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      ABC Fractional Order Vaccination Model for Covid-19 with Self-Protective Measures

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          Abstract

          A mathematical model delineating the control strategies in transference of Covid-19 pandemic is examined through Atangana–Baleanu Caputo type fractional derivatives. The total count of people under observation is classified into Susceptible, Vaccinated, Infected and Protected groups (SVIP). The designed model studies the efficiency of vaccination and personal precautions incorporated qualitatively by every individual via fixed point theorem. Stability of the system has been investigated with spectral characterisation of Ulam Hyer’s kind. Numerical interpolation has been derived by Adam’s semi-analytical technique and we have approximated the solution. We have proved the theoretical analysis through graphical simulations that vaccination and self protective interventions are the significant role to decrease the contagious expansion of the virus among the people in process.

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          Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia

          Abstract Background The initial cases of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)–infected pneumonia (NCIP) occurred in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in December 2019 and January 2020. We analyzed data on the first 425 confirmed cases in Wuhan to determine the epidemiologic characteristics of NCIP. Methods We collected information on demographic characteristics, exposure history, and illness timelines of laboratory-confirmed cases of NCIP that had been reported by January 22, 2020. We described characteristics of the cases and estimated the key epidemiologic time-delay distributions. In the early period of exponential growth, we estimated the epidemic doubling time and the basic reproductive number. Results Among the first 425 patients with confirmed NCIP, the median age was 59 years and 56% were male. The majority of cases (55%) with onset before January 1, 2020, were linked to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, as compared with 8.6% of the subsequent cases. The mean incubation period was 5.2 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.1 to 7.0), with the 95th percentile of the distribution at 12.5 days. In its early stages, the epidemic doubled in size every 7.4 days. With a mean serial interval of 7.5 days (95% CI, 5.3 to 19), the basic reproductive number was estimated to be 2.2 (95% CI, 1.4 to 3.9). Conclusions On the basis of this information, there is evidence that human-to-human transmission has occurred among close contacts since the middle of December 2019. Considerable efforts to reduce transmission will be required to control outbreaks if similar dynamics apply elsewhere. Measures to prevent or reduce transmission should be implemented in populations at risk. (Funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China and others.)
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            Characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19

            Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a highly transmissible and pathogenic coronavirus that emerged in late 2019 and has caused a pandemic of acute respiratory disease, named ‘coronavirus disease 2019’ (COVID-19), which threatens human health and public safety. In this Review, we describe the basic virology of SARS-CoV-2, including genomic characteristics and receptor use, highlighting its key difference from previously known coronaviruses. We summarize current knowledge of clinical, epidemiological and pathological features of COVID-19, as well as recent progress in animal models and antiviral treatment approaches for SARS-CoV-2 infection. We also discuss the potential wildlife hosts and zoonotic origin of this emerging virus in detail.
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              Outbreak of pneumonia of unknown etiology in Wuhan, China: The mystery and the miracle

