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      The economic impact of pandemic influenza in the United States: priorities for intervention.

      review-article
      , ,
      Emerging Infectious Diseases
      Centers for Disease Control

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          Abstract

          We estimated the possible effects of the next influenza pandemic in the United States and analyzed the economic impact of vaccine-based interventions. Using death rates, hospitalization data, and outpatient visits, we estimated 89,000 to 207,000 deaths; 314,000 to 734,000 hospitalizations; 18 to 42 million outpatient visits; and 20 to 47 million additional illnesses. Patients at high risk (15% of the population) would account for approximately 84% of all deaths. The estimated economic impact would be US$71.3 to $166.5 billion, excluding disruptions to commerce and society. At $21 per vaccinee, we project a net savings to society if persons in all age groups are vaccinated. At $62 per vaccinee and at gross attack rates of 25%, we project net losses if persons not at high risk for complications are vaccinated. Vaccinating 60% of the population would generate the highest economic returns but may not be possible within the time required for vaccine effectiveness, especially if two doses of vaccine are required.

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          Author and article information

          Journal
          Emerg Infect Dis
          eid
          Emerging Infectious Diseases
          Centers for Disease Control
          1080-6040
          1080-6059
          Sep-Oct 1999
          : 5
          : 5
          : 659-671
          Affiliations
          National Center for Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30333, USA.
          Article
          10.3201/eid0505.990507
          2627723
          10511522
          48f309fb-f09c-4238-bb37-e819ee57e4ac
          History
          Categories
          Research Article

          Infectious disease & Microbiology
          Infectious disease & Microbiology

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