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      One-year clinical outcome of patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation: Insights from KERALA-AF registry

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          Abstract

          Background

          We report patient characteristics, treatment pattern and one-year clinical outcome of nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) from Kerala, India. This cohort forms part of Kerala Atrial Fibrillation (KERALA-AF) registry which is an ongoing large prospective study.

          Methods

          KERALA-AF registry collected data of adults with previously or newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation (AF) during April 2016 to April 2017. A total of 3421 patients were recruited from 53 hospitals across Kerala state. We analysed one-year follow-up outcome of 2507 patients with NVAF.

          Results

          Mean age at recruitment was 67.2 years (range 18–98) and 54.8% were males. Main co-morbidities were hypertension (61.2%), hyperlipidaemia (46.2%) and diabetes mellitus (37.2%). Major co-existing diseases were chronic kidney disease (42.1%), coronary artery disease (41.6%), and chronic heart failure (26.4%). Mean CHA 2DS 2-VASc score was 3.18 (SD ± 1.7) and HAS-BLED score, 1.84 (SD ± 1.3). At baseline, use of oral anticoagulants (OAC) was 38.6% and antiplatelets 32.7%. On one-month follow-up use of OAC increased to 65.8% and antiplatelets to 48.3%. One-year all-cause mortality was 16.48 and hospitalization 20.65 per 100 person years. The main causes of death were cardiovascular (75.0%), stroke (13.1%) and others (11.9%). The major causes of hospitalizations were acute coronary syndrome (35.0%), followed by arrhythmia (29.5%) and heart failure (8.4%).

          Conclusions

          Despite high risk profile of patients in this registry, use of OAC was suboptimal, whereas antiplatelets were used in nearly half of patients. A relatively high rate of annual mortality and hospitalization was observed in patients with NVAF in Kerala AF Registry.

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          Most cited references28

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          Refining clinical risk stratification for predicting stroke and thromboembolism in atrial fibrillation using a novel risk factor-based approach: the euro heart survey on atrial fibrillation.

          Contemporary clinical risk stratification schemata for predicting stroke and thromboembolism (TE) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) are largely derived from risk factors identified from trial cohorts. Thus, many potential risk factors have not been included. We refined the 2006 Birmingham/National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) stroke risk stratification schema into a risk factor-based approach by reclassifying and/or incorporating additional new risk factors where relevant. This schema was then compared with existing stroke risk stratification schema in a real-world cohort of patients with AF (n = 1,084) from the Euro Heart Survey for AF. Risk categorization differed widely between the different schemes compared. Patients classified as high risk ranged from 10.2% with the Framingham schema to 75.7% with the Birmingham 2009 schema. The classic CHADS(2) (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age > 75, Diabetes, prior Stroke/transient ischemic attack) schema categorized the largest proportion (61.9%) into the intermediate-risk strata, whereas the Birmingham 2009 schema classified 15.1% into this category. The Birmingham 2009 schema classified only 9.2% as low risk, whereas the Framingham scheme categorized 48.3% as low risk. Calculated C-statistics suggested modest predictive value of all schema for TE. The Birmingham 2009 schema fared marginally better (C-statistic, 0.606) than CHADS(2). However, those classified as low risk by the Birmingham 2009 and NICE schema were truly low risk with no TE events recorded, whereas TE events occurred in 1.4% of low-risk CHADS(2) subjects. When expressed as a scoring system, the Birmingham 2009 schema (CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc acronym) showed an increase in TE rate with increasing scores (P value for trend = .003). Our novel, simple stroke risk stratification schema, based on a risk factor approach, provides some improvement in predictive value for TE over the CHADS(2) schema, with low event rates in low-risk subjects and the classification of only a small proportion of subjects into the intermediate-risk category. This schema could improve our approach to stroke risk stratification in patients with AF.
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            Worldwide epidemiology of atrial fibrillation: a Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study.

            The global burden of atrial fibrillation (AF) is unknown. We systematically reviewed population-based studies of AF published from 1980 to 2010 from the 21 Global Burden of Disease regions to estimate global/regional prevalence, incidence, and morbidity and mortality related to AF (DisModMR software). Of 377 potential studies identified, 184 met prespecified eligibility criteria. The estimated number of individuals with AF globally in 2010 was 33.5 million (20.9 million men [95% uncertainty interval (UI), 19.5-22.2 million] and 12.6 million women [95% UI, 12.0-13.7 million]). Burden associated with AF, measured as disability-adjusted life-years, increased by 18.8% (95% UI, 15.8-19.3) in men and 18.9% (95% UI, 15.8-23.5) in women from 1990 to 2010. In 1990, the estimated age-adjusted prevalence rates of AF (per 100 000 population) were 569.5 in men (95% UI, 532.8-612.7) and 359.9 in women (95% UI, 334.7-392.6); the estimated age-adjusted incidence rates were 60.7 per 100 000 person-years in men (95% UI, 49.2-78.5) and 43.8 in women (95% UI, 35.9-55.0). In 2010, the prevalence rates increased to 596.2 (95% UI, 558.4-636.7) in men and 373.1 (95% UI, 347.9-402.2) in women; the incidence rates increased to 77.5 (95% UI, 65.2-95.4) in men and 59.5 (95% UI, 49.9-74.9) in women. Mortality associated with AF was higher in women and increased by 2-fold (95% UI, 2.0-2.2) and 1.9-fold (95% UI, 1.8-2.0) in men and women, respectively, from 1990 to 2010. There was evidence of significant regional heterogeneity in AF estimations and availability of population-based data. These findings provide evidence of progressive increases in overall burden, incidence, prevalence, and AF-associated mortality between 1990 and 2010, with significant public health implications. Systematic, regional surveillance of AF is required to better direct prevention and treatment strategies.
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              A novel user-friendly score (HAS-BLED) to assess 1-year risk of major bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation: the Euro Heart Survey.

