Trends in death from circulatory diseases in Brazil between 1979 and 1996

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Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the trends in mortality due to circulatory diseases in men and women aged > or = 30 years in Brazil from 1979 to 1996. METHODS: We analyzed population count data obtained from the IBGE Foundation and mortality data obtained from the System of Information on Mortality of the DATASUS of the Ministry of Health. RESULTS: Circulatory diseases, ischemic heart disease, and cerebrovascular disease were the major causes of death in men and women in Brazil. The standardized age coefficient for circulatory disease in men aged > or = 30 years ranged from 620 to 506 deaths/100,000 inhabitants and in women from 483 to 383 deaths/100,000 inhabitants for the years 1979 and 1996, respectively. In men, the mean coefficient for the period was 586.25 deaths with a significant trend towards a decrease (P<0.001) and a decline of 8.25 deaths/year. In women, the mean coefficient for the period was 439.58 deaths, a significant trend towards a decrease (P<0.001) and a rate of decline of 7.53 deaths/year. The same significant trend towards a decrease in death (P<0.001) was observed for ischemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease. Risk of death from these causes was always higher for men of any age group (P<0.001). Cerebrovascular disease was the primary cause of death in women. CONCLUSION: Although circulatory diseases have been the major cause of mortality in men and women in the Brazilian population, with a greater participation by cerebrovascular diseases, a trend towards a decrease in the risk of death from these causes is being observed.

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The recent decline in mortality from coronary heart disease, 1980-1990. The effect of secular trends in risk factors and treatment.

Aliyah M. Weinstein, M Mittleman, Anna Tosteson … (1997)

To examine whether secular trends in risk factor levels and improvements in treatment can account for the observed decline in coronary heart disease mortality in the United States from 1980 to 1990 and to analyze the proportional contribution of these changes. Literature review, US statistics, health surveys, and ongoing clinical trials. Data representative of the US situation nationwide reported in adequate detail. A computer-simulation state-transition model of the US population between the ages of 35 and 84 years was developed to forecast coronary mortality. The input variables were estimated such that the combination of values led to an adequate agreement with reported coronary mortality figures. Subsequently, secular trends were modeled. Actual coronary mortality in 1990 was 34% (127,000 deaths) lower than would be predicted if risk factor levels, case-fatality rates, and event rates in those with and without coronary disease remained the same as in 1980. When secular changes in these factors were included in the model, predicted coronary mortality in 1990 was within 3% (10,000 deaths) of the observed mortality and explained 92% of the decline; only 25% of the decline was explained by primary prevention, while 29% was explained by secondary reduction in risk factors in patients with coronary disease and 43% by other improvements in treatment in patients with coronary disease. These results suggest that primary and secondary risk factor reductions explain about 50% of the striking decline in coronary mortality in the United States between 1980 and 1990 but that more than 70% of the overall decline in mortality has occurred among patients with coronary disease.