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      Methodology of risk assessment and decomposition in power grid applications

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          Abstract

          The most common approach to risk assessment for power systems is based on the $N - 1$ principle. Nevertheless, the economic rationale suggests its relaxation in cases where the consequences are relatively minor and exacerbation when they are large. This study addresses this need by proposing an alternative operational risk assessment methodology that is based on both probabilities and costs of possible contingencies. The foundations are built on listing all possible contingencies that may be considered by the transmission system operator (TSO). As only a subset of these contingencies can be examined in reasonable time, the upper and lower risk boundaries are introduced to quantify the risk underestimation. The ratio of those limits is used as an accuracy indicator, which – according to the desired level – may help the TSO to identify the required number of contingencies that have to be analysed. Furthermore, several approaches to improve the reduction of the number of simulated contingencies are discussed and the results obtained basing on the dynamic IEEE39 model are presented.

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          Most cited references 10

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          Security analysis and optimization

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            Value of security: modeling time-dependent phenomena and weather conditions

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              A risk-based security index for determining operating limits in stability-limited electric power systems

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Journal
                IET-GTD
                IET Generation, Transmission & Distribution
                IET Gener. Transm. Distrib.
                The Institution of Engineering and Technology
                1751-8687
                1751-8695
                21 May 2018
                20 June 2018
                28 August 2018
                : 12
                : 15
                : 3666-3672
                Affiliations
                [1 ] Interdisciplinary Division for Energy Analyses, National Centre for Nuclear Research , Warsaw, Poland
                [2 ] Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Silesian University of Technology , Gliwice, Poland
                Article
                IET-GTD.2017.1731 GTD.2017.1731.R1
                10.1049/iet-gtd.2017.1731

                This is an open access article published by the IET under the Creative Commons Attribution -NonCommercial License ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/)

                Page count
                Pages: 0
                Product
                Funding
                Funded by: AXA Research Fund
                Categories
                Research Article

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