Renyi entropy and mutual information measurement of market expectations and investor fear during the COVID-19 pandemic

Highlights

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  Via Renyi entropy we analyze the multiscale entropy measurement of global markets.

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  By estimating mutual information we expose the dependencies and information flow.

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  Randomness and disorder are more observed in low probability events.

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  The information sharing network among markets was modified during COVID-19 pandemic.

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  We offer a valuable insight of the impact of COVID-19 pandemic upon expectations and investor fear.

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has seriously affected world economies. In this regard, it is expected that information level and sharing between equity, digital currency, and energy markets has been altered due to the pandemic outbreak. Specifically, the resulting twisted risk among markets is presumed to rise during the abnormal state of world economy. The purpose of the current study is twofold. First, by using Renyi entropy, we analyze the multiscale entropy function in the return time series of Bitcoin, S&P500, WTI, Brent, Gas, Gold, Silver, and investor fear index represented by VIX. Second, by estimating mutual information, we analyze the information sharing between these markets. The analyses are conducted before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. The empirical results from Renyi entropy indicate that for all market indices, randomness and disorder are more concentrated in less probable events. The empirical results from mutual information showed that the information sharing network between markets has changed during the COVID-19 pandemic. From a managerial perspective, we conclude that during the pandemic ( i) portfolios composed of Bitcoin and Silver, Bitcoin and WTI, Bitcoin and Gold, Bitcoin and Brent, or Bitcoin and S&P500 could be risky, ( ii) diversification opportunities exist by investing in portfolios composed of Gas and Silver, Gold and Silver, Gold and Gas, Brent and Silver, Brent and Gold, or Bitcoin and Gas, and that ( iii) the VIX exhibited the lowest level of information disorder at all scales before and during the pandemic. Thus, it seems that the pandemic has not influenced the expectations of investors. Our results provide an insight of the response of stocks, cryptocurrencies, energy, precious metal markets, to expectations of investors in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic in terms of information ordering and sharing.