To identify risk factors and predictive models for proximal junctional kyphosis (PJK) in a long-term follow-up of patients with adult degenerative scoliosis (ADS) following posterior corrective surgeries.
A consecutive 113 ADS patients undergoing posterior corrective surgery between January 2008 and April 2019 with minimum 2-year follow-up were included. All patients underwent preoperative, postoperative, and final follow-up by X-ray imaging. Multivariate logistic analysis was performed on various risk factors and radiological predictor models.
PJK was identified radiographically in 46.9% of patients. Potential risk factors for PJK included postoperative thoracic kyphosis (TK) ( P < .05), final follow-up Pelvic Tilt (PT) ( P < .05), PT changes at final follow-up ( P < .05), age over 55 years old at the surgery ( P < .05), theoretical thoracic kyphosis–actual thoracic kyphosis mismatch (TK mismatch) ( P < .05) and theoretical lumbar lordosis–acutal lumbar lordosis mismatch (LL mismatch) ( P < .05). As for the predictive models, PJK was predictive by the following indicators: preoperative global sagittal alignment ≥45° (Model 1), postoperative pelvic incidence–lumbar lordosis mismatch (PI–LL)≤10° and postoperative PI–LL overcorrection (Model 2), and TK+LL≥0° (Model 3) ( P < .05). Postoperative TK mismatch (OR = 1.064) was independent as risk factors for PJK, with the cut-off values respectively set at −28.56° to predict occurrence of PJK.