Risk of Outdoor Rape and Proximity to Bus Stops, Bars, and Residences

Abstract

Several researchers have linked the configuration of public places to the risk of sexual attack against women, including rape. Based on the routine activity approach and crime pattern theory, we expect to find the greatest risk of outdoor urban rape near public places that are “target rich,” “offender rich,” and “guardian poor.” We apply the theory to 193 outdoor rape locations in Campinas, Brazil, 2010–2013. We measure distances to the nearest bus stops, bars, and residences, then compare each of these to the distance from random points in the same city. Consistent with theory, outdoor rape victimizations occur disproportionately near bus stops and bars, but at least 250 meters away from the location of the nearest residence of any type. This baseline model suggests that urban planners could make women more secure from outdoor sexual attack by improving the design and location of public places, reducing the concealment of such places, and enhancing guardianship.