Nomograms predicting survival of patients with unresectable or metastatic gastric cancer who receive combination cytotoxic chemotherapy as first-line treatment

This systematic review and meta-analysis were performed to assess the efficacy and tolerability of chemotherapy in patients with advanced gastric cancer. Randomized phase II and III clinical trials on first-line chemotherapy in advanced gastric cancer were identified by electronic searches of Medline, Embase, the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register, and Cancerlit; hand searches of relevant abstract books and reference lists; and contact to experts. Meta-analysis was performed using the fixed-effect model. Overall survival, reported as hazard ratio (HR) with 95% CI, was the primary outcome measure. Analysis of chemotherapy versus best supportive care (HR = 0.39; 95% CI, 0.28 to 0.52) and combination versus single agent, mainly fluorouracil (FU) -based chemotherapy (HR = 0.83; 95% CI = 0.74 to 0.93) showed significant overall survival benefits in favor of chemotherapy and combination chemotherapy, respectively. In addition, comparisons of FU/cisplatin-containing regimens with versus without anthracyclines (HR = 0.77; 95% CI, 0.62 to 0.95) and FU/anthracycline-containing combinations with versus without cisplatin (HR = 0.83; 95% CI, 0.76 to 0.91) both demonstrated a significant survival benefit for the three-drug combination. Comparing irinotecan-containing versus nonirinotecan-containing combinations (mainly FU/cisplatin) resulted in a nonsignificant survival benefit in favor of the irinotecan-containing regimens (HR = 0.88; 95% CI, 0.73 to 1.06), but they have never been compared against a three-drug combination. Best survival results are achieved with three-drug regimens containing FU, an anthracycline, and cisplatin. Among these, regimens including FU as bolus exhibit a higher rate of toxic deaths than regimens using a continuous infusion of FU, such as epirubicin, cisplatin, and continuous-infusion FU.

The aim of this study was to report nationwide cancer statistics in Korea, including incidence, mortality, survival, and prevalence, and their trends.

The aim of this study was to combine clinicopathologic variables associated with overall survival after gastric resection with D2 lymphadenectomy (D2 gastrectomy) for gastric cancer into a prediction nomogram. We retrospectively analyzed 7,954 patients who underwent D2 gastrectomy for gastric cancer at Seoul National University Hospital (SNUH) in Seoul, Korea. Two thirds of the patients were randomly assigned to the training set (n = 5,300), and one third were assigned to the validation set (n = 2,654). Multivariate analysis by Cox proportional hazards regression was performed using the training set, and the nomogram was constructed. Discrimination and calibration were performed using the SNUH validation set. Additional external validation was performed using the data set (n = 2,500) from Cancer Institute Ariake Hospital (CIAH) in Tokyo, Japan. The multivariate Cox model identified age at diagnosis, sex, location, depth of invasion, number of metastatic lymph nodes, and number of examined lymph nodes as covariates associated with survival. In the SNUH validation set, the nomogram exhibited superior discrimination power compared with the seventh American Joint Committee on Cancer TNM classification (Harrell's C-index, 0.78 v 0.69, respectively; P < .001). Calibration of the nomogram predicted survival corresponding closely with the actual survival. In the CIAH validation set, discrimination was good (C-index, 0.79), and the predicted survival was within a 10% margin of ideal nomogram. We developed a nomogram predicting 5- and 10-year overall survival after D2 gastrectomy for gastric cancer. Validation using the SNUH and CIAH data sets revealed good discrimination and calibration, suggesting good clinical utility. The nomogram improved individualized predictions of survival.