Risk of Late Relapse or Reinfection With Hepatitis C Virus After Achieving a Sustained Virological Response: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Abstract

Sustained virological response is durable in patients treated for hepatitis C virus. Recurrence rates are generally low but increase in patient populations with risk factors for reinfection. The evidence supports the notion that risk of recurrence is driven by reinfection.

Abstract

Background.  Treatment for hepatitis C virus (HCV) can lead to sustained virological response (SVR) in over 90% of people. Subsequent recurrence of HCV, either from late relapse or reinfection, reverses the beneficial effects of SVR.

Methods.  A search identified studies analysing HCV recurrence post-SVR. The recurrence rate for each study was calculated using events/person years of follow-up (PYFU). Results were pooled using a random-effects model and used to calculate 5-year recurrence risk. Three patient groups were analysed: (1) Mono-HCV infected “low-risk” patients; (2) Mono-HCV infected “high-risk” patients (injecting drug users or prisoners); (3) human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/HCV coinfected patients. Recurrence was defined as confirmed HCV RNA detectability post-SVR.

Results.  In the 43 studies of HCV mono-infected “low-risk” patients (n = 7969) the pooled recurrence rate was 1.85/1000 PYFU (95% confidence interval [CI], .71–3.35; I ² = 73%) leading to a summary 5-year recurrence risk of 0.95% (95% CI, .35%–1.69%). For the 14 studies of HCV monoinfected “high-risk” patients (n = 771) the pooled recurrence rate was 22.32/1000 PYFU (95% CI, 13.07–33.46; I ² = 27%) leading to a summary 5-year risk of 10.67% (95% CI, 6.38%–15.66%). For the 4 studies of HIV/HCV coinfected patients the pooled recurrence rate was 32.02/1000 PYFU (95% CI, .00–123.49; I ² = 96%) leading to a summary 5-year risk of 15.02% (95% CI, .00%–48.26%). The higher pooled estimates of recurrence in the high-risk and coinfected cohorts were driven by an increase in reinfection rather than late relapse.

Conclusions.  SVR appears durable in the majority of patients at 5 years post-treatment. The large difference in 5 year event rate by risk group is driven mainly by an increased reinfection risk.