              Despite extensive use of oral anticoagulation (OAC) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and the increased bleeding risk associated with such OAC use, no handy quantification tool for assessing this risk exists. We aimed to develop a practical risk score to estimate the 1-year risk for major bleeding (intracranial, hospitalization, hemoglobin decrease > 2 g/L, and/or transfusion) in a cohort of real-world patients with AF. Based on 3,978 patients in the Euro Heart Survey on AF with complete follow-up, all univariate bleeding risk factors in this cohort were used in a multivariate analysis along with historical bleeding risk factors. A new bleeding risk score termed HAS-BLED (Hypertension, Abnormal renal/liver function, Stroke, Bleeding history or predisposition, Labile international normalized ratio, Elderly (> 65 years), Drugs/alcohol concomitantly) was calculated, incorporating risk factors from the derivation cohort. Fifty-three (1.5%) major bleeds occurred during 1-year follow-up. The annual bleeding rate increased with increasing risk factors. The predictive accuracy in the overall population using significant risk factors in the derivation cohort (C statistic 0.72) was consistent when applied in several subgroups. Application of the new bleeding risk score (HAS-BLED) gave similar C statistics except where patients were receiving antiplatelet agents alone or no antithrombotic therapy, with C statistics of 0.91 and 0.85, respectively. This simple, novel bleeding risk score (HAS-BLED) provides a practical tool to assess the individual bleeding risk of real-world patients with AF, potentially supporting clinical decision making regarding antithrombotic therapy in patients with AF.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Journal
                Indian Heart J
                Indian Heart J
                Indian Heart Journal
                Elsevier
                0019-4832
                2213-3763
                Jan-Feb 2021
                19 December 2020
                : 73
                : 1
                : 56-62
                Affiliations
                [a ]Cardiovascular Centre, Ananthapuri Hospitals and Research Institute, Trivandrum, India
                [b ]Sree Chitra Tirunal Institute for Medical Sciences and Technology, Trivandrum, India
                [c ]Lisie Heart Institute, Ernakulam, India
                [d ]Liverpool Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Liverpool, United Kingdom
                [e ]Liverpool Heart & Chest Hospital, Liverpool, United Kingdom
                [f ]Aalborg Thrombosis Research Unit, Department of Clinical Medicine, Aalborg University, Aalborg, Denmark
                [g ]Medical College Hospital, Trivandrum, India 8Global Institute of Public Health, 6. Cardiovascular Centre, Ananthapuri Hospitals and Research Institute, Trivandrum, India
                [h ]Mother Hospital, Trissur, India
                [i ]Pushpagiri Medical College, Thiruvalla, India
                [j ]MOSC Medical College, Kolenchery, Ernakulam, India
                [k ]Amrita Institute of Medical Sciences, Ernakulam, India
                [l ]Global Institute of Public Health, Trivandrum, Kerala, India
                [m ]Caritas Hospital, Thellakam, Kottayam, India
                [n ]Baby Memorial Hospital, Calicut, India
                [o ]Lekshmi Hospital, Chittur Road Palakkad, India
                [p ]West Fort Hi-Tech Hospital, Ponkunam, Thrissur, India
                [q ]Government Medical College Hospital, Kottayam, India
                [r ]Jubilee Mission Medical College, Trissur, India
                [s ]Government Medical College Hospital, Calicut, India
                [t ]School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, USA
                [u ]General Hospital, Kollam, India
                [v ]Dr Damodaran Memorial Hospital, Kollam, India
                [w ]N S Memorial Institute of Medical Sciences, Kollam, India
                [x ]Little Flower Hospital, M C Road, Angamali, India
                Author notes
                []Corresponding author. Chairman, Cardiovascular Centre, Ananthapuri Hospitals and Research Institute, Chacka, Trivandrum, 695024, Kerala, India. bahuleyan2001@ 123456yahoo.co.uk
                Article
                S0019-4832(20)30457-0
                10.1016/j.ihj.2020.11.152
                7961260
                33714410
                49cc93c3-4610-4c35-b5c5-8fb6cc8ad61a
                © 2020 Cardiological Society of India. Published by Elsevier B.V.

                This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

                History
                : 14 May 2020
                : 29 November 2020
                Categories
                Original Article

                af registry,cardiac arrhythmia,kerala,nonvalvular atrial fibrillation,stroke

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