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      The air quality changes and related mortality benefits during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic in China: Results from a nationwide forecasting study

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          Abstract

          Air quality changes during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in China has attracted increasing attention. However, more details in the changes, future air quality trends, and related death benefits on a national scale are still unclear. In this study, a total of 352 Chinese cities were included. We collected air pollutants (including fine particulate matter [PM 2.5], inhalable particulate matter [PM 10], nitrogen dioxide [NO 2], and ozone [O 3]) data for each city from January 2015 to July 2020. Convolutional neural network-quantile regression (CNN-QR) forecasting model was used to predict pollutants concentrations from February 2020 to January 2021 and the changes in air pollutants were compared. The relationships between the socioeconomic factors and the changes and the avoided mortality due to the changes were further estimated. We found sharp declines in all air pollutants from February 2020 to January 2021. Specifically, PM 2.5, PM 10, NO 2, and O 3 would drop by 3.86 μg/m 3 (10.81%), 4.84 μg/m 3 (7.65%), 0.55 μg/m 3 (2.18%), and 3.14 μg/m 3 (3.36%), respectively. The air quality changes were significantly related to many of the socioeconomic factors, including the size of built-up area, gross regional product, population density, gross regional product per capita, and secondary industry share. And the improved air quality would avoid a total of 7237 p.m. 2.5-related deaths (95% confidence intervals [CI]: 4935, 9209), 9484 p.m. 10-related deaths (95%CI: 5362, 13604), 4249 NO 2-related deaths (95%CI: 3305, 5193), and 6424 O 3-related deaths (95%CI: 3480, 9367), respectively. Our study shows that the interventions to control COVID-19 would improve air quality, which had significant relationships with some socioeconomic factors. Additionally, improved air quality would reduce the number of non-accidental deaths.

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          A Novel Coronavirus from Patients with Pneumonia in China, 2019

          Na Zhu, Dingyu Zhang, Wenling Wang … (2020)
          Summary In December 2019, a cluster of patients with pneumonia of unknown cause was linked to a seafood wholesale market in Wuhan, China. A previously unknown betacoronavirus was discovered through the use of unbiased sequencing in samples from patients with pneumonia. Human airway epithelial cells were used to isolate a novel coronavirus, named 2019-nCoV, which formed a clade within the subgenus sarbecovirus, Orthocoronavirinae subfamily. Different from both MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV, 2019-nCoV is the seventh member of the family of coronaviruses that infect humans. Enhanced surveillance and further investigation are ongoing. (Funded by the National Key Research and Development Program of China and the National Major Project for Control and Prevention of Infectious Disease in China.)
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            A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin

            Peng Zhou, Xing-Lou Yang, Xian-Guang Wang … (2020)
            Since the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) 18 years ago, a large number of SARS-related coronaviruses (SARSr-CoVs) have been discovered in their natural reservoir host, bats 1–4 . Previous studies have shown that some bat SARSr-CoVs have the potential to infect humans 5–7 . Here we report the identification and characterization of a new coronavirus (2019-nCoV), which caused an epidemic of acute respiratory syndrome in humans in Wuhan, China. The epidemic, which started on 12 December 2019, had caused 2,794 laboratory-confirmed infections including 80 deaths by 26 January 2020. Full-length genome sequences were obtained from five patients at an early stage of the outbreak. The sequences are almost identical and share 79.6% sequence identity to SARS-CoV. Furthermore, we show that 2019-nCoV is 96% identical at the whole-genome level to a bat coronavirus. Pairwise protein sequence analysis of seven conserved non-structural proteins domains show that this virus belongs to the species of SARSr-CoV. In addition, 2019-nCoV virus isolated from the bronchoalveolar lavage fluid of a critically ill patient could be neutralized by sera from several patients. Notably, we confirmed that 2019-nCoV uses the same cell entry receptor—angiotensin converting enzyme II (ACE2)—as SARS-CoV.
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              Association of Public Health Interventions With the Epidemiology of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Wuhan, China

