001@myuct.ac.za

Bernard Njau: njxber001@myuct.ac.za

Ester Lisasi: lssest001@myuct.ac.za

Sia E. Msuya: siamsuya@hotmail.com

Andrew Boulle: andrew.boulle@uct.ac.za

Journal

Journal ID (nlm-ta): Syst Rev

Journal ID (iso-abbrev): Syst Rev

Title: Systematic Reviews

Publisher: BioMed Central (London )

ISSN (Electronic): 2046-4053

Publication date (Electronic): 27 March 2019

Publication date PMC-release: 27 March 2019

Publication date Collection: 2019

Volume: 8

Electronic Location Identifier: 76

Affiliations

[1 ]ISNI 0000 0004 1937 1151, GRID grid.7836.a, School of Public Health and Family Medicine, , University of Cape Town, ; Cape Town, South Africa

[2 ]ISNI 0000 0004 0648 072X, GRID grid.415218.b, Institute of Public Health, , Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Centre, ; Moshi, Tanzania

Author information

Damian J. Damian http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2359-8768

Article

Publisher ID: 991

DOI: 10.1186/s13643-019-0991-y

PMC ID: 6436230

PubMed ID: 30917874

SO-VID: 1f59b1e8-3dd6-42e4-b915-d89fac7f99aa

License:

Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver ( http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.

History

Date received : 20 March 2018

Date accepted : 15 March 2019

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ScienceOpen disciplines: Public health

Keywords: maternal mortality,neonatal mortality,millennium development goals,south africa

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ScienceOpen disciplines: Public health

Keywords: maternal mortality, neonatal mortality, millennium development goals, south africa

Trends in maternal and neonatal mortality in South Africa: a systematic review

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Most cited references 27

Global, regional, and national levels and causes of maternal mortality during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Neonatal, postneonatal, childhood, and under-5 mortality for 187 countries, 1970-2010: a systematic analysis of progress towards Millennium Development Goal 4.

Saving the lives of South Africa's mothers, babies, and children: can the health system deliver?

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