Reconstructing ancient Mediterranean crossroads in Deronectes diving beetles

Phylogenetic trees in insects are frequently dated by applying a "standard" mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) clock estimated at 2.3% My(-1), but despite its wide use reliable calibration points have been lacking. Here, we used a well-established biogeographic barrier, the mid-Aegean trench separating the western and eastern Aegean archipelago, to estimate substitution rates in tenebrionid beetles. Cytochrome oxidase I (cox1) for six codistributed genera across 28 islands (444 individuals) on both sides of the mid-Aegean trench revealed 60 independently coalescing entities delimited with a mixed Yule-coalescent model. One representative per entity was used for phylogenetic analysis of mitochondrial (cox1, 16S rRNA) and nuclear (Mp20, 28S rRNA) genes. Six nodes marked geographically congruent east-west splits whose separation was largely contemporaneous and likely to reflect the formation of the mid-Aegean trench at 9-12 Mya. Based on these "known" dates, a divergence rate of 3.54% My(-1) for the cox1 gene (2.69% when combined with the 16S rRNA gene) was obtained under the preferred partitioning scheme and substitution model selected using Bayes factors. An extensive survey suggests that discrepancies in mtDNA substitution rates in the entomological literature can be attributed to the use of different substitution models, the use of different mitochondrial gene regions, mixing of intraspecific with interspecific data, and not accounting for variance in coalescent times or postseparation gene flow. Different treatments of these factors in the literature confound estimates of mtDNA substitution rates in opposing directions and obscure lineage-specific differences in rates when comparing data from various sources.

At a time when historical biogeography appears to be again expanding its scope after a period of focusing primarily on discerning area relationships using cladograms, new inference methods are needed to bring more kinds of data to bear on questions about the geographic history of lineages. Here we describe a likelihood framework for inferring the evolution of geographic range on phylogenies that models lineage dispersal and local extinction in a set of discrete areas as stochastic events in continuous time. Unlike existing methods for estimating ancestral areas, such as dispersal-vicariance analysis, this approach incorporates information on the timing of both lineage divergences and the availability of connections between areas (dispersal routes). Monte Carlo methods are used to estimate branch-specific transition probabilities for geographic ranges, enabling the likelihood of the data (observed species distributions) to be evaluated for a given phylogeny and parameterized paleogeographic model. We demonstrate how the method can be used to address two biogeographic questions: What were the ancestral geographic ranges on a phylogenetic tree? How were those ancestral ranges affected by speciation and inherited by the daughter lineages at cladogenesis events? For illustration we use hypothetical examples and an analysis of a Northern Hemisphere plant clade (Cercis), comparing and contrasting inferences to those obtained from dispersal-vicariance analysis. Although the particular model we implement is somewhat simplistic, the framework itself is flexible and could readily be modified to incorporate additional sources of information and also be extended to address other aspects of historical biogeography.

Phylogenies reconstructed from gene sequences can be used to investigate the tempo and mode of species diversification. Here we develop and use new statistical methods to infer past patterns of speciation and extinction from molecular phylogenies. Specifically, we test the null hypothesis that per-lineage speciation and extinction rates have remained constant through time. Rejection of this hypothesis may provide evidence for evolutionary events such as adaptive radiations or key adaptations. In contrast to previous approaches, our methods are robust to incomplete taxon sampling and are conservative with respect to extinction. Using simulation we investigate, first, the adverse effects of failing to take incomplete sampling into account and, second, the power and reliability of our tests. When applied to published phylogenies our tests suggest that, in some cases, speciation rates have decreased through time.