              An Lian Pan, Li Liu, Chaolong Wang … (2020)
              Was there an association of public health interventions with improved control of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China? In this cohort study that included 32 583 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 in Wuhan from December 8, 2019, through March 8, 2020, the institution of interventions including cordons sanitaire , traffic restriction, social distancing, home quarantine, centralized quarantine, and universal symptom survey was temporally associated with reduced effective reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 (secondary transmission) and the number of confirmed cases per day across age groups, sex, and geographic regions. A series of multifaceted public health interventions was temporally associated with improved control of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan and may inform public health policy in other countries and regions. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a pandemic, and it is unknown whether a combination of public health interventions can improve control of the outbreak. To evaluate the association of public health interventions with the epidemiological features of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan by 5 periods according to key events and interventions. In this cohort study, individual-level data on 32 583 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases reported between December 8, 2019, and March 8, 2020, were extracted from the municipal Notifiable Disease Report System, including patients’ age, sex, residential location, occupation, and severity classification. Nonpharmaceutical public health interventions including cordons sanitaire , traffic restriction, social distancing, home confinement, centralized quarantine, and universal symptom survey. Rates of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 infections (defined as the number of cases per day per million people), across age, sex, and geographic locations were calculated across 5 periods: December 8 to January 9 (no intervention), January 10 to 22 (massive human movement due to the Chinese New Year holiday), January 23 to February 1 ( cordons sanitaire , traffic restriction and home quarantine), February 2 to 16 (centralized quarantine and treatment), and February 17 to March 8 (universal symptom survey). The effective reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 (an indicator of secondary transmission) was also calculated over the periods. Among 32 583 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases, the median patient age was 56.7 years (range, 0-103; interquartile range, 43.4-66.8) and 16 817 (51.6%) were women. The daily confirmed case rate peaked in the third period and declined afterward across geographic regions and sex and age groups, except for children and adolescents, whose rate of confirmed cases continued to increase. The daily confirmed case rate over the whole period in local health care workers (130.5 per million people [95% CI, 123.9-137.2]) was higher than that in the general population (41.5 per million people [95% CI, 41.0-41.9]). The proportion of severe and critical cases decreased from 53.1% to 10.3% over the 5 periods. The severity risk increased with age: compared with those aged 20 to 39 years (proportion of severe and critical cases, 12.1%), elderly people (≥80 years) had a higher risk of having severe or critical disease (proportion, 41.3%; risk ratio, 3.61 [95% CI, 3.31-3.95]) while younger people (<20 years) had a lower risk (proportion, 4.1%; risk ratio, 0.47 [95% CI, 0.31-0.70]). The effective reproduction number fluctuated above 3.0 before January 26, decreased to below 1.0 after February 6, and decreased further to less than 0.3 after March 1. A series of multifaceted public health interventions was temporally associated with improved control of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China. These findings may inform public health policy in other countries and regions. This population epidemiology study examines associations between phases of nonpharmaceutical public health interventions (social distancing, centralized quarantine, home confinement, and others) and rates of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 infection in Wuhan, China, between December 2019 and early March 2020.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Journal ID (nlm-ta): J Clean Prod
                Journal ID (iso-abbrev): J Clean Prod
                Title: Journal of Cleaner Production
                Publisher: Elsevier Ltd.
                ISSN (Print): 0959-6526
                ISSN (Electronic): 1879-1786
                Publication date PMC-release: 1 May 2021
                Publication date (Print): 25 July 2021
                Publication date (Electronic): 1 May 2021
                Volume: 308
                Page: 127327
                Affiliations
                [a ]Department of Occupational & Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, 430030, China
                [b ]Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, 430030, China
                [c ]Key Laboratory of Environment and Health, Ministry of Education & Ministry of Environmental Protection, And State Key Laboratory of Environmental Health (Incubating), School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, 430030, China
                Author notes
                [∗ ]Corresponding author. Key Laboratory of Environment and Health, Ministry of Education & Ministry of Environmental Protection, and State Key Laboratory of Environmental Health (Incubating), School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, 430030, China.
                Article
                Publisher Item ID: S0959-6526(21)01546-8 Publisher ID: 127327
                DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.127327
                PMC ID: 8525877
                SO-VID: 6b6c87ed-f7ba-46a5-a898-055fecc41d75
                Copyright © © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
                License:

                Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.

                History
                Date received : 10 November 2020
                Date revision received : 25 April 2021
                Date accepted : 27 April 2021
                Categories
                Subject: Article

                Keywords: air quality changes,covid-19,cnn-qr forecasting model
                Data availability:
                Keywords: air quality changes, covid-19, cnn-qr forecasting model

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