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      The complex karyotype landscape in chronic lymphocytic leukemia allows the refinement of the risk of Richter syndrome transformation

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          Abstract

          Complex karyotype (CK) at chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) diagnosis is a negative biomarker of adverse outcome. Since the impact of CK and its subtypes, namely type-2 CK (CK with major structural abnormalities) or high-CK (CK with ≥5 chromosome abnormalities), on the risk of developing Richter syndrome (RS) is unknown, we carried out a multicenter real-life retrospective study to test its prognostic impact. Among 540 CLL patients, 107 harbored a CK at CLL diagnosis, 78 were classified as CK2 and 52 as high-CK. Twenty-eight patients developed RS during a median follow-up of 6.7 years. At the time of CLL diagnosis, CK2 and high-CK were more common and predicted the highest risk of RS transformation, together with advanced Binet stage, unmutated (U)-IGHV, 11q-, and TP53 abnormalities. We integrated these variables into a hierarchical model: high-CK and/or CK2 patients showed a 10-year time to RS (TTRS) of 31%; U-IGHV/11q- /TP53 abnormalities/Binet stage B-C patients had a 10-year TTRS of 12%; mutated (M)-IGHV without CK and TP53 disruption a 10-year TTRS of 3% ( P<0.0001). We herein demonstrate that CK landscape at CLL diagnosis allows the risk of RS transformation to be refined and we recapitulated clinico-biological variables into a prognostic model.

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          Multivariable prognostic models: issues in developing models, evaluating assumptions and adequacy, and measuring and reducing errors.

          Multivariable regression models are powerful tools that are used frequently in studies of clinical outcomes. These models can use a mixture of categorical and continuous variables and can handle partially observed (censored) responses. However, uncritical application of modelling techniques can result in models that poorly fit the dataset at hand, or, even more likely, inaccurately predict outcomes on new subjects. One must know how to measure qualities of a model's fit in order to avoid poorly fitted or overfitted models. Measurement of predictive accuracy can be difficult for survival time data in the presence of censoring. We discuss an easily interpretable index of predictive discrimination as well as methods for assessing calibration of predicted survival probabilities. Both types of predictive accuracy should be unbiasedly validated using bootstrapping or cross-validation, before using predictions in a new data series. We discuss some of the hazards of poorly fitted and overfitted regression models and present one modelling strategy that avoids many of the problems discussed. The methods described are applicable to all regression models, but are particularly needed for binary, ordinal, and time-to-event outcomes. Methods are illustrated with a survival analysis in prostate cancer using Cox regression.
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            Ibrutinib Regimens versus Chemoimmunotherapy in Older Patients with Untreated CLL

            Ibrutinib has been approved by the Food and Drug Administration for the treatment of patients with untreated chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) since 2016 but has not been compared with chemoimmunotherapy. We conducted a phase 3 trial to evaluate the efficacy of ibrutinib, either alone or in combination with rituximab, relative to chemoimmunotherapy.
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              Guidelines for the diagnosis and treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukemia: a report from the International Workshop on Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia updating the National Cancer Institute-Working Group 1996 guidelines.

              Standardized criteria for diagnosis and response assessment are needed to interpret and compare clinical trials and for approval of new therapeutic agents by regulatory agencies. Therefore, a National Cancer Institute-sponsored Working Group (NCI-WG) on chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) published guidelines for the design and conduct of clinical trials for patients with CLL in 1988, which were updated in 1996. During the past decade, considerable progress has been achieved in defining new prognostic markers, diagnostic parameters, and treatment options. This prompted the International Workshop on Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia (IWCLL) to provide updated recommendations for the management of CLL in clinical trials and general practice.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Haematologica
                Haematologica
                HAEMA
                Haematologica
                Fondazione Ferrata Storti
                0390-6078
                1592-8721
                03 June 2021
                01 April 2022
                : 107
                : 4
                : 868-876
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Hematology and Clinical Immunology Unit, Department of Medicine, University of Padua , Padua
                [2 ]Veneto Institute of Molecular Medicine , Padua
                [3 ]Immunology and Molecular Oncology Unit, Veneto Institute of Oncology IOV-IRCSS , Padua
                [4 ]Hematology section, Department of Medical Sciences, Azienda Ospedaliera-Universitaria, Arcispedale S. Anna, University of Ferrara , Ferrara
                [5 ]Hematology division, Department of Precision and Translational Medicine, "Sapienza" University , Rome, Italy
                Author notes

                Disclosures

                AV received honoraria from Janssen, Abbvie, Italfarmaco. LT received research funding by Gilead, Roche, Janssen and Takeda, advisory board for Roche, Shire and Abbvie, Astrazeneca. GMR received research funding by Gilead. FRM advisory board for Janssen, Shire and Abbvie. AC advisory board and speaker bureau for Roche, Abbvie, Gilead and Janssen. GS board member of Abbvie, Roche, Janssen and Celgene. RF advisory board or speaker bureau for Roche, Abbvie, Celgene, Incyte, Amgen, Janssen, Gilead and Novartis.

                Contributions

                AV designed the study, performed statistical analysis, visited patients and wrote the article; SP, LRG, MC, EV and FC and provided intellectual inputs and visited patients; LB, AM, MAB and MN performed cytogenetic tests; FF, MF and AG performed cytofluorimetric and IGHV analysis; FRM, GMR, PF, GS, RF, AC and LT visited patients, provided intellectual inputs and reviewed the article.

                Data sharing statement

                The datasets generated and analyzed during the current study are not publicly available due to the data protection and lack of consent from the patients. Access to data is strictly limited to the researchers who have obtained permission for data processing.

                Article
                10.3324/haematol.2021.278304
                8968897
                34092056
                4c227ee1-c10f-427e-8107-d2799675535b
                Copyright© 2022 Ferrata Storti Foundation

                This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial License ( by-nc 4.0) which permits any noncommercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author(s) and source are credited.

                History
                : 05 January 2021
                : 21 May 2021
                Page count
                Figures: 3, Tables: 2, Equations: 0, References: 58, Pages: 9
                Funding
                Funding : This work was supported by funds from Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro (A.I.R.C.) projects to LT (IG-25024), Gilead fellowship program 2018 to LT, Special Program ‘Metastatic disease: the key unmet need in oncology’, AIRC 5x1000 (No. 21198) to RF, Fondo di Ateneo per la Ricerca 2016, 2017 of the University of Ferrara to GMR and FC, Fondo di Incentivazione alla Ricerca 2017 of the University of Ferrara to GMR, Ministero dell’Istruzione, dell’Università e della Ricerca PRIN 2015 to AC (2015ZMRFEA). AV received a research fellowship from the University of Padua supported by ONLUS Ricerca per Credere nella Vita (RCV) odv, Padua, Italy. This study was approved by the local research ethics committee of Padua hospital and informed consent was obtained from all patients.
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