The changing dynamics of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1: Next steps for management & science in North America

Species extinctions have defined the global biodiversity crisis, but extinction begins with loss in abundance of individuals that can result in compositional and functional changes of ecosystems. Using multiple and independent monitoring networks, we report population losses across much of the North American avifauna over 48 years, including once common species and from most biomes. Integration of range-wide population trajectories and size estimates indicates a net loss approaching 3 billion birds, or 29% of 1970 abundance. A continent-wide weather radar network also reveals a similarly steep decline in biomass passage of migrating birds over a recent 10-year period. This loss of bird abundance signals an urgent need to address threats to avert future avifaunal collapse and associated loss of ecosystem integrity, function and services.

In this review we examine the hypothesis that aquatic birds are the primordial source of all influenza viruses in other species and study the ecological features that permit the perpetuation of influenza viruses in aquatic avian species. Phylogenetic analysis of the nucleotide sequence of influenza A virus RNA segments coding for the spike proteins (HA, NA, and M2) and the internal proteins (PB2, PB1, PA, NP, M, and NS) from a wide range of hosts, geographical regions, and influenza A virus subtypes support the following conclusions. (i) Two partly overlapping reservoirs of influenza A viruses exist in migrating waterfowl and shorebirds throughout the world. These species harbor influenza viruses of all the known HA and NA subtypes. (ii) Influenza viruses have evolved into a number of host-specific lineages that are exemplified by the NP gene and include equine Prague/56, recent equine strains, classical swine and human strains, H13 gull strains, and all other avian strains. Other genes show similar patterns, but with extensive evidence of genetic reassortment. Geographical as well as host-specific lineages are evident. (iii) All of the influenza A viruses of mammalian sources originated from the avian gene pool, and it is possible that influenza B viruses also arose from the same source. (iv) The different virus lineages are predominantly host specific, but there are periodic exchanges of influenza virus genes or whole viruses between species, giving rise to pandemics of disease in humans, lower animals, and birds. (v) The influenza viruses currently circulating in humans and pigs in North America originated by transmission of all genes from the avian reservoir prior to the 1918 Spanish influenza pandemic; some of the genes have subsequently been replaced by others from the influenza gene pool in birds. (vi) The influenza virus gene pool in aquatic birds of the world is probably perpetuated by low-level transmission within that species throughout the year. (vii) There is evidence that most new human pandemic strains and variants have originated in southern China. (viii) There is speculation that pigs may serve as the intermediate host in genetic exchange between influenza viruses in avian and humans, but experimental evidence is lacking. (ix) Once the ecological properties of influenza viruses are understood, it may be possible to interdict the introduction of new influenza viruses into humans.

Novel subtypes of Asian-origin (Goose/Guangdong lineage) H5 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses belonging to clade 2.3.4, such as H5N2, H5N5, H5N6, and H5N8, have been identified in China since 2008 and have since evolved into four genetically distinct clade 2.3.4.4 groups (A–D). Since 2014, HPAI clade 2.3.4.4 viruses have spread rapidly via migratory wild aquatic birds and have evolved through reassortment with prevailing local low pathogenicity avian influenza viruses. Group A H5N8 viruses and its reassortant viruses caused outbreaks in wide geographic regions (Asia, Europe, and North America) during 2014–2015. Novel reassortant Group B H5N8 viruses caused outbreaks in Asia, Europe, and Africa during 2016–2017. Novel reassortant Group C H5N6 viruses caused outbreaks in Korea and Japan during the 2016–2017 winter season. Group D H5N6 viruses caused outbreaks in China and Vietnam. A wide range of avian species, including wild and domestic waterfowl, domestic poultry, and even zoo birds, seem to be permissive for infection by and/or transmission of clade 2.3.4.4 HPAI viruses. Further, compared to previous H5N1 HPAI viruses, these reassortant viruses show altered pathogenicity in birds. In this review, we discuss the evolution, global spread, and pathogenicity of H5 clade 2.3.4.4 HPAI viruses.