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      Effect of ambient air pollution and meteorological factors on the potential transmission of COVID-19 in Turkey

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      Author(s):
      Publication date (Electronic):
      Journal: Environmental Research
      Publisher: Elsevier Inc.
      Keywords: SARS-CoV-2, Air quality parameters, Meteorology, COVID-19 pandemic, Transmission, Turkey

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          Abstract

          There is a need to improve the understanding of air quality parameters and meteorological conditions on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in different regions of the world. In this preliminary study, we explore the relationship between short-term air quality (nitrogen dioxide (NO 2), sulfur dioxide (SO 2), ozone (O 3), and particulate matter (PM 2.5, PM 10)) exposure, temperature, humidity, and wind speed on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in 41 cities of Turkey with reported weekly cases from February 8 to April 2, 2021. Both linear and non-linear relationships were explored. The nonlinear association between weekly confirmed cases and short-term exposure to predictor factors was investigated using a generalized additive model (GAM).

          The preliminary results indicate that there was a significant association between humidity and weekly confirmed COVID-19 cases. The cooler temperatures had a positive correlation with the occurrence of new confirmed cases. The low PM 2.5 concentrations had a negative correlation with the number of new cases, while reducing SO 2 concentrations may help decrease the number of new cases. This is the first study investigating the relationship between measured air pollutants, meteorological factors, and the number of weekly confirmed COVID-19 cases across Turkey. There are several limitations of the presented study, however, the preliminary results show that there is a need to understand the impacts of regional air quality parameters and meteorological factors on the transmission of the virus.

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          Fast stable restricted maximum likelihood and marginal likelihood estimation of semiparametric generalized linear models

          Simon N. Wood (2011)
          Article 0 comments Cited 991 times – based on 0 reviews     Review now
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            Can atmospheric pollution be considered a co-factor in extremely high level of SARS-CoV-2 lethality in Northern Italy? ☆

            Edoardo Conticini, Bruno Frediani, Dario Caro (2020)
            This paper investigates the correlation between the high level of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome CoronaVirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) lethality and the atmospheric pollution in Northern Italy. Indeed, Lombardy and Emilia Romagna are Italian regions with both the highest level of virus lethality in the world and one of Europe’s most polluted area. Based on this correlation, this paper analyzes the possible link between pollution and the development of acute respiratory distress syndrome and eventually death. We provide evidence that people living in an area with high levels of pollutant are more prone to develop chronic respiratory conditions and suitable to any infective agent. Moreover, a prolonged exposure to air pollution leads to a chronic inflammatory stimulus, even in young and healthy subjects. We conclude that the high level of pollution in Northern Italy should be considered an additional co-factor of the high level of lethality recorded in that area.
            Article 0 comments Cited 403 times – based on 0 reviews     Review now
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              Factors determining the diffusion of COVID-19 and suggested strategy to prevent future accelerated viral infectivity similar to COVID

              Mario Coccia (2020)
              This study has two goals. The first is to explain the geo-environmental determinants of the accelerated diffusion of COVID-19 in Italy that is generating a high level of deaths. The second is to suggest a strategy to cope with future epidemic threats having accelerated viral infectivity in society. Using data on N = 55 Italian province capitals, and data of infected individuals at as of April 7th, 2020, results reveal that the accelerate and vast diffusion of COVID-19 in North Italy has a high association with air pollution of cities measured with days exceeding the limits set for PM10 (particulate matter 10 μm or less in diameter) or ozone in previous years. In particular, hinterland cities with average higher number of days exceeding the limits set for PM10 (and a low intensity of wind speed) have a very high number of infected people on 7th April 2020 (arithmetic mean about 2200 infected, with average polluted days greater than 80), than coastal cities also having days of exceeding the limits set for PM10 or ozone but with high intensity of wind speed (arithmetic mean about 944.70 infected individuals, with about 60 average polluted days); moreover, cities having more than 100 days of air pollution (exceeding the limits set for PM10), they have a very high average number of infected people (about 3350 infected individuals, 7th April 2020), whereas cities having less than 100 days of air pollution, they have a lower average number of infected individuals (about 1014). The findings here also suggest that to minimize the impact of future epidemics similar to COVID-19, the max number of days per year in which Italian provincial capitals can exceed the limits set for PM10 or for ozone, considering their meteorological conditions, is about 48 days. Moreover, results here reveal that the explanatory variable of air pollution in cities under study seems to be a more important predictor in the initial phase of diffusion (on 17th March 2020, b1 = 1.27, p < 0.001) than interpersonal contacts (b2 = 0.31, p < 0.05). In the second phase of maturity of the transmission dynamics of COVID-19, air pollution reduces intensity (on 7th April 2020 with b′1 = 0.81, p < 0.001) also because of indirect effect of lockdown, whereas coefficient of transmission by interpersonal contacts has stability (b′2 = 0.31, p < 0.01). This result reveals that accelerated transmissions dynamics of COVID-19 is due to mainly to the mechanism of “air pollution-to-human transmission” rather than “human-to-human transmission”. Overall, then, transmission dynamics of viral infectivity, such as COVID-19, is due to systemic causes: general factors that are the same for all regions (e.g., biological characteristics of virus, incubation period, etc.) and specific factors which are different for each region (e.g., complex interaction between air pollution, meteorological conditions and biological characteristics of viral infectivity) and health level of individuals (habits, immune system, age, sex, etc.). Lessons learned for COVID-19 in the case study of Italy suggest that a proactive strategy to cope with future epidemics is to also apply especially an environmental and sustainable policy based on reduction of levels of air pollution mainly in hinterland and polluting cities- having low wind speed, high percentage of moisture and fog days-that seem to have an environment that may damage immune system of people and foster a fast transmission dynamics of viral infectivity in society. Hence, in the presence of polluting industrialization in regions that can trigger the mechanism of air pollution-to-human transmission dynamics of viral infectivity, this study must conclude that a comprehensive strategy to prevent future epidemics similar to COVID-19 has to be also designed in environmental and socioeconomic terms, that is also based on sustainability science and environmental science, and not only in terms of biology, healthcare and health sector.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Journal ID (nlm-ta): Environ Res
                Journal ID (iso-abbrev): Environ Res
                Title: Environmental Research
                Publisher: Elsevier Inc.
                ISSN (Print): 0013-9351
                ISSN (Electronic): 1096-0953
                Publication date PMC-release: 7 June 2022
                Publication date (Print): September 2022
                Publication date (Electronic): 7 June 2022
                Volume: 212
                Page: 113646
                Affiliations
                [1]Marmara University, Department of Environmental Engineering, Istanbul, Turkey
                Article
                Publisher Item ID: S0013-9351(22)00973-2 Publisher ID: 113646
                DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.113646
                PMC ID: 9172252
                PubMed ID: 35688216
                SO-VID: 2981f0ad-4872-42f6-969a-c12128cd6b5e
                Copyright © © 2022 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
                License:

                Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.

                History
                Date received : 27 February 2022
                Date revision received : 5 June 2022
                Date accepted : 6 June 2022
                Categories
                Subject: Article

                ScienceOpen disciplines: General environmental science
                Keywords: sars-cov-2,air quality parameters,meteorology,covid-19 pandemic,transmission,turkey
                Data availability:
                ScienceOpen disciplines: General environmental science
                Keywords: sars-cov-2, air quality parameters, meteorology, covid-19 pandemic, transmission, turkey

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