Climatic modeling of the distribution of Oxytropis triphylla (Fabaceae) by maximum entropy method

Abstract

Predictive spatial models of the distribution of Oxytropis triphylla (Pall.) Pers. (Fabaceae), an endemic species of Baikal Siberia, were generated in MAXENT computer program using maximum entropy method. Long-term data of air temperatures for every month of the year were downloaded from the world database of open access WorldClim. Modeling was performed separately for minimum, average and maximum temperatures. Each variable contribution to the modeling was the basis to select the key variables having higher influence on the obtained models. The selected 10 key variables are the following: minimum temperatures of December and January; average temperatures of October, December, January and February; maximum temperatures of November, December, January and February. Then a model of the second level was calculated using only the ten key variables. There are three northern localities in the zone of adverse temperature effects: cape Malyi Cheremshanyi, Chencha and Sakhuli villages (all of them are in the Republic of Buryatia). It has been experimentally confirmed that the values of the key variables along the coasts of the Maloe More of Lake Baikal (Irkutskaya Oblast) are the most favorable for habitation of O. triphylla in this part of its range.