              Since December 2019, a total of 41 cases of pneumonia of unknown etiology have been confirmed in Wuhan city, Hubei Province, China. Wuhan city is a major transportation hub with a population of more than 11 million people. Most of the patients visited a local fish and wild animal market last month. At a national press conference held today, Dr Jianguo Xu, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, who led a scientific team announced that a new‐type coronavirus, tentatively named by World Health Organization as the 2019‐new coronavirus (2019‐nCoV), had caused this outbreak. 1 The 2019‐nCoV has a different coronavirus‐specific nucleic acid sequence from known human coronavirus species, which are similar to some of the beta coronaviruses identified in bats. 2 , 3 The virus‐specific nucleic acid sequences were detected in lung fluid, blood and throat swab samples in 15 patients and the virus that was isolated showed a typical coronavirus appearance under electron microscopy. Further research will be conducted to better understand the new coronavirus to develop antiviral agents and vaccines. 4 We applauded the excellent job that has been done so far. The infection was first described in December. Within 9 days, a special team consisted of physicians, scientists and epidemiologists who ruled out several extremely contagious pathogens including SARS, which killed hundreds of people more than a decade ago, and MERS. This has surely alleviated environmental concerns as Hong Kong authorities had quickly stepped up the disinfection of trains and airplanes and checks of passengers due to this outbreak. Most of the patients visited the fish and wild animal market last month in Wuhan. This fish and wild animal market also sold live animals such as poultry, bats, marmots, and snakes. All patients received prompt supportive treatment in quarantine. Among them, seven patients were in serious condition and one patient died. All of the 42 patients so far confirmed were from China except one Thailand patient who was a traveler from Wuhan. Eight patients have been cured of the disease and were discharged from the hospital last week. The 2019‐nCoV now have been isolated from multiple patients and appears to be the culprit. But the mystery has not been completely solved yet. Until there is a formal published scientific manuscript, the facts can be argued, particularly regarding causality despite these facts having been officially announced. The data collected so far is not enough to confirm the causal relationship between the new‐type coronavirus and the respiratory disease based on classical Koch's postulates or modified ones as suggested by Fredricks and Relman. 5 The viral‐specific nucleic acids were only discovered in 15 patients, and successful virus culture was extremely limited to only a few patients. There remains considerable work to be done to differentiate between colonization, shedding, and infection. Additional strains of the 2019‐nCoV need to be isolated to study their homologies. It is expected that antigens and monoclonal antibodies will be developed so serology can be used to confirm previous and acute infection status. The episode demonstrates further the need for rapid and accurate detection and identification methods that can be used in the local hospitals and clinics bearing the burden of identifying and treating patients. Recently, the Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments (CLIA) of 1988 has waived highly sensitive and specific molecular devices known as CLIA‐waived devices so that these devices are gradually becoming available for point of care testing. Finally, the epidemiological similarity between this outbreak and that of SARS in 2002‐2003 6 is striking. SARS was then traced to animal markets 7 and eventually to palm civets. 8 Later bats were identified as animal reservoirs. 9 Could this novel coronavirus be originated from wild animals? The family Coronaviridae includes two subfamilies. 10 One, the subfamily Coronavirinae, contains a substantial number of pathogens of mammals that individually cause a remarkable variety of diseases, including pneumonia. In humans, coronaviruses are among the spectrum of viruses that cause the common cold as well as more severe respiratory disease—specifically SARS and MERS, which are both zoonoses. The second subfamily, Torovirinae, contains pathogens of both terrestrial and aquatic animals. The genus Torovirus includes the type species, equine torovirus (Berne virus), which was first isolated from a horse with diarrhea, and the Breda virus, which was first isolated from neonatal calves with diarrhea. White bream virus from fish is the type species of the genus Bafinivirus. However, there is no evidence so far that the seafood from the fish and animal market caused 2019‐nCoV‐associated pneumonia. This epidemiologic similarity clearly provides a starting point for the further investigation of this outbreak. In the meantime, this fish and animal market has been closed until the epidemiological work determines the animal host of this novel coronavirus. Only then will the miracle be complete.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                vijidaya105@gmail.com
                besi.roselyn@gmail.com
                Journal
                Int J Appl Comput Math
                Int J Appl Comput Math
                International Journal of Applied and Computational Mathematics
                Springer India (New Delhi )
                2349-5103
                2199-5796
                12 May 2022
                2022
                : 8
                : 3
                : 130
                Affiliations
                [1 ]GRID grid.464713.3, ISNI 0000 0004 1777 5670, Department of Mathematics, , Vel Tech Rangarajan Dr. Sagunthala R & D Institute of Science and Technology, ; Avadi, Tamilnadu 600062 India
                [2 ]PG and Research Department of Mathematics, Auxilium College, Vellore, Tamilnadu 632006 India
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3486-7054
                Article
                1316
                10.1007/s40819-022-01316-2
                9096354
                5d6e65de-37c6-4c84-8d13-ee489ddd8923
                © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature India Private Limited 2022

                This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.

                History
                : 2 April 2022
                Categories
                Original Paper
                Custom metadata
                © Springer Nature India Private Limited 2022

                covid-19 pandemic,abc derivatives,multi control measures,fixed point theorems,stability of hyer ulam’s kind,adam’s bashforth interpolation

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