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      Disaster Risk Science: A Geographical Perspective and a Research Framework

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          Abstract

          In this article, we recall the United Nations’ 30-year journey in disaster risk reduction strategy and framework, review the latest progress and key scientific and technological questions related to the United Nations disaster risk reduction initiatives, and summarize the framework and contents of disaster risk science research. The object of disaster risk science research is the “disaster system” consisting of hazard, the geographical environment, and exposed units, with features of regionality, interconnectedness, coupling, and complexity. Environmental stability, hazard threat, and socioeconomic vulnerability together determine the way that disasters are formed, establish the spatial extent of disaster impact, and generate the scale of losses. In the formation of a disaster, a conducive environment is the prerequisite, a hazard is the necessary condition, and socioeconomic exposure is the sufficient condition. The geographical environment affects local hazard intensity and therefore can change the pattern of loss distribution. Regional multi-hazard, disaster chain, and disaster compound could induce complex impacts, amplifying or attenuating hazard intensity and changing the scope of affected areas. In the light of research progress, particularly in the context of China, we propose a three-layer disaster risk science disciplinary structure, which contains three pillars (disaster science, disaster technology, and disaster governance), nine core areas, and 27 research fields. Based on these elements, we discuss the frontiers in disaster risk science research.

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          Rapid growth of the US wildland-urban interface raises wildfire risk

          When houses are built close to forests or other types of natural vegetation, they pose two problems related to wildfires. First, there will be more wildfires due to human ignitions. Second, wildfires that occur will pose a greater risk to lives and homes, they will be hard to fight, and letting natural fires burn becomes impossible. We examined the number of houses that have been built since 1990 in the United States in or near natural vegetation, in an area known as the wildland-urban interface (WUI), and found that a large number of houses have been built there. Approximately one in three houses and one in ten hectares are now in the WUI. These WUI growth trends will exacerbate wildfire problems in the future. The wildland-urban interface (WUI) is the area where houses and wildland vegetation meet or intermingle, and where wildfire problems are most pronounced. Here we report that the WUI in the United States grew rapidly from 1990 to 2010 in terms of both number of new houses (from 30.8 to 43.4 million; 41% growth) and land area (from 581,000 to 770,000 km 2 ; 33% growth), making it the fastest-growing land use type in the conterminous United States. The vast majority of new WUI areas were the result of new housing (97%), not related to an increase in wildland vegetation. Within the perimeter of recent wildfires (1990–2015), there were 286,000 houses in 2010, compared with 177,000 in 1990. Furthermore, WUI growth often results in more wildfire ignitions, putting more lives and houses at risk. Wildfire problems will not abate if recent housing growth trends continue.
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            Global trends in tropical cyclone risk

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              Connecting slow earthquakes to huge earthquakes.

              Slow earthquakes are characterized by a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors and seismic radiation patterns that differ from those of traditional earthquakes. However, slow earthquakes and huge megathrust earthquakes can have common slip mechanisms and are located in neighboring regions of the seismogenic zone. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Slow earthquakes may function as stress meters because of their high sensitivity to stress changes in the seismogenic zone. Episodic stress transfer to megathrust source faults leads to an increased probability of triggering huge earthquakes if the adjacent locked region is critically loaded. Careful and precise monitoring of slow earthquakes may provide new information on the likelihood of impending huge earthquakes.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                spj@bnu.edu.cn
                Journal
                Int J Disaster Risk Sci
                International Journal of Disaster Risk Science
                Beijing Normal University Press (Beijing )
                2095-0055
                2192-6395
                21 August 2020
                21 August 2020
                : 1-15
                Affiliations
                [1 ]GRID grid.20513.35, ISNI 0000 0004 1789 9964, State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, , Beijing Normal University, ; Beijing, 100875 China
                [2 ]GRID grid.20513.35, ISNI 0000 0004 1789 9964, Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disasters, Ministry of Education, , Beijing Normal University, ; Beijing, 100875 China
                [3 ]GRID grid.419897.a, ISNI 0000 0004 0369 313X, Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, , Ministry of Emergency Management and Ministry of Education, ; Beijing, 100875 China
                [4 ]GRID grid.20513.35, ISNI 0000 0004 1789 9964, Faculty of Geographical Science, , Beijing Normal University, ; Beijing, 100875 China
                [5 ]Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability, People’s Government of Qinghai Province and Beijing Normal University, Xining, 810016 China
                [6 ]GRID grid.424922.b, Global Climate Forum, ; 10178 Berlin, Germany
                [7 ]GRID grid.258799.8, ISNI 0000 0004 0372 2033, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, , Kyoto University, ; Kyoto, 611-0011 Japan
                Article
                296
                10.1007/s13753-020-00296-5
                7441307
                71a99cf5-57de-470d-a2f3-2de114d51de8
                © The Author(s) 2020

                Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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                disaster system,disaster science,disaster technology,disaster governance,research framework,research frontiers

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