Natural history of dysplasia of the uterine cervix.

A historical cohort of Toronto (Ontario, Canada) women whose Pap smear histories were recorded at a major cytopathology laboratory provided the opportunity to study progression and regression of cervical dysplasia in an era (1962-1980) during which cervical squamous lesions were managed conservatively. Actuarial and Cox's survival analyses were used to estimate the rates and relative risks of progression and regression of mild (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 1 [CIN1]) and moderate (CIN2) dysplasias. In addition, more than 17,000 women with a history of Pap smears between 1970 and 1980 inclusive and who were diagnosed as having mild, moderate, or severe dysplasia were linked to the Ontario Cancer Registry for the outcome of any subsequent cervical cancers occurring through 1989. Both mild and moderate dysplasias were more likely to regress than to progress. The risk of progression from mild to severe dysplasia or worse was only 1% per year, but the risk of progression from moderate dysplasia was 16% within 2 years and 25% within 5 years. Most of the excess risk of cervical cancer for severe and moderate dysplasias occurred within 2 years of the initial dysplastic smear. After 2 years, in comparison with mild dysplasia, the relative risks for progression from severe or moderate dysplasia to cervical cancer in situ or worse was 4.2 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.0-5.7) and 2.5 (95% CI = 2.2-3.0), respectively. The risk of progression for moderate dysplasia was intermediate between the risks for mild and severe dysplasia; thus, the moderate category may represent a clinically useful distinction. The majority of untreated mild dysplasias were recorded as regressing to yield a normal smear within 2 years.