Tendências temporais de morbidades e fatores de risco e de proteção para doenças crônicas não transmissíveis em pessoas idosas residentes nas capitais brasileiras

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Abstract

RESUMO Objetivo: Analisar as tendências temporais das prevalências de morbidades e dos fatores de risco e de proteção para as doenças crônicas não transmissíveis em pessoas idosas residentes nas capitais brasileiras entre 2006 e 2021. Métodos: Estudo de série temporal com dados do Sistema de Vigilância de Fatores de Risco e Proteção para Doenças Crônicas por Inquérito Telefônico. Analisaram-se as variáveis: hipertensão arterial; diabetes; tabagismo; excesso de peso; obesidade; consumo de bebidas alcoólicas, refrigerantes, frutas e hortaliças; e prática de atividade física. Empregaram-se o modelo de regressão de Prais-Winsten e a séries temporais interrompidas (de 2006 a 2014 e de 2015 a 2021). Resultados: De 2006 a 2021, para a população total de idosos, houve aumento de diabetes (19,2 para 28,4%), do consumo de álcool (2,5 para 3,2%), do dexcesso de peso (52,4 para 60,7%) e da obesidade (16,8 para 21,8%), e redução do tabagismo (9,4 para 7,4%) e consumo de refrigerantes (17,0 para 8,7%). Pelas séries interrompidas, entre 2015 e 2021, houve estabilidade da prevalência de diabetes, fumantes do sexo feminino, excesso de peso nos homens, obesidade na população total e no sexo masculino e consumo de refrigerante. Conclusão: Ao longo dos anos houve mudanças e piora dos indicadores analisados, como aumento de diabetes, do consumo de álcool, do excesso de peso e da obesidade, o que reforça a importância do monitoramento contínuo e da sustentabilidade de programas de promoção da saúde, especialmente no contexto de crise econômica, austeridade e pandemia decorrente da COVID-19.

Abstract

ABSTRACT Objective: To analyze the temporal trends of prevalence of morbidities, risk and protection factors for noncommunicable diseases in elderly residents in Brazilian capitals between 2006 and 2021. Methods: A time series study with data from the Surveillance System of Risk and Protective Factors for Chronic Diseases by Telephone Inquiry. The variables analyzed were: high blood pressure, diabetes, smoking, overweight, obesity, consumption of alcoholic beverages, soft drinks, fruits and vegetables, and the practice of physical activity. Prais-Winsten regression and Interrupted Time Series from 2006 to 2014 and 2015 to 2021 were used. Results: From 2006 to 2021, for the total elderly population, there was an increase in diabetes (19.2 to 28.4%), alcohol consumption (2.5 to 3.2%), overweight (52.4 to 60.7%) and obesity (16.8 to 21.8%), and a reduction in the prevalence of smokers (9.4 to 7.4%) and in soft drink consumption (17 to 8.7%). By the interrupted series, between 2015 and 2021, there was stability in the prevalence of diabetes, female smokers, overweight among men, obesity in the total and male population, and soft drink consumption. Conclusion: Over the years, there have been changes and worsening in the indicators analyzed, such as an increase in diabetes, alcohol consumption, overweight, and obesity, which reinforces the importance of continuous monitoring and sustainability programs to promote the health, especially in the context of economic crisis, austerity, and COVID-19 pandemic.

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Body-mass index and all-cause mortality: individual-participant-data meta-analysis of 239 prospective studies in four continents

Neil Murphy, George Davey Smith (2017)

