A Coronary CT Angiography Radiomics Model to Identify Vulnerable Plaque and Predict Cardiovascular Events

Advances in genomics have led to the recognition that tumors are populated by distinct genotypic subgroups that drive tumor development and progression. The spatial and temporal heterogeneity of solid tumors has been a critical barrier to the development of precision medicine approaches because the standard approach to tumor sampling, often invasive needle biopsy, is unable to fully capture the spatial state of the tumor. Image-based phenotyping, which represents quantification of the tumor phenotype through medical imaging, is a promising development for precision medicine.

Background Unlike most noninvasive imaging modalities, coronary computed tomography angiography can characterize subtypes of atherosclerotic plaque. Objectives The purpose of this study was to investigate the prognostic implications of adverse coronary plaque characteristics in patients with suspected coronary artery disease. Methods In this SCOT-HEART (Scottish COmputed Tomography of the HEART Trial) post hoc analysis, the presence of adverse plaque (positive remodeling or low attenuation plaque), obstructive disease, and coronary artery calcification within 15 coronary segments was assessed on coronary computed tomography angiography of 1,769 patients who were followed-up for 5 years. Results Among study participants (mean age 58 ± 10 years; 56% male), 608 (34%) patients had 1 or more adverse plaque features. Coronary heart disease death or nonfatal myocardial infarction was 3 times more frequent in patients with adverse plaque (n = 25 of 608 [4.1%] vs. n = 16 of 1,161 [1.4%]; p < 0.001; hazard ratio [HR]: 3.01; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.61 to 5.63; p = 0.001) and was twice as frequent in those with obstructive disease (n = 22 of 452 [4.9%] vs. n = 16 of 671 [2.4%]; p = 0.024; HR: 1.99; 95% CI: 1.05 to 3.79; p = 0.036). Patients with both obstructive disease and adverse plaque had the highest event rate, with a 10-fold increase in coronary heart disease death or nonfatal myocardial infarction compared with patients with normal coronary arteries (HR: 11.50; 95% CI: 3.39 to 39.04; p < 0.001). However, these associations were not independent of coronary artery calcium score, a surrogate measure of coronary plaque burden. Conclusions Adverse coronary plaque characteristics and overall calcified plaque burden confer an increased risk of coronary heart disease death or nonfatal myocardial infarction. (Scottish COmputed Tomography of the HEART Trial [SCOT-HEART]; NCT01149590)

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