Evaluating the Environmental Kuznets Curves through Archaeological Data: A Conceptual and Theoretical Framework

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Abstract

The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) is a model of the relationship between environmental degradation and economic development. The model postulates that indicators of environmental degradation tend to be positively correlated with economic growth up to a transition point, after which the society starts deploying measures to reverse the environmental degradation leading to its decrease. This paper will introduce the EKC model and discuss the potential contributions archaeology can make to ongoing debates on the EKC. It will present several archaeological proxies that can be used, thus setting out a theoretical conceptual framework. The case study of Palmyra, a desert oasis city, and its hinterland will be used to demonstrate the potential and challenges involved. Establishing the validity of the EKC model is critical since it determines socio-economic policies. We argue that archaeological data has a strong potential to inform such debates.

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The American Economic Association

(2000)

The front matter of the June 2000 issue contains the Table of Contents.

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Increasing returns, monopolistic competition, and international trade

Paul Krugman (1979)

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Lead pollution recorded in Greenland ice indicates European emissions tracked plagues, wars, and imperial expansion during antiquity

A. Pollard, Sabine Eckhardt, Monica M. Arienzo … (2018)

An 1100 BCE to 800 CE record of estimated lead emissions based on continuous, subannually resolved, and precisely dated measurements of lead pollution in deep Greenland ice and atmospheric modeling shows that European emissions closely varied with historical events, including imperial expansion, wars, and major plagues. Emissions rose coeval with Phoenician expansion and accelerated during expanded Carthaginian and Roman lead–silver mining primarily in the Iberian Peninsula. Emissions fluctuated synchronously with wars and political instability, particularly during the Roman Republic, reaching a sustained maximum during the Roman Empire before plunging in the second century coincident with the Antonine plague, and remaining low for >500 years. Bullion in silver coinage declined in parallel, reflecting the importance of lead–silver mining in ancient economies. Lead pollution in Arctic ice reflects midlatitude emissions from ancient lead–silver mining and smelting. The few reported measurements have been extrapolated to infer the performance of ancient economies, including comparisons of economic productivity and growth during the Roman Republican and Imperial periods. These studies were based on sparse sampling and inaccurate dating, limiting understanding of trends and specific linkages. Here we show, using a precisely dated record of estimated lead emissions between 1100 BCE and 800 CE derived from subannually resolved measurements in Greenland ice and detailed atmospheric transport modeling, that annual European lead emissions closely varied with historical events, including imperial expansion, wars, and major plagues. Emissions rose coeval with Phoenician expansion, accelerated during expanded Carthaginian and Roman mining primarily in the Iberian Peninsula, and reached a maximum under the Roman Empire. Emissions fluctuated synchronously with wars and political instability particularly during the Roman Republic, and plunged coincident with two major plagues in the second and third centuries, remaining low for >500 years. Bullion in silver coinage declined in parallel, reflecting the importance of lead–silver mining in ancient economies. Our results indicate sustained economic growth during the first two centuries of the Roman Empire, terminated by the second-century Antonine plague.