Summary Background Overweight and obesity are increasing worldwide. To help assess their relevance to mortality in different populations we conducted individual-participant data meta-analyses of prospective studies of body-mass index (BMI), limiting confounding and reverse causality by restricting analyses to never-smokers and excluding pre-existing disease and the first 5 years of follow-up. Methods Of 10 625 411 participants in Asia, Australia and New Zealand, Europe, and North America from 239 prospective studies (median follow-up 13·7 years, IQR 11·4–14·7), 3 951 455 people in 189 studies were never-smokers without chronic diseases at recruitment who survived 5 years, of whom 385 879 died. The primary analyses are of these deaths, and study, age, and sex adjusted hazard ratios (HRs), relative to BMI 22·5–<25·0 kg/m2. Findings All-cause mortality was minimal at 20·0–25·0 kg/m2 (HR 1·00, 95% CI 0·98–1·02 for BMI 20·0–<22·5 kg/m2; 1·00, 0·99–1·01 for BMI 22·5–<25·0 kg/m2), and increased significantly both just below this range (1·13, 1·09–1·17 for BMI 18·5–<20·0 kg/m2; 1·51, 1·43–1·59 for BMI 15·0–<18·5) and throughout the overweight range (1·07, 1·07–1·08 for BMI 25·0–<27·5 kg/m2; 1·20, 1·18–1·22 for BMI 27·5–<30·0 kg/m2). The HR for obesity grade 1 (BMI 30·0–<35·0 kg/m2) was 1·45, 95% CI 1·41–1·48; the HR for obesity grade 2 (35·0–<40·0 kg/m2) was 1·94, 1·87–2·01; and the HR for obesity grade 3 (40·0–<60·0 kg/m2) was 2·76, 2·60–2·92. For BMI over 25·0 kg/m2, mortality increased approximately log-linearly with BMI; the HR per 5 kg/m2 units higher BMI was 1·39 (1·34–1·43) in Europe, 1·29 (1·26–1·32) in North America, 1·39 (1·34–1·44) in east Asia, and 1·31 (1·27–1·35) in Australia and New Zealand. This HR per 5 kg/m2 units higher BMI (for BMI over 25 kg/m2) was greater in younger than older people (1·52, 95% CI 1·47–1·56, for BMI measured at 35–49 years vs 1·21, 1·17–1·25, for BMI measured at 70–89 years; pheterogeneity<0·0001), greater in men than women (1·51, 1·46–1·56, vs 1·30, 1·26–1·33; pheterogeneity<0·0001), but similar in studies with self-reported and measured BMI. Interpretation The associations of both overweight and obesity with higher all-cause mortality were broadly consistent in four continents. This finding supports strategies to combat the entire spectrum of excess adiposity in many populations. Funding UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, National Institute for Health Research, US National Institutes of Health.

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Uso da análise de séries temporais em estudos epidemiológicos

José Antunes, Maria Cardoso (2015)

Esse artigo visa introduzir e cativar o interesse sobre a análise de séries temporais em estudos epidemiológicos. São descritos aspectos conceituais desse tipo de análise e sistematizadas indicações metodológicas. Foram definidos os principais conceitos da análise de séries temporais (tendência, variação cíclica e sazonal, associação e variação aleatória), e operacionalizada sua aplicação epidemiológica. Foram apresentados os métodos para avaliação da tendência (porcentagem de modificação anual), baseados em modelos de regressão de Prais-Winsten, e para quantificação da variação sazonal, segundo o modelo de Serfling. Foi, ainda, introduzida a modalidade de análise de regressão segmentada para séries temporais interrompidas, como estratégia de avaliação do efeito de intervenções em saúde.

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The Brazilian health system at crossroads: progress, crisis and resilience

Adriano Massuda, Thomas Hone, Fernando Antonio Gomes Leles … (2018)

The Unified Health System (Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS)) has enabled substantial progress towards Universal Health Coverage (UHC) in Brazil. However, structural weakness, economic and political crises and austerity policies that have capped public expenditure growth are threatening its sustainability and outcomes. This paper analyses the Brazilian health system progress since 2000 and the current and potential effects of the coalescing economic and political crises and the subsequent austerity policies. We use literature review, policy analysis and secondary data from governmental sources in 2000–2017 to examine changes in political and economic context, health financing, health resources and healthcare service coverage in SUS. We find that, despite a favourable context, which enabled expansion of UHC from 2003 to 2014, structural problems persist in SUS, including gaps in organisation and governance, low public funding and suboptimal resource allocation. Consequently, large regional disparities exist in access to healthcare services and health outcomes, with poorer regions and lower socioeconomic population groups disadvantaged the most. These structural problems and disparities will likely worsen with the austerity measures introduced by the current government, and risk reversing the achievements of SUS in improving population health outcomes. The speed at which adverse effects of the current and political crises are manifested in the Brazilian health system underscores the importance of enhancing health system resilience to counteract external shocks (such as economic and political crises) and internal shocks (such as sector-specific austerity policies and rapid ageing leading to rise in disease burden) to protect hard-achieved progress towards UHC.