Prediction model and prognostic index to estimate clinically relevant pelvic organ prolapse in a general female population

Abstract

Introduction and hypothesis

Estimation on prevalence and distribution of pelvic organ prolapse (POP) signs in a general female population is difficult. We therefore developed and validated a prediction model and prognostic instrument.

Methods

Questionnaires were sent to a general female population (45–85 years). A random sample underwent vaginal examination for POP (POPQ). A prediction model was developed using multivariate analysis and validated in a subgroup of participants.

Results

Positive questionnaire-response rate was 46.8% (1,397 of 2,979). From the questionnaire group, 649 women were vaginally examined (46.5%). Prevalence of clinically relevant POP was 21%. Multivariate analysis demonstrated significantly higher odds ratios on the report of vaginal bulging, parity ≥2 and a mother with POP. The receiver operating characteristic curve showed areas under the curve of 0.672 and 0.640.

Conclusions

The prevalence of POP at or beyond the hymen could be estimated in a general female population using our prediction model with 17 questions and our POP score chart with eight questions.