Tendência da proporção de baixo peso ao nascer, no período de 1994-2004, por microrregião do Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil: uma análise multinível

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Abstract

O objetivo deste estudo ecológico longitudinal foi analisar a tendência da proporção de baixo peso ao nascer no Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil, de 1994 a 2004, utilizando a análise de dados de painel e regressão linear multinível (dois níveis: microrregião e tempo (anos)) para estimar os fatores de risco associados à proporção de baixo peso ao nascer. A proporção de baixo peso ao nascer teve um crescimento anual de 1,2%, e o modelo multinível mostrou que as proporções diferem entre as microrregiões e aumentam em associação com os anos, com o aumento do percentual de prematuros, com o aumento do coeficiente de mortalidade infantil e com o aumento do percentual de cesarianas. Entre as microrregiões, as proporções de baixo peso ao nascer variam positivamente com o percentual de urbanização, com os gastos com o Sistema Único de Saúde e negativamente com o percentual de participação na atividade econômica. O modelo multinível mostrou que a maior parte da variação nas proporções de baixo peso ao nascer se deve aos efeitos da microrregião de moradia da mãe do nascido vivo.

Translated abstract

The aim of this longitudinal ecological study was to analyze the trend in the proportion of low birth weight in Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil, from 1994 to 2004 by panel data analysis and multilevel linear regression (two levels: by micro-region and time in years) to estimate risk factors associated with low birth weight. The proportion of low birth weight increased by 1.2% per year, and the multilevel model showed that the proportions differed between the micro-regions and increased over time, with the increase in the percentage of premature newborns, with the increase in the infant mortality rate, and with the increase in the cesarean rate. Among the micro-regions, the proportions of low birth weight varied positively with the urbanization rate and expenditures in the Unified National Health System and negatively with rate of participation in the workforce. According to the multilevel model, most of the variation in proportions of low birth weight was due to the effects of the micro-region of residence of the newborn's mother.

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Bringing context back into epidemiology: variables and fallacies in multilevel analysis.

A Diez-Roux (1998)

A large portion of current epidemiologic research is based on methodologic individualism: the notion that the distribution of health and disease in populations can be explained exclusively in terms of the characteristics of individuals. The present paper discusses the need to include group- or macro-level variables in epidemiologic studies, thus incorporating multiple levels of determination in the study of health outcomes. These types of analyses, which have been called contextual or multi-level analyses, challenge epidemiologists to develop theoretical models of disease causation that extend across levels and explain how group-level and individual-level variables interact in shaping health and disease. They also raise a series of methodological issues, including the need to select the appropriate contextual unit and contextual variables, to correctly specify the individual-level model, and, in some cases, to account for residual correlation between individuals within contexts. Despite its complexities, multilevel analysis holds potential for reemphasizing the role of macro-level variables in shaping health and disease in populations.