Time-Varying Pattern of Mortality and Recurrence from Papillary Thyroid Cancer: Lessons from a Long-Term Follow-Up

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Abstract

<p class="first" id="d5776645e109">Background: Little is known about annual hazard rates of cancer mortality and recurrence for papillary thyroid cancer (PTC). This study investigated the time-varying pattern of cancer death and recurrence from PTC and independent prognostic factors for cause-specific mortality (CSM) and recurrence of PTC. Methods: This retrospective chart review enrolled 466 patients diagnosed with PTC who underwent curative initial surgery between April 1981 and December 1991 with a median follow-up of 18.4 years. Clinical characteristics, cancer mortality (primary endpoint), and recurrence (secondary endpoint) were ascertained. The failure rates of either death or recurrence were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier methods, and annual death/recurrence hazard was depicted using hazard function. Results: In this Japanese cohort where only 1.5% of patients received radioactive iodine therapy, the 10-, 20-, and 30-year CSM rates were 2.7%, 6.2%, and 8.6%, respectively. Eleven (44.0%) cases of death occurred within the first 10 years, whereas 10 (40.0%) and 4 (16.0%) cases occurred within 10-20 and 20-30 years after surgery, respectively. The 10-, 20-, and 30-year recurrence rates were 11.3%, 21.8%, and 29.4%, respectively. Forty-six (54.8%) cases of recurrence occurred within the first 10 years, predominantly within the first five years (31 cases; 36.9%), whereas 29 (34.5%), 7 (8.3%), and 2 (2.4%) cases occurred within 10-20, 20-30, and ≥30 years after surgery, respectively. Age ≥55 years was the only independent prognostic factor for CSM. Age ≥55 years, male, tumor size > 4 cm, extranodal extension, and positive pathological lymph node metastasis were independent prognostic factors for recurrence. The annual hazard curve of cancer mortality presented a double-peaked distribution, with a first peak at the 10th year, and the second peak reaching the maximum at the 20th year after surgery for the entire population. The annual hazard curve of recurrence showed a triple-peaked pattern, with surges at about 12, 22, and 29 years after surgery. Conclusions: Patients with PTC harboring at least one of the prognostic characteristics may be at persistent risk of cancer mortality and recurrence even 10 or more years after initial treatment. Understanding the hazard rate of PTC is key to creating more tailored treatment and surveillance. </p>

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2015 American Thyroid Association Management Guidelines for Adult Patients with Thyroid Nodules and Differentiated Thyroid Cancer: The American Thyroid Association Guidelines Task Force on Thyroid Nodules and Differentiated Thyroid Cancer.

Bryan Haugen, Erik Alexander, Keith Bible … (2016)

Thyroid nodules are a common clinical problem, and differentiated thyroid cancer is becoming increasingly prevalent. Since the American Thyroid Association's (ATA's) guidelines for the management of these disorders were revised in 2009, significant scientific advances have occurred in the field. The aim of these guidelines is to inform clinicians, patients, researchers, and health policy makers on published evidence relating to the diagnosis and management of thyroid nodules and differentiated thyroid cancer.

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Global, Regional, and National Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life-years for 32 Cancer Groups, 1990 to 2015

Christina Fitzmaurice, Christine Allen, Ryan M Barber … (2017)

IMPORTANCE Cancer is the second leading cause of death worldwide. Current estimates on the burden of cancer are needed for cancer control planning. OBJECTIVE To estimate mortality, incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 32 cancers in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. EVIDENCE REVIEW Cancer mortality was estimated using vital registration system data, cancer registry incidence data (transformed to mortality estimates using separately estimated mortality to incidence [MI] ratios), and verbal autopsy data. Cancer incidence was calculated by dividing mortality estimates through the modeled MI ratios. To calculate cancer prevalence, MI ratios were used to model survival. To calculate YLDs, prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights. The YLLs were estimated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the reference life expectancy. DALYs were estimated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs. A sociodemographic index (SDI) was created for each location based on income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Countries were categorized by SDI quintiles to summarize results. FINDINGS In 2015, there were 17.5 million cancer cases worldwide and 8.7 million deaths. Between 2005 and 2015, cancer cases increased by 33%, with population aging contributing 16%, population growth 13%, and changes in age-specific rates contributing 4%. For men, the most common cancer globally was prostate cancer (1.6 million cases). Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer was the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs in men (1.2 million deaths and 25.9 million DALYs). For women, the most common cancer was breast cancer (2.4 million cases). Breast cancer was also the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs for women (523 000 deaths and 15.1 million DALYs). Overall, cancer caused 208.3 million DALYs worldwide in 2015 for both sexes combined. Between 2005 and 2015, age-standardized incidence rates for all cancers combined increased in 174 of 195 countries or territories. Age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) for all cancers combined decreased within that timeframe in 140 of 195 countries or territories. Countries with an increase in the ASDR due to all cancers were largely located on the African continent. Of all cancers, deaths between 2005 and 2015 decreased significantly for Hodgkin lymphoma (−6.1% [95% uncertainty interval (UI), −10.6% to −1.3%]). The number of deaths also decreased for esophageal cancer, stomach cancer, and chronic myeloid leukemia, although these results were not statistically significant. CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE As part of the epidemiological transition, cancer incidence is expected to increase in the future, further straining limited health care resources. Appropriate allocation of resources for cancer prevention, early diagnosis, and curative and palliative care requires detailed knowledge of the local burden of cancer. The GBD 2015 study results demonstrate that progress is possible in the war against cancer. However, the major findings also highlight an unmet need for cancer prevention efforts, including tobacco control, vaccination, and the promotion of physical activity and a healthy diet.

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Trends in Thyroid Cancer Incidence and Mortality in the United States, 1974-2013

Hyeyeun Lim, Susan S Devesa, Julie Sosa … (2017)

Thyroid cancer incidence has increased substantially in the United States over the last 4 decades, driven largely by increases in papillary thyroid cancer. It is unclear whether the increasing incidence of papillary thyroid cancer has been related to thyroid cancer mortality trends.