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      National health expenditures projections through 2030

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          Abstract

          If current laws and practices continue, health expenditures in the United States will reach $1.7 trillion by the year 2000, an amount equal to 18.1 percent of the Nation's gross domestic product (GDP). By the year 2030, as America's baby boomers enter their seventies and eighties, health spending will top $16 trillion, or 32 percent of GDP. The projections presented here incorporate the assumptions and conclusions of the Medicare trustees in their 1992 report to Congress on the status of Medicare, and the 1992 President's budget estimates of Medicaid outlays.

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          Most cited references11

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          Health expenditures by age group, 1977 and 1987

          In recent years, concern has increased over the rapid growth of health care spending, especially spending on behalf of the aged. In 1987, those 65 years or over comprised 12 percent of the population but consumed 36 percent of total personal health care. This article is an examination of the current and future composition of the population and effects on health care spending. National health accounts aggregates for 1977 and 1987 are split into three age groups, and the consumption patterns of each group are discussed. The variations in spending within the aged cohort are also examined.
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            National health expenditures, 1990

            During 1990, health expenditures as a share of gross national product rose to 12.2 percent, up from 11.6 percent in 1989. This dramatic increase is the second largest increase in the past three decades. The national health expenditure estimates presented in this article document rapidly rising health care costs and provide a context for understanding the health care financing crisis facing the Nation today. The 1990 national health expenditures incorporate the most recently available data. They differ from historical estimates presented in the preceding article. The length of time and complicated process of producing projections required use of 1989 national health expenditures—data available prior to the completion of the 1990 estimates presented here.
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              National health expenditures, 1986-2000

              (1987)
              Patterns of spending for health during 1986 and beyond reflect a mixture of adherence to and change from historical trends. From a level of $458 billion in 1986—10.9 percent of the GNP—national health expenditures are projected to reach $1.5 trillion by the year 2000—15.0 percent of the GNP. This article presents a provisional estimate of spending in 1986 and projections of spending (under the assumption of current law) through the year 2000. Also discussed are the effects of the demographic composition of the population on spending for health, and how spending would increase in the future simply as a result of the evolution of that composition.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Health Care Financ Rev
                Health Care Financ Rev
                HCFR
                Health Care Financing Review
                CENTERS for MEDICARE & MEDICAID SERVICES
                0195-8631
                1554-9887
                Fall 1992
                : 14
                : 1
                : 1-29
                Article
                hcfr-14-1-1
                4193324
                10124432
                62472adc-ecd2-4528-b4c1-978f7db27058
                Copyright @ 1992
                History
                Categories
                Statistical Report

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