Estimation of the relationship between the persistent decrease of the suicide rate and the changes in sociodemographic composition in Hungary between 1990 and 2011

Abstract

From the end of the 1980s, the Hungarian suicide rate, which had been until that point the highest in the world for decades, has decreased drastically. The reason behind this decrease was probably due to the changes in numerous and often interlinked risk factors. Studies on this topic have mostly ignored to interrogate to what extent the change of the population composition, for example the improvement of educational level, contributed to the decrease of the rate in the given period? Our aim was to assess the contribution of changes in some sociodemographic factors to the decrease of the suicide rate in Hungary. During the analysis, data from 1990 were compared with data from 2011. For the statistical calculations, the method of “Standardization and Decomposition (SDA)” was used, which according to our best knowledge, has not yet been applied in Hungarian suicide studies. The results show that the improvement of educational level helped to decrease the rate for men by about a third, while for women only by about a tenth. However, the benefit of the improvement in educational attainment during the period investigated was significantly offset by the changes primarily in marital status (the ratios of unmarried and divorced subjects increased for both genders) and in age distribution (the ratio of the elderly persons increased for both genders). The results of our study emphasise the inverse relationship between suicide and educational level and support the hypothesis that we can regard educational policy as indirect health policy.